College Football Playoff 2015-16: Odds, Schedule and Projections for Semifinals

The betting lines have barely budged on the pair of College Football Playoff semifinals, and it sure seems Vegas knows something the rest doesn’t. 

Alabama’s spread over Michigan State has moved to a whopping 10 points in the Cotton Bowl, while top-ranked Clemson remains an underdog, now up to 3.5 points, against surging Oklahoma for their meeting in the Orange Bowl.

Both margins seem odd given the way the season has shaped.

Michigan State won a competitive Big Ten over in convincing fashion with most of its toughest games away from East Lansing, while Clemson remains the nation’s last unbeaten and has been arguably the most complete team all year. 

Here is a look at the latest odds and a glance at each semifinal game. 

Bowl	Matchup	Date/Time (ET)	Location	Odds
Orange Bowl	No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma	Dec. 31, 4 p.m.	Miami, Fla.	Oklahoma (-4)
Cotton Bowl	No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State	Dec. 31, 8 p.m.	Arlington, Texas	Alabama (-10

Michigan State (+10) will Keep Game Close vs. Alabama

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

That Michigan State is such a considerable underdog in another monumental matchup is a head-scratcher. 

The Spartans have won seven of their last eight in Top-10 matchups under head coach Mark Dantonio, but intangibles aside, they also match up quite well with Alabama.

With the nation’s sevens-ranked run defense (113.1 yards per game), they should create blockades against Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry from reaching his 152.7 yards-per-game mark. And on offense, MSU employs a balanced attack that has been an archetype Achilles heel for the Tide with their modern class. 

Alabama head coach Nick Saban admitted MSU quarterback Connor Cook is as good as any the Tide will see all season, per John Talty of AL.com, and he’ll be aided by a run game that isn’t remarkable—160.7 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry—but nonetheless effective.

The Spartans were hefty underdogs in two of their three biggest games earlier this season vs. Michigan (+7) and Ohio State (+13), but they won both on the road in the final seconds. 

They’re not shy of the big stage, and while Alabama is the favorite for a reason and should win, it won’t do so by double digits. 

Clemson (+4) Deserves More Love

Alex Menendez/Getty Images

While most relish the role of underdog, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney rejects it. And perhaps that’s for the unfair (and untrue) stigma affixed to his program for seeming to lose late in games they shouldn’t. 

For the second straight year, the Tigers meet Oklahoma in the postseason, and for the second straight year, they enter as questionable underdogs. 

In last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl, the Tigers spanked the Sooners 40-6 as six-point underdogs, and Clemson has since gone on to win another 13 straight. 

The Sooners, however, are the nation’s hottest team this time around, and one with a completely different aura to the squad that lost inexplicably to Texas earlier this season.

Since then, quarterback Baker Mayfield marched Oklahoma to the Big 12 title with a convincing trifecta of wins over Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State to finish the season. 

But the knock on the Big 12 for its lack of out-of-conference play—which is why it was snubbed from the playoff last year—may catch up to Oklahoma in its New Years Eve date. 

Clemson is by far the best team the Sooners have seen all season—and it’s not even close.

Behind Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson under center, the Tigers scored 38.5 points per game (15th in FBS) and racked up 510.6 yards per contest (12th). 

The offense has been complemented by a rugged defense that has arguably been the best in the Swinney era and should present plenty of problems for Mayfield and company. 

Not only will the Tigers cover, they’ll win and go on to play for their first national title since 1981. 

All odds courtesy OddsShark.com unless otherwise noted.