Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: What's the Game Plan for Green Bay?
The Green Bay Packers will be back in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field this weekend when they take on the Detroit Lions in a Week 10 matchup of NFC North division foes.
The Packers (6-2) are riding a two-game losing streak—both losses coming against undefeated opponents on the road—while the Lions (1-7) are fresh off their bye week after a poor start to the season.
Sunday's contest will be the 172nd meeting between these division rivals—a series Green Bay has dominated. The Packers own a 97-67-7 head-to-head advantage, including 24 straight wins over Detroit at home.
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Green Bay's recent losing spell has pushed it back into a tie with Minnesota for the division lead. Not only would a win this weekend give them confidence heading into a Week 11 matchup with the Vikings, but it would also be the Packers' 13th straight victory at Lambeau.
Before we look further down the schedule, though, the Packers must first take care of business at home against the Lions. Let's look ahead to the game plans Green Bay could use on both offense and defense on Sunday.
Offensive Game Plan
The Packers made national headlines on Wednesday when head coach Mike McCarthy announced James Starks would take over for Eddie Lacy as the team's No. 1 running back at least for this week.
For the 29-year-old Starks, the change couldn't have come at a better time.
Starks, whose 334 rushing yards this season barely trumps Lacy's total of 308, could be in line for a huge day on the ground, as he'll face Detroit's 30th-ranked run defense. The Lions are allowing 133.8 rushing yards per game and have given up a league-leading 14 rushing touchdowns through the first nine weeks.
Considering the struggles Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gone through lately, it might be wise for the Packers to dedicate to the ground game early and often to put scoring drives together.
In 2015, no NFL team has a higher rate of three-and-out drives than Green Bay, according to ESPN Stats & Info and ESPN's Rob Demovsky. Forty percent of the team's drives this season have failed to move the chains even once—a far cry from what Packers fans are used to seeing from their offense.
| Year | % of Drives | NFL Rank |
| 2015 | 40.0 | 32nd |
| 2014 | 24.9 | 1st (tie) |
| 2013 | 30.6 | 5th |
| 2012 | 29.0 | 4th |
| 2011 | 27.8 | 7th |
| 2010 | 37.2 | 25th |
| 2009 | 29.3 | 4th |
| 2008 | 34.1 | 13th |
As the table above shows, the Packers' rate of converting first downs in a drive's first three plays is not only the league's worst, but it's also considerably higher than in recent years.
Furthermore, having too many three-and-outs goes beyond how much it hurts the offense. Despite running a season-high 72 offensive plays in last week's loss to Carolina, the Packers went three-and-out in eight of their 16 total possessions.
As Demovsky notes, Green Bay's defense may have suffered the most:
"The Packers possessed the ball for less than two minutes on three consecutive three-and-out series in the second quarter Sunday, which meant little time for the defense to rest.
"
In that second quarter, the Panthers rattled off 24 straight points to give them a comfortable lead heading into halftime.
Switching to Starks as the lead back against Detroit may have been the perfect storm the Packers offense needs—especially against such a porous rush defense.
If the Packers can get Starks going on the ground—with some Lacy change-of-pace thrown in—its drives will be longer and thus more beneficial for the defense throughout the game.
Defensive Game Plan
If the Lions' 1-7 record wasn't enough evidence, maybe a string of poor offensive statistics can convince you they're truly one of the league's worst teams.
Their offense scores just 18.6 points per game (31st in the NFL) while rushing for a league-worst 69.6 yards per game. Even worse, only one of their running backs has gained over 100 yards on the ground over the team's first eight games—rookie Ameer Abdullah has 225.
So Detroit just passes a lot, right? Yes, but it's mostly because it has had to come back from deficits in almost every game this season. Either way, going to the air has proved costly in the long run.
The Lions' 12 interceptions thrown are tied for the second-most of any NFL team. Starting quarterback Matthew Stafford was even benched in the third quarter of a blowout loss to Arizona last month after he threw his third pick of the day.
Unfortunately, the Packers still have to worry about one of the league's best wide receivers in Calvin Johnson.
He's far and away the most dangerous offensive weapon at Stafford's disposal and can single-handedly win his team a game—as he did against Chicago four weeks ago.
Johnson caught a 57-yard pass in overtime to put the Lions in field-goal range to win the game. His 166-yard, one touchdown day remains his only one this season when he went over 100 yards receiving. Coincidentally, the win remains the only one for Detroit in 2015.
All Green Bay needs to do is limit Johnson in the passing game with double-teams in the red zone and physical play throughout.
It's easier said than done for the Packers' struggling and banged-up secondary, yet they might get a break on Sunday—Johnson missed practice Friday while nursing a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable on the Lions' most recent injury report.
If Megatron is a no-go this weekend, the only offensive players Green Bay has to worry about are wideout Golden Tate, pass-catching back Theo Riddick and tight end Eric Ebron—still, all have at least 280 less receiving yards than their injured teammate.
Players and Matchups to Watch
RB James Starks
Earlier, we outlined the perfect matchup Starks has in front of him this weekend. Starks will be the lead back in a seemingly revived Packers offense with a horrendous Detroit run defense in front of him.
Ideally for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers and the offense would provide a comfortable enough lead in the first half to give Starks an extended look at running back in the latter part of the game.
The Packers need to find out soon what they are dealing with at the position—and Starks is set up to win the job in his first week as the starter if he can have a big day.
We'll also likely see Starks catch a few passes out of the backfield on Sunday as a checkdown for Rodgers.
WR Davante Adams
Packers fans finally got the Davante Adams breakout performance they've been hoping for with Jordy Nelson shelved for the season.
Against Carolina last week, Adams caught a team-high seven passes on 11 targets for 93 yards in the loss. His big day also opened up the secondary for Randall Cobb to do his damage as the slot receiver—Cobb finished with 99 receiving yards and a touchdown on four catches.
If the Packers offense wants to improve, they'll need Adams to step up and become a reliable receiver alongside Cobb and James Jones.
Look for Rodgers to get Adams involved early and often to keep his confidence up—even if it's on short passes to the outside.
Packers O-Line vs. Lions DE Ezekiel Ansah
Green Bay's big men up front—specifically the offensive tackles—have faced their share of elite pass-rushers this season. There were the dynamic duos of Kansas City, St. Louis and Denver and a select few playmakers on almost every other opponent.
This week, though, presents an entirely new challenge in third-year defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, whose seven sacks this season are tied for fourth in the league.
So what's the big worry?
Well, Ansah is athletically a freak of nature. The combination of his 6'5", 278-pound frame and 4.62 40-yard dash time is tough for any offensive tackle to deal with off the edge. Plus, the Brigham Young product is entering the prime of his career—at the midpoint of the season, he's already a sack away from tying his career-high total of eight in his rookie year.
As Ansah mainly rushes from the right side of Detroit's 4-3 defense, he'll likely be matched up with Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari on Rodgers' blind side.
It's a big job for Green Bay's third-year lineman, but one he should be battle-tested for.
Game Prediction
Green Bay couldn't have asked for a better situation after losing its last two on the road to undefeated opponents.
A home game with Detroit brings the best of both worlds together, as the Packers are practically unbeatable at Lambeau right now, and the Lions can't buy a victory in the state of Wisconsin.
Expect Aaron Rodgers and Co. to get going early on offense both through the air and on the ground. After having one of the worst games of his career a couple weeks ago, Rodgers bounced back against Carolina to the tune of 369 passing yards and four touchdowns. He, along with every Packers fan across the country, would love for that production to stick.
The Packers really don't have much to be worried about on defense. The Lions have had trouble scoring all season, and they won't magically get better this week—even with a bye to prepare.
Green Bay's secondary needs to simply not let Calvin Johnson beat them—that is, if the star receiver is healthy enough to play.
Final Prediction: Packers 34, Lions 17
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