Vikings vs. Falcons: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
Week 12 of the NFL season is already three games deep, and each of the three all-NFC Thanksgiving matchups could not have turned out much better for the Minnesota Vikings.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys lost to the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, respectively, pushing both teams further out of wild-card contention at the cost of wins for a pair of teams that hardly affect Minnesota.
On a more important note, the Chicago Bears—who are quietly becoming NFC contenders in their own right—knocked off the Green Bay Packers, effectively ruining Brett Favre's ceremony and giving the Vikings an opportunity to regain first place in the North outright.
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The Atlanta Flacons, however, will not simply hand the keys to the NFC North to Minnesota on Sunday, as they also benefited—to a lesser degree—from the results this weekend and are continuing to fight for a playoff spot of their own.
The Vikings' game plan, play-calling and execution will be major factors this week, as they go up against two of the brightest "young" coaching minds in the NFL in Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan. It's another tall task for Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner, but there have been few weeks in which the Vikings coaching staff didn't face a difficult test in one way or another.
Offensive Game Plan
Minnesota did face Atlanta in 2014, but it will see a completely different defense this season.
During his first season as the Falcons head coach, Dan Quinn has made significant improvements to an Atlanta defense that came in dead last at No. 32 in Football Outsiders' efficiency-measuring statistic, DVOA, last year. By comparison, this unit currently ranks at No. 17 in DVOA through 11 weeks this season.
The 15-spot jump is outstanding in itself, but the fact that Quinn has improved this unit so much over the course of one season without bringing in completely new personnel is exceptional.
While cornerstone players such as cornerback Desmond Trufant eased this transition to his Seattle Seahawks-like defense, the Falcons should continue to improve on this side of the ball as Quinn adds more talent through the draft.
Atlanta's defensive scheme utilizes a variety of personnel and potentially even more looks. While Quinn relies heavily on his top defensive backs and linebackers to play an exceedingly high number of snaps each week, he mix-and-matches his defensive linemen frequently.
| Player | Primary Position | Total Snaps |
| Vic Beasley | Defensive End | 34 |
| Jonathan Babineaux | Defensive Tackle | 34 |
| Adrian Clayborn | Defensive Tackle | 33 |
| Kroy Biermann | Defensive End | 33 |
| Paul Soliai | Defensive Tackle | 31 |
| Tyson Jackson | Defensive End | 31 |
| O'Brien Schofield | Defensive End | 26 |
| Ra'Shede Hageman | Defensive Tackle | 20 |
| Grady Jarrett | Defensive Tackle | 16 |
Nine different Falcons registered 15 snaps or more along the defensive line, with only the four participating in at least 50 percent of the total 65 defensive snaps against the Indianapolis Colts during Week 11.
Given the amount of impact this unit has on Quinn's overall scheme, it makes sense that he would place an emphasis on keeping his defensive linemen fresh by rotating in a number of different players. Inherently, this nine-man group should put plenty of pressure on the quarterback in order to make the jobs of the coverage personnel easier.
Quinn has no issue putting his cornerbacks on an island, whether that is in zone or press-man coverage, making it essential that the defensive line does not allow quarterbacks to get comfortable. At times, Atlanta is able to get away with a porous pass rush because of the presence of Trufant, who maintains the "Richard Sherman role" for the Falcons, but this is a benefit in a worst-case scenario rather than how this defense intends to operate.
This is a general look at what the Vikings offense will be up against on Sunday. Quinn utilizes a single-high safety while placing man-coverage responsibilities on three cornerbacks. Two linebackers drop into zone coverage over the middle to guard against underneath routes while one (typically Brooks Reed) rushes from the strong side of the formation next to four defensive linemen.
The Falcons are able to make this work because of personnel that includes an elite shutdown cornerback and multiple excellent tacklers at the linebacker position. Trufant has done an outstanding job eliminating an entire side of the field or often the opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver—similar to Sherman in Seattle—while rookie Jalen Collins and Robert Alford have played well enough to maintain the identity of this scheme.
Naturally, everyone's job looks easier with Trufant making plays like the one shown directly above.
With Minnesota receivers expected to run their routes through plenty of zone coverages, Teddy Bridgewater will have to be sharp, accurate and decisive on Sunday. This means excelling on timing routes and identifying the basic coverage system in order to maximize results, which allows the Vikings to keep drives alive while focusing on their rushing attack.
Bridgewater was excellent in an increased role—primarily because of the Vikings' falling behind—against the Packers during Week 10. But, as shown above, he did make a few costly mistakes.
In this instance—which came late during the fourth quarter when the game was essentially over—he elected to loft this attempt to Stefon Diggs. Diggs did make the catch, but the throw carried him out of bounds, resulting in a turnover on downs.
Had Bridgewater rifled his throw into the free zone (roughly outlined by the rectangle), this specific play could have been a touchdown or, at the very least, a substantial gain through the air. It's little decisions like this that can have a dramatic influence on the scoreboard. If the Vikings are to develop a more effective aerial attack, Bridgewater will need to be more efficient in this regard.
Per usual, expect Minnesota to attempt to run the ball early and often against the Falcons, but Bridgewater may be called upon more often, as Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. maintain the potential to put up points quickly and in bunches.
Defensive Game Plan
The Vikings defense will have a tough task against the Falcons' high-powered offense, but not being forced to face touchdown hoarder Devonta Freeman will make the job a bit easier. Freeman, who currently leads the NFL with nine rushing touchdowns, will miss Sunday's action because of a concussion, pushing rookie Tevin Coleman into Atlanta's featured-back role.
This shouldn't change the Falcons' offensive style much, however, as Coleman is capable of carrying the load. Furthermore, Kyle Shanahan has a long resume of balanced offenses, and it will take a lot more than an injury to Freeman to alter his way of calling plays.
Along with running a balanced offensive attack, Shanahan is well-known for maximizing results from his personnel and featuring one or two players as the primary options. In terms of defending against the offense he has constructed in Atlanta, this almost entirely means slowing down wide receiver Julio Jones—especially with Freeman on the shelf.
As the screen shot shows, Matt Ryan has no issue staring down Jones from the moment he finishes his dropback—or even sooner depending on his offense's alignment or coverage the defense is showing.
| Player | Primary Position | Targets |
| Julio Jones | Wide Receiver | 127 |
| Devonta Freeman | Running Back | 60 |
| Jacob Tamme | Tight End | 55 |
| Leonard Hankerson | Wide Receiver | 44 |
| Roddy White | Wide Receiver | 36 |
| Nick Williams | Wide Receiver | 15 |
| Justin Hardy | Wide Receiver | 10 |
| Terron Ward | Running Back | 10 |
| Patrick DiMarco | Fullback | 10 |
| Levine Toilolo | Tight End | 7 |
| Tevin Coleman | Running Back | 6 |
The above statistical chart only reinforces the eye test, as Jones commands the vast majority of targets in this offense. With Freeman and Leonard Hankerson both out on Sunday, Atlanta's No. 1 wide receiver should see even more looks than usual.
While the chart is top-heavy, it does reflect quite a bit of distribution among a variety of players from each skill position. Shanahan will aim to put the ball in Jones' hands, but he has little issue using every weapon at his disposal to drive his team downfield.
In this specific scenario, Jones runs a shallow cross and represents the first read. Roddy White and Levine Toilolo, lined up on the opposite side of the field, also run different levels of the same route, creating plenty of congestion over the middle.
In the midst of this, Patrick DiMarco slips out unnoticed, running a corner route to the left side of the end zone. The effort to slow down Jones burns the Colts on this play, as Ryan notices his fullback slip into an uncovered area of the field. While the play's purpose was to get the ball to Jones, Ryan maintains the intelligence and awareness to step up in the pocket and loft an easy touchdown to one of his other weapons.
DiMarco will rarely be a threat to Minnesota on Sunday, but Ryan's ability combined with Shanahan's philosophy requires opposing defenses to be disciplined and stick to their assignments. While this does make containing Jones more difficult, it ultimately should be what Zimmer expects from his defense, as one play should never single-handedly be enough to win a game.
Harrison Smith will be a major asset in keeping Jones from breaking off big plays, but the Vikings will need Xavier Rhodes to put forth one of his best performances of the year. He has covered Jones well in the past, as exhibited in a snippet by the above screen shot, but the elite Atlanta pass-catcher has been a whole different animal this year.
Stopping the Coleman-led rushing attack will remain priority No. 1, but the Vikings' defensive performance will largely reflect how well Rhodes (primarily), Terence Newman and Smith contain Jones on the outside.
What a Difference a Year Makes
At this point last season, the Vikings held a win-loss record of 4-6. Almost nobody outside of overly optimistic fans of the team considered them a playoff contender. This year, however, is a completely different story, as Minnesota owns a 7-3 mark and is not only competing for a playoff spot but the NFC North crown as well.
While essentially the entire team has improved, the difference in level of performance by Captain Munnerlyn and Linval Joseph is astronomical. For a simple snapshot of this, one may look no further than how each player performed against Atlanta during Week 4 of the 2014 season.
Munnerlyn, whom fans have come to know as a screen-pass destroyer during the second year in Zimmer's system, was not nearly the lethal tackler he is now.
It appears that Munnerlyn is going to tackle Devin Hester well short of the sticks, but instead, Hester is going to break this tackle and run all the way down the sideline for a touchdown. This simply does not happen anymore, as the Vikings' slot cornerback has been a masterful tackler this season despite his small size—relative to the massive ogres he is competing against.
Joseph, similar to Munnerlyn, has been a tackling machine, doing his damage within Minnesota's interior defensive line. He has made countless stops in the backfield for Zimmer's defense, but again, this was not always the case during the first year with his new team.
Running back Steven Jackson, playing in what likely will prove to be his final season in the NFL, breaks free of Joseph's tackle and converts a 3rd-and-short for a Falcons first down. Again, this is a rare occurrence for the Vikings' mammoth nose tackle, as he has been arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the league this season.
What a difference a year makes.
Prediction
Atlanta began the season on a hot streak, winning its first five games and proving it is a whole different team this year. But the Falcons have shown that they are beatable in recent weeks, running a 1-4 record over their next five games. Most recently, the Colts went into the Georgia Dome and defeated Atlanta without Andrew Luck, meaning 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck led Indianapolis to victory.
The Vikings, who also suffered a disappointing defeat during Week 10, will need to prove that their loss to the Packers is in the past, but they are capable of leaving this game with win No. 8.
Minnesota could find itself on the wrong end of this game, but the Vikings have responded well to adversity all season and should do the same this week. Assuming Adrian Peterson is able to get going and Bridgewater can put together an efficient game, this should be a winnable matchup for the Vikings.
Expect this game to be close, but Minnesota's defense should pull through and allow this team to retake control of the NFC North.
Final Score: Vikings 24, Falcons 20
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings notes and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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