Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Buffalo is 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in its last seven meetings with Kansas City, all of which, somewhat amazingly, have occurred in the last seven seasons, as the Bills and Chiefs have met seven years in a row. However, KC has won and covered the last two meetings. In a rematch of the 1966 AFL Championship Game, the Chiefs host the Bills Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.9-13.7 Chiefs

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo had won and covered two AFC East games in a row but lost Monday night at New England 20-13. The Bills, as seven-point underdogs, tied the game at 10-10 early in the third quarter on a LeSean McCoy touchdown run, fell down by 10, pulled to within one score with three minutes to go and got the ball back but were denied a chance at a Hail Mary on a puzzling call along the sidelines as the last few seconds ticked off.

Buffalo actually controlled the ball for most of the night, winning time of possession by almost six minutes, and its defense hit and harassed Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on a regular basis. The Bills just couldn't generate quite enough offense to pull off the upset.

Buffalo outrushed New England 94-85 and on the season is outrushing opponents by 42 yards per game. At 5-5, the Bills are tied for the second AFC wild-card spot, albeit with four other teams—including the Chiefs.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is now 4-1 both SU and ATS since losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season to injury, after stuffing San Diego last week 33-3. The Chiefs outgained the Chargers 385-201, outrushed them 153-52 and won time of possession by over seven minutes—and that's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Its first time out without Charles, six weeks ago at Minnesota, KC managed just 57 yards on the ground; in four games since then, the Chiefs have averaged 151 yards rushing.

And with help from its fourth-ranked run defense, Kansas City is outrushing opponents by 28 yards per game. At 5-5, the Chiefs are also part of that five-team logjam for the No. 6 seed in the AFC.

Smart pick

Buffalo is playing its third straight road game—on a short week, to boot—and quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a sore throwing shoulder. Kansas City, meanwhile, seems to have found a groove, with four straight victories. The smart choice here is the Chiefs.

Betting trends

The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 8-3 SU and ATS in their last 11 games at home.

The Bills are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC West division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.