Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Yas Marina Race
The 2015 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 29 will bring the Formula One season to a close. Last year, Yas Marina was the scene of a tense and thrilling title decider—this time out, it's all about pride.
The balance of power at Mercedes between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg has been shaken in recent races by the German's marked improvement in form. Five consecutive pole positions make him our favourite to start at the front, but can he follow it up with a third successive victory?
Pride is also at stake in the scrap between Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen. The two Finns have banged wheels more than once this term and go into the race separated by just a single point.
Providing both make it to the end in the top 10, whoever finishes ahead will take fourth in the championship.
Read on for our bold predictions for the weekend ahead—including which Finn we think will emerge triumphant.
More Points for Pastor Maldonado
1 of 5
Since Suzuka, Pastor Maldonado has been avoiding the barriers (if not Marcus Ericsson) and quietly chalking up the top 10 finishes.
He was eighth in Japan, seventh in Russia, eighth in the United States and 10th in Brazil. His only pointless race in the last five was in Mexico, where he finished 11th—just six-tenths of a second behind team-mate Romain Grosjean.
The man who a lot of people consider unworthy of a seat in F1 has, it appears, finally found his points-scoring mojo.
Despite this, the bookies don't rate him as likely to finish in the top 10 this coming weekend. Per Oddschecker, he's available at around 2-1—only the Manors, McLarens and Saubers are considered less likely than Maldonado to score in Abu Dhabi.
But we've often backed the Venezuelan in our predictions, and we're doing the same this time around. He has a fairly good record at Yas Marina and will desperately want the team he'll be leading in 2016 to secure sixth in the constructors' championship.
It won't be a massive haul of points, but anything's better than zero.
Williams to End the Year on the Podium
2 of 5
Williams celebrated in Brazil after officially securing third in the constructors' championship for the second consecutive year.
The British team have built two good cars, but a large part of their success is down to their all-conquering Mercedes engine. The decision to ditch Renault at the end of 2013 to hook up with the German manufacturer has certainly paid off.
Williams have not won a race since 2012, but their best result in recent years came at the 2014 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, where Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas finished second and third. It's unlikely they'll be able to repeat that feat at Yas Marina this year, but we can certainly see one of their drivers chalking up his third podium of the season.
Bottas in particular has been qualifying well in recent races, and at the last similar circuit—Sochi—he started third.
That's the same grid slot the Finn started from at Abu Dhabi in 2014. If he can do it again—and maintain track position into Turn 1—he'll be very difficult to overtake and has every chance of ending the year on the podium.
Nico Rosberg on Pole, but Lewis Hamilton to Win
3 of 5
Nico Rosberg has been on incredible form in qualifying of late, taking five consecutive pole positions in a run stretching back to the Japanese Grand Prix in late September.
The German won the last two of the five, but his pole-to-win conversion rate is still poor. It's 50 per cent for the current season—three from six—and just 38 per cent for his F1 career as a whole (eight from 21).
Even if he qualifies on pole again this weekend, the statistics say there are no guarantees he'll also stand on the top step of the podium. It's more likely his team-mate, Lewis Hamilton, will—the Brit has won more races from Rosberg poles in the last two years than Rosberg has.
One of those was at Abu Dhabi in 2014, and we can see history repeating itself this time around. Rosberg was dominant over a single lap last year and current form suggests he should have enough on Saturday to sign off with his sixth pole in a row.
But Hamilton, who really needs a victory to head into the winter on a high, will again steal the win—with the pass probably coming off the line and into Turn 1.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
A Point or 2 (but Probably Just the 1) for McLaren
4 of 5
McLaren's season can't end soon enough.
While fans will feel that cold, crushing sense of despair at the thought of almost four months without F1, Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button might well be delighted they'll no longer have to drive the pathetic package of the McLaren MP4-30 car and the Honda RA615H Hybrid engine.
But can they sign off with a point or two?
Parts of the Yas Marina circuit should suit the car. The tight, slow third sector definitely plays to their strengths, while they might also get a bit of happiness from the sequence of corners down to the hairpin in the early part of the lap.
The long straights of the second sector, though, will certainly cost them time.
Taking the whole layout into account, we think McLaren will have enough single-lap pace to qualify somewhere on or very close to the seventh row—13th and 14th. Both drivers tend to get off the line well so they could be on the cusp of the top 10 after one lap or so.
Keeping quicker cars behind will be very difficult but, with a bit of luck in the form of retirements up the order, we think one of the McLarens will be able to hang on—albeit probably no higher than 10th—to finish the season with a points finish.
How the Few Remaining Close Battles Will Play out
5 of 5
There's nothing to play for at the top end of the championship table, but further down the order, a number of close battles will be decided in Abu Dhabi.
The most important of these is between Lotus and Toro Rosso for sixth in the constructors' championship—and it's all about the money. Per figures published by Autosport, the sixth-placed team in 2014 received $6 million more than the one that came in seventh.
To midfield runners, that sort of money could make a real difference to their 2016 development programmes. Lotus go into the race nine points clear, but they have a third place to their name thanks to Romain Grosjean's great drive at Spa.
This means that—unless they also score a podium—Toro Rosso need 10 more points than their rivals to take sixth. We can see them outscoring Lotus, but not by that much.
Another interesting scrap is the Battle of Finland between Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen. The pair have had two big on-track collisions in 2015 and go into the final race separated by just a single point.
Bottas is currently ahead but his lead is fragile. If Raikkonen scores even a single point, he'll be classified ahead as long as he beats Bottas. This is because he came second in the Bahrain Grand Prix; Bottas has finished no higher than third.
But the younger Finn has driven better this year than his world champion rival—so we're backing Bottas to come out on top.
Further down the order, it's tight between Romain Grosjean and Max Verstappen for 11th. The pair both have 49 points; whoever finishes ahead, providing he's in the points, will take the position. Toro Rosso should have a slight edge at Yas Marina, so we're backing Verstappen for this one.
Felipe Nasr and Pastor Maldonado are also level on points in the fight to be second-best South American. We can't see Sauber being quick enough for points—so Maldonado is our pick here.
Daniil Kvyat is 10 points clear of Daniel Ricciardo and looks a nailed-on certainty to end the year as top Red Bull driver, while Nico Hulkenberg needs to finish second at worst to overhaul Sergio Perez—that's not going to happen.
But the German should do enough to retain his grasp on 10th.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
