Indianapolis Colts: 5 Keys to the Future to Watch Down the Stretch
The Indianapolis Colts are technically still in the playoff hunt, although their chances to actually complete that feat are rather slim.
The team has a slight chance of winning the division, but it is out of their control, needing at least one loss by the Houston Texans in order to win their third consecutive division title. That’s why, when asked about the team’s plan in the final weeks, head coach Chuck Pagano reiterated the team’s need to win, per Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star, rather than confirming a desire to develop young players for the future.
But that’s to be understood when it comes to Pagano.
The Colts head coach knows that his job is likely gone at the end of this season, and his only hope of saving it is to make the playoffs and somehow make a deep postseason run.
Inside the Colts facilities, the mentality has to be to keep winning, to keep fighting. But this isn’t inside the Colts facilities, and we can afford to look at things realistically.
The Colts likely aren’t making the playoffs. And even if they do get into the playoffs, the Colts likely aren’t beating anybody. In fact, it’s probably more beneficial long term if the Colts don’t make the playoffs, affording them the best draft position they’ve had in years.
It’s time for the Colts to look toward the future. This isn’t the team that’s going to bring Indianapolis a second Lombardi Trophy. It has pieces to contribute to such a team, however, and that’s who our focus is on now.
Keeping Andrew Luck Healthy
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The Colts have officially announced that Andrew Luck will be out for Week 16’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins, and Chuck Pagano told the media that Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start, per Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star.
Pagano’s quotes regarding Luck have been rather telling, particularly when compared to the quarterback's words. Luck has told the media that as soon as he’s cleared, he’ll be on the field, repeatedly stating his desire to play this season. Pagano, however, has routinely announced Luck’s status for the upcoming matchup early in the week, up to six days before the game.
If Luck was really close to returning, it seems unlikely that he’d be ruled out a full week before a game. The disconnect is so stark that Will Carroll, managing editor of FanDuel and longtime Indianapolis resident, has posited that Pagano has purposefully avoided asking the Colts medical staff for Luck’s clearance.
The point in all of this, of course, is that Luck should be sat down for the season. Luck is the franchise’s future, its best chance at getting back to contender status. As much as he may want to play, the Colts’ top priority for the next few weeks has to be getting—and keeping—him healthy.
If the team really is going to look to the future, the first step is to avoid needlessly endangering Luck.
Phillip Dorsett
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During the 2015 NFL draft, the Colts reinforced the idea that they were committed to a high-flying downfield passing attack by drafting Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Adding to an already stocked receiver corps including T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Andre Johnson, Dorsett figured to slide in as the fourth receiver and make his mark as a downfield threat when the Colts really wanted to open things up.
Unfortunately, that never panned out.
While Dorsett did start to play over Johnson in critical situations before an ankle injury knocked him out for five games, the Colts’ downfield passing game never figured things out, and Dorsett has been invisible since returning from injury in Week 14.
The team’s long-term future doesn’t depend on Dorsett like it does Luck. However, it does depend on an explosive passing offense, and Dorsett is a part of that. The team has not been able to get him involved effectively since Luck has been out, and they should make it one of their primary goals to give him opportunities to show his skills in the last few weeks.
Even if Luck isn’t playing, the team can give him chances on short, yards-after-the-catch plays over the middle. Do we really need to keep seeing the certain-to-be-cut Andre Johnson out there?
Committing to Either Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen
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One of the Colts’ most critical mistakes this season has been the lack of production from the tight end spot.
The team’s underutilization and inefficient usage of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen has been one of the biggest contributing factors to the team’s offensive struggles. Last season, the duo combined for 80 catches, over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdown receptions. This season, the two have combined for 61 catches, but less than 500 yards and just three touchdowns.
Both players have had significantly fewer downfield targets, relegated to blocking and short dump-offs. Part of it is the team’s offensive line struggles, but the Colts had relatively the same offensive line last season and didn’t see the same thing occur.
The biggest head-scratcher has been Dwayne Allen, who has run just 184 routes in the passing game, compared to 382 last season, per Pro Football Focus. Allen, who lost 13 pounds this offseason in order to be a bigger threat in the passing game, has barely registered on the Colts’ passing radar at all.
Going forward, the Colts have to figure out if they are going to commit to one of these tight ends going forward. Odds are that it will be Fleener, given the team’s bizarre use of Allen, but there has been little indication that they can groom Fleener into a consistently significant role either.
Fortunately, the price tag on both will likely be low, considering the two players’ down year. But the Colts need to show some commitment to using one of these tight ends if they want to ensure they stick around going forward.
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Getting Rookie Defensive Backs on the Field
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Like with Dorsett, the Colts need to see what they have in another early-round draft pick. And also like Dorsett, D'joun Smith suffered an injury that has hampered him from developing on the field this year, and he needs to get some real snaps in before the Colts head into an offseason of turmoil.
The Colts drafted Smith with an early third-round pick last offseason, the first and only cornerback the team has drafted in general manager Ryan Grigson's tenure. With Greg Toler’s contract ending after this year, the Colts desperately need to find other starting options.
Smith probably isn’t a starter, not yet, but getting him experience on the field will at least give the Colts a better idea of what they have, and give the rookie a foundation to work from going into the offseason.
Meanwhile, Clayton Geathers is getting occasional snaps at safety, as he has all year. Though he filled in as a starter in Weeks 11 and 12, he’s been back to a rotational role over the last three weeks, and results have been inconsistent.
With Dwight Lowery’s contract expiring this offseason, the Colts will have to choose whether to retain the veteran or to trust Geathers with a starting spot going forward. The former University of Central Florida safety has flashed positive things this year, but has also had some rough instances in coverage.
The Colts secondary has been the only thing keeping the team afloat defensively, considering its lack of pass-rushing ability, and they need some way to build for the future beyond Vontae Davis.
Defensive Depth for 2016 and Beyond
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The Colts have had improved depth this season on defense, although injuries and a collapsing season have caught up with them in recent weeks. The depth situation has been rather fluid, however, especially in recent weeks, with numerous defensive players getting cut and/or re-signed over short periods of time.
No matter who takes over the team next season, the Colts need to figure out which of the depth players on defense are worth keeping around for significant roles for next season, and which guys can be replaced or upgraded upon.
Bjoern Werner is a bust, but can he be a productive depth player, or is it time to cut him loose? Has Zach Kerr done enough to warrant a spot as a long-term asset? Is Sio Moore ever going to make an impact, or has that trade gone down the drain? Is Billy Winn a legitimate candidate for a spot in the Colts defensive line rotation, or is he just a flash in the pan, fringe player?
Those are just a few examples, as the Colts will have plenty of questions to answer in the upcoming months.
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