3 Hidden Bright Spots for the Boston Celtics So Far
The Boston Celtics are surpassing expectations with conviction at the first-quarter mark of the NBA season. Instead of hovering in expected mediocrity, Boston has risen to a higher level, putting any lingering doubt of its playoff contention to rest.
Despite some inconsistency, the Celtics are 14-10, two games short of the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The lack of a true superstar to carry the offense is at the core of the occasionally erratic play, but the Celtics are quickly emerging as a top contender for home-court advantage in the improved East.
The recently published ESPN NBA Basketball Power Index playoff odds estimate a bright future for the feisty Celtics. According to early predictions, Boston has a 98.9 percent chance to make it to postseason, with a projected record of 51-31.
Those figures may be slightly optimistic, but the Celtics' impressive showing in the statistical department isn't a fluke. Boston is outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per 100 possessions this season, the eighth-best number in the league, per NBA.com. That is a massive bump in the right direction, as the Celtics ranked just 18th with a net rating of minus-0.4 last year.
The Celtics' numbers haven't been inflated by bad competition, either, as they are 11th on ESPN's strength of schedule list. There is a long road ahead, but Boston's early-season success is encouraging and contains many bright spots.
Brad Stevens' Coaching
When a roster lacking star-quality players exceeds expectations, the head coach is generally the designated beneficiary of the praise. The credit has to be shared around the organization, but Stevens is really doing wonders with his versatile group.
Stevens, 39, is already among the elite coaches in the league, rightfully garnering respect among his peers. Celtics general manager Danny Ainge had some predictions about Stevens' career, which, while bold, aren't far-fetched, per CSNNE.com (transcription via Tom Westerholm of MassLive.com):
"Brad is one of the smartest coaches in the NBA. He's learning the game still. But he's a tireless worker, he's a great communicator. It's exciting for me that Brad is getting the accolades that he's getting. We've always known that about Brad. He's going to have some ups and downs through his coaching career, but it's my opinion that — in 10 or 20 years from now — we'll be talking about Brad as one of the great coaches to ever coach in the NBA.
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He has the Celtics playing in a modern up-and-down system, preaching flow, motion and ball movement. Everyone has bought into the methods, as Boston is one of the most pass-friendly teams in the league, ranking fourth in assists.
Even though the team has a long way to go offensively, it's doing the best with what it has. The Celtics are first in the league in steals, a big jump from last season's eighth spot. It has led to some much-needed transition offense, as no team scores more points off turnovers this year, according to NBA.com/Stats.
Only the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets put up more threes than Boston, although 33.2 percent accuracy from long range leaves much to be desired. Stevens' system generates all the right looks, but it lacks the shooting prowess to fully capitalize on them.
Stevens has also gained league-wide acclaim for his ability to draw up plays. Take a look at this out-of-bounds set against the Charlotte Hornets:
The play starts off with Avery Bradley screening for Jared Sullinger, who receives the inbound. He then runs a handoff with Isaiah Thomas while Bradley simultaneously pops out behind an Amir Johnson pin-down for an open shot.
The execution is spot-on, and Stevens is excellent at drawing up plays that utilize misdirection, small-to-big screening action and timely cuts. Ben Dowsett of Basketball Insiders summed up Stevens' skills well: "Stevens is the league’s foremost master at playing on what an opponent thinks is coming before pulling the wool over their eyes in an instant."
Championship-Level Defense
Boston's offense, while exciting, still has a tendency to stagnate. What truly fuels the Celtics' success is their suffocating and surprisingly mature defense.
Sometimes it's easy to forget the Celtics have the fifth-youngest roster in the NBA, with an average age of 24.5. Having young players logging big minutes generally hurts a team on the defensive end. It took several years and an infusion of veteran leadership for the Warriors to become elite there, but Boston is ahead in the process.
The Celtics are allowing 97 points per 100 possessions this year, per ESPN's Hollinger stats. That number would've ranked first in the league last season, but it is still good enough for the fourth-best defense this year. Only the San Antonio Spurs (who are at a historic pace) and the sluggish, slow-it-down Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls have been stingier in surrendering points.
An elite defense is essential for championship contention, and it's admirable for the Celtics to be this good so early in the process. Good coaching and a solid scheme are crucial elements when establishing a disciplined culture, but talent never hurts.
Boston has some great individual defenders: Marcus Smart and Bradley are bloodhounds on the perimeter, while a focused Jae Crowder can competently guard three positions. Johnson provides a dose of rim protection the Celtics lacked last year, and Sullinger transforms into an immovable object in the low post.
That said, it's Boston's ability to communicate, switch across positions and eliminate the most imminent threat that has been most fun to watch. Take a look at this excellent defensive possession against the Warriors:
Boston snuffs the initial Curry back-screen, and Bradley stays with the Warriors superstar every step of the way, navigating around the dreaded Draymond Green handoff. Crowder provides extra help without abandoning his matchup, which eventually forces the ball into the low post to Festus Ezeli—already a win for any defense trying to stop Golden State.
The Celtics strangle the rest of the possession by cutting off passing lanes and switching on the fly.
There is concern when it comes to the Celtics' rebounding, although some of it also comes down to scheme. Aside from Sullinger, who hunts for every available loose ball, Boston puts emphasis on bringing its players back to limit transition opportunities, allowing the least fast-break points in the league as a result, per NBA.com/Stats.
Kelly Olynyk's Stellar Play
Boston's frontcourt rotation remains erratic, as Stevens has tried to delegate minutes while searching for the right combinations. The beneficiary of those experiments has been Olynyk.
Olynyk already has three 20-plus scoring performances in December, and his versatile arsenal adds more flow to Boston's offense. He is hitting threes at a career-high 37 percent clip and is seeing consistent minutes lately, even in crunch time.
He is a terrific floor-spacer who forces opposing rim protectors to abandon their holy ground in the paint or give up an open three. Olynyk is also a smart cutter with his reads while playing away from the ball.
Olynyk isn't a flashy passer, but he is a quick thinker. He often explores assist opportunities, and he is more than capable of finding cutting teammates on the move. When there is no clear opening, he makes sure to get rid of the ball without stagnating the offense.
He is still a tad inconsistent, and his post game needs some work. Olynyk has tried to replicate Dirk Nowitzki's patented turnaround jumper with little success, and he has a tendency to shuffle his feet when working one-on-one. Even so, he is mobile and versatile, which is a rare commodity among 7-footers who also hold their own defensively.
Olynyk received praise from his teammates following a 28-point outburst in the 124-119 loss to the Warriors on Dec. 11.
"Kelly’s really talented and skilled, and once he gets going he’s hard to stop," Evan Turner said, according to Tim Bresnahan of the Boston Herald. "He’s been playing great the past month and it’s great for him. It’s even better for us to have a 7-footer running around doing what he can do."
All referenced statistics are accurate as of Dec. 14.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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