Biggest Takeaways from Indianapolis Colts' Week 15 Loss

The Indianapolis Colts' ugly, embarrassing season continued Sunday as the team suffered its first home loss to the Houston Texans in a 16-10 disaster. 

Having won 13 consecutive home games against the Texans prior to Sunday's result, the loss added insult to injury. The loss gave control of the AFC South the Texans, who now have a one-game lead over the Colts in the division. Owning control of their own destiny, the Texans now have an 86 percent chance of winning the division, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, per Sharon Katz of ESPN Stats & Info. 

While it's still possible for the Colts to win the division, their fate is out of their hands, and the season is realistically over. The Colts now must look toward the future. 

That will be the focus of this week's takeaways. What did we learn about the Colts' long-term plans and options during this loss? 

With Matt Hasselbeck at the Helm, the Colts Are Terrible

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Prior to this season, there was a sense that the Colts were still reliant on Andrew Luck, that they'd be one of the league's worst teams without him. But after the Colts went 4-0 in Matt Hasselbeck's first four starts, there was a sense that the Colts could actually pull this off. 

But the last three weeks have proved that those games were more of an aberration than anything else. After all, they needed two missed game-winning field-goal attempts against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their first meeting, caught Houston at the point where they might have been the worst team in the league and needed a late pick-six from Matt Ryan to win in Atlanta. 

The Colts got extremely lucky in those first four games, which is part of football, but it's something to be considered nonetheless. The team's back-to-back blowout losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jaguars (ugh), plus losing to the unholy pairing of T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden at home, tell us more about this team's mettle than anything else. 

The Colts had a negative-50 point differential over those seven games, which is on pace to be the third-worst at this point in the year. 

Although the team has gone to great lengths to provide Luck with more support, the reality is that this is a bad team without him. 

Colts' Future Depends on Hilton, Moncrief

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One of the things that was clear from the Colts' offseason actions this year was how much value the team placed on the passing offense. 

The Colts signed T.Y. Hilton to a long-term deal, signed Andre Johnson in free agency and drafted their second high-round wide receiver in two years. Andrew Luck was the basket in which the team had placed its eggs, and that's a good strategy. The organizations that are consistently good build around their franchise quarterbacks. 

But the Colts' eggs have to hatch in order for this to work. 

That means Hilton has to produce like a No. 1 receiver, and it means that Donte Moncrief, or Phillip Dorsett, has to develop into a consistent threat across from him. 

Hilton has largely kept up his side of the bargain, currently ranking 12th among all receivers in receiving yards, although his three-catch, 29-yard performance against the Texans was rather uninspiring. Still, considering the quarterback situation Hilton has dealt with this year, a third consecutive 1,000-yard season is more than acceptable. 

The second part of that premise has been sketchy. Moncrief has had his moments, but has also had long stretches of inactivity. Dorsett has been largely invisible this season, although he did seem to be carving out a role before Luck got hurt. 

On Sunday, we saw both sides of that coin. Moncrief had a relatively good day with five catches for 51 yards and a touchdown in a brain-dead offense. Dorsett, however, played just 10 snaps and caught his lone target for one yard...a yard short of the first down. 

Going forward, the Colts need these receivers to be the threats they'd hoped, otherwise Luck's promising future may fade all too quickly. 

War of Attrition Catches Up with Run Defense

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For the first half of the season, the Colts run defense was surprisingly solid. Even with Arthur Jones missing the season with an ankle injury, the Colts defensive line looked deeper and more capable of big plays than it had in years. 

This was in large part due to talented rookie lineman Henry Anderson, who filled Jones' spot in the starting lineup. With the defensive line playing better, the Colts inside linebackers could play aggressively and not get punished too often. It worked, too, as the Colts had a negative defensive DVOA against the run in seven of their first 10 games, according to Football Outsiders (negative is better for defense).

But as the team has gotten more and more banged up in the front seven over the last few weeks, the cracks in the armor have shown, and it's been a big issue yet again. 

In Week 13, DeAngelo Williams ran for 134 yards on 5.2 yards per carry as the Steelers closed out the Colts easily. In Week 14, the Jaguars ran for 154 yards on 5.3 yards per carry and closed the Colts out easily. In Week 15, Texans running backs Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt ran for 133 yards on 5.3 yards per carry, turning the tide for Houston in the second half. 

Injuries are a part of every team's season, so it's difficult to blame them for this issue. But the Colts have suffered season-ending injuries to two different starters on the defensive line this year, including both of their primary playmakers. Lingering injury issues have plagued their linebackers as well, a unit that was already questionable. 

There's nothing the team can do about it now, but it's worth noting as this season has unraveled. 

The Colts' Run-First Attitude Has Backfired

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When the Colts hired head coach Chuck Pagano, and to some extent general manager Ryan Grigson, the emphasis was on running the ball and stopping the run. 

Both Pagano and Grigson were old-school, hand-in-the-ground types. It's the kind of philosophy that traditional media and casual fans eat up, but doesn't really work in today's NFL. The best teams in the league are the ones that can punish teams through the air and harass passers in the pocket. 

Unfortunately, this wasn't the Colts' strategy for too long into the new regime's tenure, and it's backfired horribly. 

For one, the team focused on the wrong players in free agency and the draft. The team went after run-stoppers like Erik Walden and Bjoern Werner on the edge and D'Qwell Jackson in the middle. They went after run-blockers like Todd Herremans and Samson Satele instead of pass-protecting specialists. 

To add insult to injury, those players didn't turn out to be very good at the "stopping the run" and "running the ball" thing. The Colts are 31st in run DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and have gotten roasted defensively in the run game in three consecutive games.

Chuck Pagano Is Gone, Will Ryan Grigson Follow?

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If Chuck Pagano's coffin wasn't already complete, dropping the franchise's first home loss to the Texans with a combination of T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden at quarterback is plenty to drive in the final nail. 

The Colts have been poorly coached all season, and the loss to the Texans was another example of that. The Colts were dominated in the second half for the third consecutive game, not a surprise for a team that has regularly struggled with second-half adjustments. 

The team was undisciplined, racking up eight penalties for 94 yards—another common occurrence for the 2015 Colts. Ultimately, the team didn't come through when it absolutely needed to and underperformed, like it has all season. 

Pagano is the next head to get cut off in Indianapolis. 

But what is next? 

Does general manager Ryan Grigson follow him? There is evidence on both sides for Grigson. His free-agency spending sprees have all fallen flat, and he's wasted numerous high draft picks on the likes of Trent Richardson and Bjoern Werner. He's also had some fantastic deals, like getting Vontae Davis for a second-round pick and drafting T.Y. Hilton in the third round. 

Grigson has also managed the cap well, signing plenty of free agents but always structuring deals with an out for the future. He's also learned from his mistakes, slowly changing his style and team-building attitude toward a more modern, pass-heavy philosophy. 

Firing a general manager and cleaning house in the front office also is a risky move. It requires a huge transition, one even bigger than simply changing coaching staffs. 

The Colts are heading toward a big shake-up this offseason. The question is how much stability are they willing to give up for the possibility of a brighter future?