Indianapolis Colts Week 15 Stock Report
When the Indianapolis Colts lose, the stock drops.
When the Colts lose by 35 to the Jacksonville Jaguars while in the midst of a tight division race, the stock plummets.
The season may not be over, but it sure felt that way to Colts fans Sunday. The Colts had never lost to an AFC South opponent by 30 points before, and the last time they lost to a division rival by that many was in 2001, when the team resided in the AFC East.
This is the low point for Indianapolis this season, and there's no way to sugarcoat it.
Still, the season isn't over. With the Houston Texans' loss to the New England Patriots Sunday night, the Colts remained in first place in the AFC South. Sunday's game against the Texans will all but decide the division, and if Andrew Luck returns before the end of the season, the Colts actually have a legitimate chance, albeit a small one, to salvage a playoff win or two out of this season.
So what is the state of the team heading into this crucial division battle? That's the subject of this week's stock watch.
Stock Down: Chuck Pagano
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If anything was going to be the deciding factor in owner Jim Irsay's decision on whether or not to re-sign head coach Chuck Pagano next year, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to score 51 points would be it.
Not only was it a huge loss to a division rival in the midst of a close divisional race, but it was a horrible blowout to a team the Colts have owned in recent years. Irsay is a proud man, and has not been happy with recent blowout losses, per Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star.
A blowout loss to the 4-8 Jaguars at a critical point in the season? No amount of injury excuses can make up for that.
It's been an odd season for Pagano. On one hand, the Colts have massively underachieved compared to their preseason expectations, and many of the issues have been coaching-related problems that have existed for the last four years. On the other hand, the Colts have gone 4-2 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback this season, a minor miracle for which Pagano deserves some credit for.
But in the end, a losing record won't cut it. Not in Indianapolis.
While general manager Ryan Grigson may still have a chance at life beyond 2015 (something that's quickly looking less and less likely), Pagano's fate may have been sealed after Sunday's loss.
Stock Up: T.Y. Hilton
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Seemingly the only player who can make big plays on the Colts offense, T.Y. Hilton delivered yet again against the Jaguars, totaling 132 yards on just four catches.
Even with Matt Hasselbeck playing poorly, Hilton made plays, as has been the case for this entire season. Whether it's been Hasselbeck or Andrew Luck, the Colts quarterbacks have not played well. Yet, Hilton ranks 10th among all receivers in yards, remarkable considering the context.
Hilton is on pace for the fewest total receptions since his rookie year, his worst-ever catch rate and his fewest amount of 100-yard games ever (just two this season; he's had at least five in each of his last three years). Yet, he still ranks 10th in receiving yards, thanks to his consistency and ever-present big-play ability.
Now, as the season comes to a close, Hilton is still licking his chops, no matter who is his quarterback.
The Colts' next two opponents, the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins, both know Hilton quite well. In nine games against the two teams over the last four years, Hilton has averaged 9.4 targets, 5.8 receptions, 108.3 yards and 0.78 touchdowns per game. Five of those games included 100-yard performances, including both Dolphins games.
While Hilton's dominance against the Texans is well-known, he's been able to beat Brent Grimes and the Miami secondary as well. Considering the Dolphins' current pass-defense issues, Hilton could be a force, even if Luck can't go at all in the next two weeks.
Stock Down: Special Teams
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Two consecutive blowout losses, two consecutive weeks allowing a punt return touchdown.
That's not good.
The Colts special teams has been an asset for Indianapolis over the last few years. Sure, the return teams have never been dangerous, but the combination of Pat McAfee and Adam Vinatieri kicking the ball has been a huge advantage for Indianapolis.
But allowing return touchdowns is a no-no, and the Colts coverage units have to rebound if they want to have a chance to win games down the stretch. The Colts offense simply isn't good enough right now to give away touchdowns, and the defense isn't good enough to stop other teams with consistently good field position.
Sunday's punt return touchdown was especially egregious, helping the Jaguars turn a deficit into a double-digit lead in less than two minutes. That play, and a fluky 80-yard touchdown pass on the drive prior for Jacksonville, changed the entire makeup of the game, and the Colts never recovered.
Without Andrew Luck, the Colts need every phase playing at optimal levels to have a chance to win.
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Stock Up: Vontae Davis
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Vontae Davis deserved his spot on this list last week, but in a negative manner after getting roasted by Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Antonio Brown. He also deserves it this week, however, after holding up-and-coming Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson without a catch Sunday.
Overall, Davis was targeted twice, according to Pro Football Focus, and didn't allow a single catch, earning a pass defense on one of those targets.
With Greg Toler out, the Colts had Davis shadow Robinson for much of the game, and Robinson had just one catch as a result, a four-yard touchdown when matched up with Darius Butler and Mike Adams in zone coverage. Robinson is one of the league's best young receivers, currently leading the league in touchdown receptions and ranking eighth in total receiving yards.
The Colts desperately need Davis to play at this level as they attempt to bounce back in the next few weeks. The Colts have fallen apart defensively as the injuries have mounted, and they need their studs to play like studs if they want to have a chance.
Stock Down: Division Title Chances
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Blowout losses don't win the division, unfortunately.
On the positive side, the Houston Texans also took a blowout loss Sunday, losing 27-6 against the New England Patriots. A huge part in the Colts' chances to win the division had to do with Houston's schedule down the stretch, and that showed Sunday.
But that optimism for the Colts' division title chances didn't take into account a 51-16 embarrassment.
Even if the Colts did remain atop the division after Sunday's loss, thanks to the tiebreaker against Houston, their chances to make the playoffs look worse than ever. This is not a team that's playing well, in any sense of the word, and this is exactly the time they need to be playing well.
They also allowed the Jaguars back in the mix, and are just one game ahead of the team that just blew them out by 35 points.
Fortunately for Indianapolis, they could get some help from Houston this week, as starting quarterback Brian Hoyer has been declared out, with T.J. Yates slated to start Sunday, per Drew Dougherty of HoustonTexans.com. But, Andrew Luck has also been declared out, and it's hard to be optimistic about when he will come back.
Regardless, the Colts have to win Sunday for it to matter at all. Do that, and they're all but guaranteed to make a trip to the playoffs.
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