Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) will try to stay in playoff contention when they host the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) in a key AFC matchup on Sunday night. The Steelers saw their two-game winning streak end with a 39-30 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks as three-point underdogs, but they have won nine of the past 10 home meetings with the Colts straight up, with a 7-3 mark against the spread.

Point spread: Steelers opened as six-point favorites; the total was early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.8-17.3 Steelers

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy has thrived with veteran Matt Hasselbeck replacing the injured Andrew Luck at quarterback, going 4-0 and winning three in a row overall after a three-game losing streak. Hasselbeck has been solid filling in for Luck, who is out with a lacerated kidney and abdominal injury, throwing seven touchdown passes with just two interceptions, both of which came in a 24-21 road victory against the Atlanta Falcons.

Defensively, the Colts need to pick up where they left off in last week's 25-12 home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they are going to upset Pittsburgh on the road. The Bucs managed just two field goals and one touchdown in the first half against Indianapolis and did not score the rest of the game. The Colts held Tampa Bay rookie quarterback Jameis Winston in check and may or may not have to face Ben Roethlisberger here, depending on whether he passes his concussion protocol.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Roethlisberger’s status obviously looms large in this matchup with Indy, as he had a monster performance in last week's 39-30 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks before leaving the game. He finished with 456 yards and one touchdown and helped turn wide receiver Markus Wheaton into a rising star with nine receptions for 201 yards and a score. There is a huge drop-off to backup Landry Jones, who threw two interceptions and completed just one of his four pass attempts in relief of Roethlisberger.

However, the Steelers can still rely on their running game and defense at Heinz Field, where both have performed better this season. The Colts rank 24th in run defense, giving up 115.1 yards per game, while Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 18 points in winning three of its last four at home, which includes a 38-35 victory against the Oakland Raiders.

Smart pick

Indy got crushed a year ago at Heinz Field, 51-34, with Luck as the starter. While Hasselbeck has played just adequately against some mediocre opponents, the Steelers are the best team he will play in his five starts. Look for Pittsburgh to roll and cover the spread, no matter who plays quarterback.

Betting trends

The Colts are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against the Steelers.

The Steelers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games in December.

The Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.