Panthers vs. Falcons: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

The last time the Carolina Panthers played the Atlanta Falcons, things were over quickly. Two weeks ago, the teams met in Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Panthers laughed their way to a 38-0 victory in a game that was really out of reach by the time the first quarter ended. Ted Ginn Jr.’s two long touchdown receptions set the tone for the game, which saw the Panthers pull their starters before the end of the third quarter.

While that was the largest victory the Panthers have ever had over the Falcons, it’s beginning to form a pattern. In their previous matchup, nearly a year to the day from Sunday’s contest, the Panthers kept the Falcons out of the end zone on their way to a 34-3 victory. The Falcons haven’t scored a touchdown against Carolina since November 16, 2014, and have lost five of the last six games between the two clubs.

That’s music to the Panthers’ ears—another win would clinch home-field advantage. It’s not music to the Falcons’ ears, though—they need a win to keep their microscopic playoff hopes alive. The Panthers hope to just keep rolling along; let’s take a look back at how they destroyed Atlanta two weeks ago and how they can get a repeat this week on the road.

Offensive Game Plan

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Cam Newton has been on fire over the second half of the season, and the Atlanta game was no exception. Newton was 15-of-20 for 265 yards and three touchdowns before stepping aside for Derek Anderson. He had particular luck throwing beyond 20 yards in the air, where he completed all four pass attempts for 170 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t even need to add anything on the ground, picking up only four yards on three carries.

Robert Alford was the biggest victim—Newton targeted him 10 times, and he allowed seven receptions for 139 yards and a pair of touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus. He was even caught simply quitting on Ginn’s 74-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter, though he may have believed Ginn had stepped out of bounds.

This is normal for the Falcons pass defense.  Desmond Trufant is a solid cover corner and has helped the Falcons be above-average in coverage against top opposing receivers. It’s the secondary receivers—and especially ones who can go deep down the center of the field like Ginn can—that the Falcons have struggled with this season.

In general, the middle of the field has been Atlanta’s weak point, and Newton completed all five short passes over the middle he attempted two weeks ago, per PFF. Assuming the Falcons don’t simply decide to leave Ginn uncovered again, like they did two weeks ago, Newton might have more success on crossing routes and routes out of the slot.

The Panthers ran for 142 yards against the Falcons last time, but Jonathan Stewart had 75 of them. He will not play this week, so it’s up to rookie Cameron Artis-Payne to carry the load. He had a solid game against New York, rushing 14 times for 59 yards, so it should be interesting to see how he does against a similarly talented Atlanta run defense.

Defensive Game Plan

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Two weeks ago, the Panthers shut down both Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman. If you can take away an opponent's quarterback and top rusher, it's not going to have a good day.

Ryan’s game against Carolina was his worst of the season. He was 22-of-32 for 224 yards with an interception, which doesn’t sound horrible, but most of those passes were short and ineffective. The Falcons only converted four of their 14 third downs.

Part of the reason Ryan had to dump the ball off so frequently was the sheer amount of pressure the Panthers put on him. They sacked him three times, and backup Sean Renfree went down a couple of more times. Even when they weren’t getting the sack, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Charles Johnson, Luke Kuechly, Jared Allen and Kony Ealy were disrupting plays; all had multiple quarterback pressures, per PFF. Ryan was under pressure on 40 to 45 percent of his dropbacks, which limited him to just 4.3 yards per attempt. That might work if the receivers were able to get massive yards after the catch, but except for one Julio Jones reception, the Panthers were fairly firm in their tackling. 

One way to alleviate that pressure is with a solid running game, but Freeman couldn’t get anything going two weeks ago, running for just 40 yards on 12 attempts. He also dropped a pass and fumbled another reception. In addition, he struggled in pass protection for what ended up being a long day for him.

Again, give praise to the defense—PFF credited the Panthers with 26 defensive stops, which is an astronomical number. That means Carolina stuffed Atlanta at or just past the line of scrimmage on nearly 40 percent of its offensive plays.

Of course, the defense didn’t look nearly as good last week against the Giants—or, at least, it stopped looking good somewhere in the late third quarter, as the Giants roared back. This is not the first time this has happened this season, as the Colts and Packers also had late-game comebacks in what ended up being close games. The Panthers will want to redouble their efforts and make sure they play the full 60 minutes in this one.

Key Players

Panthers QB Cam Newton

If Newton’s recent hot streak is the product of his actually making improvements on the field—as opposed to being on a run of good games due to luck or poor opposition—then it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping the Panthers this season. Neil Paine over at FiveThirtyEight broke down how Newton is the most improved quarterback from the first half the season to the second:

Against Atlanta, Newton was almost perfect through the air. He’s now had a quarterback rating of over 100 in six of his past seven games, while he only topped that mark once in the first seven games. Is this a product of his becoming more comfortable with his receivers or a weird statistical quirk? The longer Newton keeps putting up great performances, the harder it comes to dismiss his excellence.

Falcons Interior Line

Chris Chester had a solid game against the Panthers two weeks ago, but Mike Person and Andy Levitre had a harder time keeping the pocket clean for Ryan and providing any rushing room for Freeman.

Levitre, at least, has been better than he appeared two weeks ago, but Person has been a liability all season long. If the interior line can’t control the point of attack, it could be another long day for Atlanta’s running day.

Falcons DE Tyson Jackson

Tyson Jackson might have been the only person who slowed down Carolina’s running game two weeks ago. He made tackles after rushes of two, one, four and zero yards. All other Carolina carries combined averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and no other defender regularly made stops that early.

He gets the relatively easier job of stopping Artis-Payne this week. He may be able to increase his workload against the rookie compared to the veteran Stewart from two weeks ago.

Panthers DT Kawann Short

Kawann Short started off the season phenomenally and has continued a solid level of play. Sometimes, teams with superior regular-season records can get over-represented in the Pro Bowl, but Short’s first Pro Bowl trip would have been earned even if the Panthers hadn’t won a single game this season.

Two weeks ago, he sacked Ryan twice, forcing a pair of fumbles. He had an additional four quarterback hurries and three defensive stops, per PFF—he was a monster all day long. If he has another day like that, the Falcons have no chance.

Panthers LB Thomas Davis

Short made his first Pro Bowl after just three seasons. Davis had to wait until his 10th NFL season. As a 4-3 outside linebacker, he has been at a disadvantage compared to some of his contemporaries because it’s the 3-4 outside linebackers who rack up the gaudy coverage totals and highlight-reel plays. Davis is more of an excellent cover linebacker, though he flashed all aspects of his game against Atlanta two weeks ago.

Davis had a sack and two additional hurries, as well as four defensive stops, per PFF. He also did well in pass coverage, limiting Jacob Tamme and Freeman to minimal receptions and tackling well when they did make the catch. Davis may not be the best player on the roster at the moment, but he’s been a solid player for a decade for Carolina. No one on the team deserves the experience of this 14-0 season more than he does.

Prediction

Carolina isn't going to keep Atlanta out of the end zone for the third consecutive game—Freeman and Jones are both deserving Pro Bowlers, and chances are at least one of them will break a big play at some point. In addition, the 38-0 victory from two weeks represents an outlier; it would be difficult for the game to be more one-sided and quite plausible for the Panthers to play worse and the Falcons to play better, if only because there really isn’t any other direction for them to go.

This game is also on the road, which does matter—yes, the Panthers beat the Falcons badly the last time they were in the Georgia Dome with the NFC South championship on the line, but the Panthers have been a little less dominant on the road, despite winning all their games. The Falcons also technically have something to play for—a chance at a wild-card berth, even if it would require an unlikely sequence of events.

So, this game should be closer. Unfortunately for Atlanta, there’s a broad range between “closer” and “actually competitive” when you’re starting with a five-score blowout. This game probably won’t stop being interesting in the first quarter, but the Panthers should be able to clinch home-field advantage without too many issues.

Prediction: Carolina 30, Atlanta 16

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.