Ohio State Still Has a Lifeline in Race to Repeat as CFP National Champion

Ohio State fans, welcome to #TeamChaos.

Your Buckeyes' offensive explosion against hated rival Michigan on Saturday afternoon was impressive.

And although Michigan State smacked around Penn State later in the day to clinch the Big Ten East division, the rout of the Wolverines in Jim Harbaugh's first Big Game at the Big House ensured Ohio State still has a chance to repeat as the national champion.

Ohio State entered the weekend at No. 8 in the College Football Playoff committee's rankings. The team directly ahead of it, No. 7 Baylor, lost 28-21 in overtime to TCU in a monsoon Friday night.

The No. 6 team, Notre Dame, lost 38-36 on a last-second field goal by No. 9 Stanford.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Even through some closer-than-expected calls, the rest of the committee's Top Five took care of business Saturday. Barring a surprise shakeup in the rankings, Ohio State will enter Week 14—conference championship week—as the No. 6 team in the country.

No. 3 Iowa and (presumably) No. 4 Michigan State will sort themselves out in Indianapolis next Saturday with a Big Ten Championship Game that should be a playoff play-in game.

That means Ohio State could be in the final top four from the committee with some more chaos, as Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod noted on Twitter:

No. 1 Clemson, which survived a scary road trip against three-win rival South Carolina on Saturday, faces one of the hottest teams in the country next weekend in the ACC Championship Game.

North Carolina entered the weekend No. 14 in the CFP rankings and knocked off NC State by a score of 45-34.

The Tar Heels were ranked second nationally in yards per play heading into Week 13 and have a defense that has mostly excelled throughout the season. If it weren't for a narrow, turnover-filled loss in Week 1 against that same pesky South Carolina team, UNC would be a big-time playoff contender.

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

If North Carolina defeated Clemson in Charlotte next weekend, that would swing the door open for one of the playoff spots. One-loss North Carolina could climb in there itself with the ACC title, but it would have to make up a lot of ground with the committee.

Another scenario that would free up a spot for Ohio State to slide back into the top four is an upset for Florida, which lost 20-2 on Saturday against Florida State, over No. 2 Alabama.

This chaotic chance seems less likely than a UNC victory over undefeated Clemson. Alabama is playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment, while Florida looked rough in its three previous wins before falling to Florida State.

But stranger things have happened, and a two-loss Florida team would be a tougher argument to make over Ohio State in the playoff discussion, even with the SEC Championship in its hands.

One of the teams that could join Ohio State in the playoff push with a win for UNC or Florida is none other than two-loss Stanford.

The Cardinal will face USC next weekend in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and they'll have a chance to secure one of those conference championships the committee apparently likes to see from a top-four team.

A Stanford loss, on the other hand, would clear things up for Ohio State. USC would be the Pac-12 champion in that case—with four losses.

If the comparisons came down to one-loss non-champion Ohio State, one-loss ACC champion UNC, a one-loss non-champion Clemson, two-loss SEC champion Florida and two-loss Pac-12 champion Stanford, let's just say that the committee would have a massive headache coming its way.

Team	OSU	UNC	Clemson	Stanford	Florida
Record	11-1	12-1	12-1	11-2	11-2
T25 Wins	at Michigan (42-13)	vs. Clemson*	vs. ND (24-22), vs. FSU (23-13)	vs. UCLA (56-35), vs. ND (38-36)	vs. Ole Miss (38-10), vs. Alabama*
Losses	vs. MSU (17-14)	vs. S. Carolina (17-13)	vs. UNC*	at NW (16-6), vs. Oregon (38-36)	at LSU (35-28), vs. FSU (27-2)
Avg. Point Diff.	21.0	20.5*	19.08*	14.08*	10.91*
Strength of Schedule	61	68	47	24	52
Conference Champ?	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes

Ohio State's advantages would be point differential—or average margin of victory—and a huge blowout road victory over a Top 25 team, but the Buckeyes wouldn't have a conference championship. They would need the committee to look favorably upon the close loss to Michigan State and accept a pair of Big Ten teams into the playoff.

That playoff hope might still be a long shot, but it's a lot more than what Ohio State had just one short week ago.

After all, this is the season of last-minute miracles.

Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.