Texans vs. Bengals: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan:

The following statement may sound counterintuitive or silly to some, but the Houston Texans need to commit to the running game against Cincinnati regardless of its success early in the game.

Houston's running game this year with Arian Foster missing most of the season has been lousy, but they can't afford to get pass-happy on the road against a pass rush that ranks fifth in the league in sacks.

Joel Auerbach/Associated Press

The Texans rushing "attack" has been pathetic this season with an average of 87.9 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, which ranks 29th and 32nd respectively, but their opponent this week has struggled against the run this year, so there is a glimmer of hope in this matchup.

Cincinnati ranks in the middle of the league in yards per game allowed but have given up a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry this season. The Texans running game might struggle despite the favorable matchup, but why wouldn't you go after a glaring weakness like this?

Not only does there seem to be an opportunity available to move the ball against Cincinnati, but sticking with the running game will also lower the odds of a costly turnover and help keep a dangerous Bengals offense off the field.

That might seem like a very basic, common sense type of approach, but do they really have another option?

Defensive Game Plan:

The Bengals have too many weapons for the Texans to realistically expect to or attempt to shut down everything. That being the case, they should try to focus on taking away one aspect of the Cincinnati offense to make them one-dimensional and hopefully force mistakes.

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has had a great season, but he hasn't done enough to convince me that he's completely turned the corner and won't turn back into "bad Andy" if pressured consistently and put into bad yardage situations often enough.

You could argue that this strategy is a bit risky and exposes the Texans defense to potential big plays against the pass, but they can't allow the Bengals to beat them on the ground. If the Bengals running game is working, not only would they be controlling the clock, but the entire passing game would be open to them.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Dalton has a history of making mistakes, but he won't make them if he only has to pass on 2nd-and-short or is allowed to throw the easier underneath routes.

The Texans need to take away their running game not only to limit yards and prevent them from chewing up the clock, but doing so would also put the Bengals offense in more 3rd-and-long situations.

Putting them in long down-and-distance situations makes their passing game more predictable with its routes and could lead to turnovers.

Dalton's career passing splits on 3rd-and-long compared to 3rd-and-short illustrate my point and why this strategy could work.

With one-to-six yards to go for a first down, Dalton has a combined 52 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions; nearly a five-to-one ratio. With seven yards or more to go for a first down, Dalton has thrown 65 touchdowns, but with 59 interceptions; not even a two-to-one ratio.

Taking it one step further with his career passing splits, Dalton on 3rd-and-four-to-six yards to go and also short-yardage situations on third or fourth down, has thrown for 23 touchdowns with just six interceptions.

On the other side of that, when Dalton has been put into 3rd-and-seven or more to go situations during his career, he's thrown 13 touchdowns with 19 interceptions; a significant drop off.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Bengals are undefeated despite being held under 100 rushing yards twice this season, so this plan isn't fool proof, but it is the Texans' only chance.

In the two games—against Baltimore and Pittsburgh—the Bengals have been held under 100 rushing yards, they've turned the ball over four times and won those two games by an average margin of five points.

In the six games the Bengals have rushed for over 100 yards, they've turned the ball over a total of four times and won those six games by an average margin of 12.8 points.

Again, they still won both games in which they rushed for less than 100 yards. But the over seven-point difference in margin of victory and the turnovers per game ratio tripling clearly shows an opportunity for success if Houston can stop the run.

This strategy could certainly backfire with receiving threats like A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert on the field, but putting their focus on stopping the Cincinnati running game and hoping that Dalton makes a mistake seems like the Texans' best chance of pulling off an upset.

Key Players and Matchups:

Tyler Eifert vs. Texans Linebackers

Through the Bengals' first eight games, Eifert has 37 receptions for 434 yards and nine touchdowns. Those numbers for receptions and yards are good for the position, but his touchdown total through just half of a season makes him a poor man's version of Rob Gronkowski this season.

Compared against all NFL tight ends, Eifert ranks 11th in receptions and eighth in yards this year but leads the league in receiving touchdowns—two more than Gronkowski.

As we've seen multiple times, the Texans don't have an inside linebacker on their roster capable of coverage quality tight ends; especially after releasing Mike Mohamed. Brian Cushing doesn't have the speed anymore and Benardrick McKinney as a rookie just doesn't seem ready. The Texans will need to use a safety.

A.J. Green vs. Johnathan Joseph

Multiple-time Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Green ranks 11th in both receptions and receiving yards by a wide receiver this season and is on pace to finish the year with 100 catches for 1,404 yards.

Not only is Green a very talented wide receiver, but at 6'4", he'll also be a height mismatch against the 5'11" Joseph.

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Green had a huge game for Cincinnati when these two teams met last year in Week 12, recording 12 receptions for 121 yards. The rest of the Bengals' receiving targets combined for just 12 receptions and 112 receiving yards that game.

Johnathan Joseph didn't line up against Green very often in that game, so as you might guess, he had a solid performance against his former team. In that game, Joseph allowed just three receptions for 26 yards and no touchdowns and intercepted Andy Dalton once.

Joseph returned that interception 60 yards for the Texans' only touchdown of the day.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 17

Despite a clear strategy on both sides of the ball that could lead to success, the Texans just don't have enough talent or the resume of playing well enough to suggest that they're capable of executing the game plan and pulling off the upset.

As mentioned earlier in the article, they rank 29th and 32nd in the league in rushing yards per game and yards per attempt on offense, but they also rank 27th, 21st and 23rd respectively in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and yards per attempt allowed on defense.

Strategies are useless if you can't execute them.

The Bengals are the better team and they're at home. It's hard to pick against them in this game.