Russell Wilson Could Steal the MVP
The NFL's highest-rated passer this season? Not Tom Brady, Carson Palmer or Cam Newton. No, rather quietly, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks has emerged on paper as the league's best pivot entering Week 15.
This is despite the fact that only a month ago, Wilson's numbers were inferior to those belonging to scrubs like Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer, and inconsistent messes like Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan.
Wilson also doesn't have Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, or of course the top-notch center the Seahawks traded for Graham.
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This is despite the fact Pro Football Focus rates the Seattle offensive line 29th in terms of pass-blocking efficiency, and the fact Wilson's been under pressure more frequently than all but two NFL quarterbacks.
It's also despite the fact Pro Bowl running back Marshawn Lynch has hardly been a factor. Lynch was the straw that stirred the Seattle offense in 2013 and 2014, but he's averaged 3.8 yards per carry in seven games this year and hasn't played since Week 10.
Point being, the Seahawks aren't the team they were in 2013 or 2014. The o-line is a liability, and they can't rely on Graham, Lynch or Russell Okung. A defense that often carried them during those two Super Bowl seasons has lost quite a lot of depth and as a result they're giving up more points, yards and big plays than in the recent past.
In fact, they've surrendered 27 or more points on six occasions this year—something that happened only four times combined in the previous two seasons.
| Points against/game | 15.2 | 18.1 |
| Yards allowed/game | 270.4 | 307.8 |
| Games with 27+ points allowed | 4 | 6 |
| Takeaways/game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 20-yard plays allowed/game | 2.3 | 3.7 |
Yet none of it matters because the Seahawks suddenly and inexplicably have the league's most dangerous offense. They're averaging a ridiculous 34.6 points per game dating back to their Week 9 bye, and Wilson has practically been perfect during their current four-game winning streak.
| 1. Russell Wilson | 75.4 | 16-0 | 9.9 | 145.9 |
| 2. Cam Newton | 65.0 | 13-1 | 8.3 | 122.8 |
| 3. Andy Dalton | 65.6 | 7-2 | 9.2 | 111.7 |
| 4. Alex Smith | 70.0 | 5-1 | 8.6 | 108.8 |
| 5. Blake Bortles | 62.8 | 11-2 | 7.9 | 106.8 |
During this time Wilson's been handing off to an undrafted rookie (Thomas Rawls), an undrafted journeyman (DuJuan Harris) and a 34-year-old who is averaging just 3.7 yards a pop (Fred Jackson), while throwing to three receivers (Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett) and a tight end (Luke Willson) who have been to a combined zero Pro Bowls.
| Comp.% | 68.8 | 2nd |
| TD-INT | 26-7 | 4th |
| YPA | 8.6 | 3rd |
| Rating | 110.0 | 1st |
Yes, Newton is so good he's turned Ted Ginn into a potential Pro Bowler, but Wilson is making Baldwin (10 touchdowns in his last five games) look like a Hall of freakin' Famer.
Newton does lead all NFL quarterbacks with 480 rushing yards, but Wilson is a close second with 456.
According to Pro Football Focus, the 27-year-old has a league-high 11 touchdown passes this season on throws beyond 20 yards. Palmer has 10, Newton nine and Brady just three. PFF also rates him as the league's most accurate passer under pressure, and overall.
This is a "What have you done for me lately?" league, and Wilson has done more lately than anyone else, despite having less support than most of his counterparts. He's been particularly good when it has mattered most, on both a macro and micro scale.
| 1. Russell Wilson | 73.5 | 3-1 | 11.1 | 121.6 |
| 2. Teddy Bridgewater | 71.7 | 2-0 | 9.4 | 115.6 |
| 3. Tom Brady | 61.4 | 6-1 | 9.0 | 113.4 |
| 4. Brock Osweiler | 64.7 | 2-0 | 8.0 | 108.9 |
| 5. Cam Newton | 63.2 | 4-1 | 8.7 | 106.9 |
It'll still be hard for Wilson to earn more MVP votes than Newton, who has been a fan and media favorite all season and has his team rolling at 13-0. If the Panthers finish 16-0, Newton is probably an MVP lock. But that's no guarantee.
If Carolina drops a game and the Seahawks keep surging with Wilson putting up unearthly numbers, he might in fact be the NFL's most valuable player.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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