5 Individual Matchups the Indianapolis Colts Must Win Against the Falcons
The Indianapolis Colts will be without Andrew Luck at quarterback this Sunday in Atlanta, which creates an added amount of pressure on the non-quarterbacks on the roster.
Sure, Luck hadn't played well to start this season, but he's a much better playmaker than Matt Hasselbeck, and a less quarterback-heavy game plan will create a burden on other players' shoulders. The Colts are faced with an unusual crowd at the top of the AFC South, so this is not a time where the team can afford a slide.
Fortunately, the Colts are faced with one of the easiest second-half schedules of any team in the league, with just two of their remaining opponents possessing a winning record.
Unfortunately, one of those teams comes in Week 11, as the Colts will face the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons got off to a blistering 5-0 start this season, but have lost three of the last four, with the lone win a 10-7 nail-biter in Tennessee. While their pedigree is inconsistent, Atlanta is still a force to be reckoned with, especially for a team without its starting quarterback.
So what individual matchups will the Colts need to win to pull off the road upset?
Frank Gore vs. Atlanta Linebackers
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With Rob Chudzinski taking over at offensive coordinator, the Colts want to be able to run the ball.
With Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, the Colts want to be able to run the ball.
It's all setting up for Frank Gore's usage to increase, and stay consistent, in upcoming weeks, and the first test in a more run-heavy offense will come against Atlanta. Fortunately for Gore, it's also a matchup he can win.
The Falcons' biggest weakness on defense is its inside linebackers. Starters Justin Durant and Paul Worrilow have the two lowest grades from Pro Football Focus on the defense, and Durant has struggled with injuries to boot.
While the Falcons defensive line is generally stout against the run, the linebackers should give Gore opportunities for big gains. Gore has four gains of 20 yards or more on the season, tied for 10th among running backs, but his longest is just 25 yards.
Gore and fellow back Ahmad Bradshaw will also likely be able to find some room on passing plays. Football Outsiders has the Falcons ranked 30th in the league against running backs in passing DVOA.
Donte Moncrief vs. Robert Alford
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In order for the Colts passing game to step up with Luck out, the team will need strong play from its wide receivers, particularly in yards after the catch. With Pep Hamilton at the helm to start the season, the Colts had the sixth-fewest yards after the catch in their first nine games, according to Matt Harmon of NFL.com.
If the Colts are going to get their YAC offense back on track, they'll need to get Donte Moncrief the ball.
The second-year receiver's performance has dipped over the last five weeks, but he'll need to come up big against the Falcons. Desmond Trufant, the Falcons' up-and-coming No. 1 cornerback, will likely be on T.Y. Hilton for most of the game, although the Colts can move their receivers around to get different matchups.
Moncrief spends most of his time on the left side, which should be opposite No. 2 cornerback Robert Alford. The third-year pro has had a decent season, but is nowhere near the level of Trufant. In the Falcons defense, which is Seattle Seahawks-like under head coach Dan Quinn, Moncrief will certainly see a lot of press-man and Cover 3 looks from Alford and the Falcons safeties.
In addition, Alford has been limited with a hamstring injury in practice this week and may not be 100 percent for Sunday's contest. If Alford is out, Moncrief gets a juicy matchup with rookie cornerback Jalen Collins.
With linebackers that are prone to missed tackles (Justin Durant is ranked 40th among 4-3 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus, and Paul Worrilow is ranked 39th among inside linebackers), it will be Moncrief's job to get separation quickly and make things happen after the catch.
Moncrief has to be able to do that versus an Atlanta defense that is ranked 23rd against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Vontae Davis. vs. Julio Jones
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As marquee of a matchup as you'll find in this game, Julio Jones against Vontae Davis should be quite the battle to watch—if the two teams' coaching staffs allow it to happen.
It's an encounter between the best player on the Falcons roster against the best player on the Colts defense. While Davis has had his struggles this season, he should be totally healed after a much-needed bye week, and his athletic ability and strength will be much needed against Atlanta's physical freak.
Atlanta likes to move Jones around, so he won't go up against Davis on every snap. But the Colts, who have not been afraid to have Davis shadow receivers, can't let Jones line up across from Greg Toler on every play. Even if Davis plays on his traditional right side for most downs, he and Jones will have their moments.
Because Toler has been such a liability for the Colts this season, Davis has to hold his ground against Jones, who leads the league in receptions so far this season. Jones will get his production, but the Colts have to limit the big plays. With speedster Leonard Hankerson likely returning this week, Toler will need safety help no matter who he's lining up against.
So when Davis does get a chance to go up against Jones, he has to play like the elite cornerback he was labeled as last season.
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David Parry vs. Mike Person
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With rookie stud Henry Anderson out for the rest of the season with an ACL tear, somebody has to step up and be a playmaker on the defensive line. That will likely be a team effort, with no other individuals possessing the caliber of disruption Anderson had.
This week, the Colts hope it can be rookie defensive tackle David Parry. He started his career strong, tearing up the preseason and taking over the starting nose tackle role. But as the regular season's gone on, his play has been much less consistent, as it often is with rookies.
Parry's negative-6.4 grade from Pro Football Focus is the only negative grade among the five main rotational defensive linemen on the team, although 5.8 of that negative grade came in a poor showing against the New Orleans Saints. For a rookie, especially a fifth-round pick, Parry has played well, but the Colts will need him to ramp it up with Anderson out.
He has a chance to do that Sunday, as he'll often be matched up with center Mike Person. While most of the Atlanta offensive line has had a resurgence in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking system, Person continues to struggle. His negative-6.1 grade from Pro Football Focus is the only negative one among the starters.
If the Colts are going to take advantage of a matchup on the offensive line, this has to be it. With Devonta Freeman running wild this season and Matt Ryan needing pressure to shake him off balance, Parry's role will be huge on Sunday.
Jerrell Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson vs. Devonta Freeman
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This might be the most imposing matchup of the day, but it's one the Colts have to have some success in if they want to have a chance in Atlanta.
Devonta Freeman has burst onto the scene this season, finding a home in Kyle Shanahan's zone-running schemes. Freeman currently ranks third in the league in rushing yards, including four 100-yard games in the last seven.
While Freeman hasn't been a big-play threat (his longest gain is just 25 yards, making him the only back in the top 10 in total rushing without a rush of 30 yards or more), he's consistently gashed defenses. Freeman has 67 runs of five yards or more, the most in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Adrian Peterson (66) is the only other back in the league with more than 53 such runs.
While Freeman isn't necessarily the best at getting to the next gear in the open field and making big plays happen, he's been phenomenal at getting to the second level and gaining chunks of yardage early in down sequences.
The Colts can't allow Freeman to continually give the Falcons a 5-10-yard boost. The team has been relatively good at keeping runners contained, ranking seventh in the league in "second-level" (between five and 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) yards, per Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense ranks first in the league in this measure.
Keeping Freeman contained in the first level will be up to the linebackers, who have done a good job getting stops behind this year's defensive line. Can they continue that with Henry Anderson out? Freeman and the Atlanta offensive line will be a stiff first test.
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