Rams vs. Bengals: What's the Game Plan for Cincinnati?

The Cincinnati Bengals get a shot at a rebound against a struggling St. Louis Rams team in Week 12. 

Marvin Lewis' team has lost two straight to fall to 8-2. The conventional narrative will suggest the team collapsed as it always does in prime time, but closer inspection shows one loss was the product of iffy play-calling and the other injury in what were games decided late by no more than six points. 

The St. Louis Rams bring a more vanilla offense to town than the Bengals have faced in recent weeks but also one of the league's up-and-coming running backs in Todd Gurley. St. Louis' defense is a different animal thanks to defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who is every bit as game-changing as Geno Atkins and J.J. Watt, if not more so.

Below, let's take a look at how Cincinnati needs to approach the cross-conference contest to snap a two-game skid.

Offensive Game Plan 

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Run, throw and simply get away from Donald as quickly as possible.

There's no all-encompassing way to explain Donald. He's an elite run defender one lineman simply cannot contain and is an even better pass-rusher right up the middle.

One could point out Donald's No. 1 rank at Pro Football Focus with a grade of 51.0, noting that the next-closest player (Linval Joseph) comes in at 36.2. Atkins sits at 32.8. One could point out that Donald broke through the Baltimore offensive line so violently last week that he slammed down running back Justin Forsett, breaking his arm and ending his season, not just the running play that had hardly got past the handoff stage.

Or one could just digest a note from a mind such as NFL Network's Brian Billick:

Running at Donald with Jeremy Hill in a power-running approach won't work, if not because of Donald's talents then because of how miserable of a season center Russell Bodine continues to experience.

At the same time, outside runs with Giovani Bernard run a similar risk, as pulling a guard to get a blocker outside just leaves more room for Donald to bully his way into the backfield early.

The trick for offensive coordinator Hue Jackson? Quick-hitting passing plays to keep Donald at bay, especially looking for tight end Tyler Eifert. If there's an area the Rams have struggled with this year, it's been containing opposing tight ends, as each of the defense's last two opponents have mustered eight catches for better than 120 yards.

Running away from Donald and otherwise using a short-passing attack to act as the running game is the best approach for the Bengals, meaning short timing patterns and matchup manipulation at the line of scrimmage.

Defensive Game Plan

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The task is much, much more straightforward for the defense. 

It doesn't matter who lines up under center for the Rams. It was going to either be journeyman backup Case Keenum, who is on his way back from a concussion, or Nick Foles, who was benched for the journeyman backup in the first place despite a contract extension earlier this year. The verdict is Foles, according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner, but the situation as a whole tells the whole story.

The problem for the Bengals is Gurley, who despite his rookie status seems to laugh in the face of defenses  that stack eight in the box in an effort to stop him:

OPP	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
vs. PIT	6	9	1.5	0
at ARI	19	146	7.7	0
at GB	30	159	5.3	0
vs. CLE	19	128	6.7	2
vs. SF	20	133	6.7	1
at MIN	24	89	3.7	1
vs. CHI	12	45	3.8	1
at BAL	25	66	2.6	1

Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther cautioned, though, that the Rams will attempt to take advantage of stacked boxes with trickier looks, according to Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer:

"

Some teams are putting eight guys up in there. In my opinion you have to mix it up some. They do things to test the linebackers with all the fake reverses and all that stuff. It's a little bit different of an offensive setup so we have to do things with a lot more run volume than we've seen.

"

St. Louis will mostly attempt to do this with wideout Tavon Austin, who has 241 rushing yards and two scores on the ground with another 31 catches for 310 yards and four scores through the air.

Even so, the Rams rank dead last in passing yards and third-down percentage for good reason. So long as the Bengals play disciplined football with strong gap contain and clean up tackles, the basics should work quite well against a lesser, one-dimensional opponent.

Key Players and Matchups

Andy Dalton

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press/Associated Press

Slight cracks have emerged with Dalton over the past few weeks, as his offensive line has suddenly struggled to keep his jersey clean. Most notably, Dalton's deep ball has been off by a wide margin.

The issues along the offensive line won't get better this week against Donald, so it's up to Dalton to make the right quick decisions after the snap and the right adjustments before it.

To be fair, Dalton's led the team down the field on critical drives in each of the team's two losses and either had receivers fumble it away or convert and watch as the defense struggled. Sunday, Dalton just has to make sure he's once again taking care of the football while under immense pressure.

Russell Bodine

The man the Bengals traded up for on draft day continues to ebb and flow based on the competition he has to line up against.

Bodine ranks as the No. 28 center in the league at PFF on a list grading just 36 players. His worst individual negative grades of the season have come against the best competition, too, mainly against Baltimore (Brandon Williams), Kansas City (Jaye Howard), Seattle (Brandon Mebane) and Pittsburgh (Steve McLendon with a dose of Cameron Heyward).

Now Bodine faces his toughest task to date, and the offense won't always be able to protect him by having a guard help him handle Donald. In those one-on-one scenarios, Bodine's going to need to dig deep.

Vontaze Burfict

It's hard to understate Burfict's impact on the defense.

While the unit has cleaned up tackling issues that were an issue to start the season, Rotoworld's Evan Silva provided some context as to the unit's numbers since Burfict's return:

Burfict needs to help the unit keep this form against one of the league's top backs while also remaining disciplined enough not to get burnt by the big play on a reverse or misdirection.

Prediction

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

This one's going to the Bengals, but not as comfortably as some might think. 

Cincinnati's not going to be able to run the ball well against St. Louis. The problem here, then, is the chance Dalton has a few misfires in the cold, under pressure, to let the Rams hang around.

So long as Bodine gets adequate help in the middle and even more from the offensive scheme itself, the Bengals should be able to pull away late. Gurley's going to keep the Rams in it, as will a big play or two, but the firepower just isn't there for St. Louis to pull off an upset.

With a clock-eating approach in mind, look for the Bengals to win the time of possession and get away with a sloppy victory against an upset-minded team.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, St. Louis 21 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of November 27. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.