Indianapolis Colts Week 9 Stock Report
For the third consecutive time this season, the Indianapolis Colts' team stock fell on Monday night, as they lost a 29-26 overtime thriller to the Carolina Panthers.
The Colts now have a three-game losing streak for the first time since 2011, that dreaded season with Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback.
In response to the loss, the Colts fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, replacing him with Rob Chudzinski for the time being. While the team hopes the move can kick-start the offense, quarterback Andrew Luck and the rest of the unit will have a tough time getting back on track against the Denver Broncos defense.
The Broncos lead the league in almost every important statistical category on defense and held Aaron Rodgers and the vaunted Green Bay passing offense to just 77 passing yards last week.
It seems unlikely that a struggling Colts team will be able to do much more.
Still, the games are played for a reason, and you never know what the outcome of a single game will be. With that in mind, let's take a look at the stock of a few individuals heading into Week 9.
Stock Down: Andrew Luck
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Andrew Luck finished Monday night's contest the same way he started it: with a turnover.
Playing as poorly as he ever has in his career for much of the game, Luck was the biggest reason the Colts fell into a 23-6 hole. Turnovers by Luck set the Panthers up inside the Indianapolis 40-yard line four times, resulting in 19 points for the Panthers, including the game-winning field goal in overtime.
A pregame report by Jay Glazer of Fox Sports stated that Luck had been playing through broken ribs for several weeks, but even that couldn't explain how Luck played to start the game against Carolina.
Luck missed reads, sailed short passes, misread the defense before the snap and generally just looked like a rookie quarterback in over his head. The pouring rain may have been a factor here as well, but in the end, there is no excuse that can take the blame away from Luck.
Now, Luck was able to get into a rhythm in the no-huddle offense in the fourth quarter, but his troubles weren't completely gone.
While he did orchestrate a comeback that sent the game into overtime, Luck almost threw the game away several times—including on the last offensive play of regulation, throwing into double coverage when a simple throw out of bounds would have sufficed.
And, of course, there was that essentially game-ending interception in overtime.
There are a multitude of reasons for why Luck's playing so poorly, but the fact that he is playing poorly remains. Until the Colts get that fixed, nothing else matters.
Stock Up: Coby Fleener
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While it seems like fellow tight end Dwayne Allen has all but disappeared from the offensive game plan, fourth-year tight end Coby Fleener has continued to be a key part of the passing offense this season.
On Monday, with the Carolina secondary locking down the receivers on the outside, Luck turned to Fleener and Andre Johnson on the inside with much success. Fleener finished with seven catches for 43 yards and a touchdown, while Johnson hauled in four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown.
Fleener still isn't as strong at the catch point as some would like, failing to haul in two catchable balls in the end zone and allowing Roman Harper to knock away the pass on what ended up being the game-ending interception.
His effectiveness will be limited as long as that's the case.
But as an underneath target, Fleener is getting open and giving Luck a bit of a safety blanket—even if it is for less than nine yards per catch.
With Chudzinski now running the offense, Fleener could start seeing even more looks, especially down the field. The longtime offensive coach started out as a tight ends coach, and the teams he has been with have always gotten great production from their tight ends.
In 2004, for example, Chudzinski got 70 catches, over 800 yards and nine combined touchdowns out of Steve Heiden and Aaron Shea.
In 2005-2006, Chudzinski worked with Antonio Gates in San Diego, leading to two of the top four statistical seasons the future Hall of Famer has ever had. He would work with him again from 2009-2010, leading to another one of the top four seasons (the most yards of Gates' career in 2009) and two of his top three years in terms of yards per catch.
In 2007, Kellen Winslow had the best year of his career with Chudzinski as the offensive coordinator, racking up over 1,100 yards. Chudzinski later worked with Jordan Cameron in Cleveland during his breakout season and Greg Olsen in Carolina.
Can Coby Fleener—and also Dwayne Allen—become Chudzinski's next great project?
Stock Down: T.Y. Hilton
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While Andrew Luck has played poorly to start this season, it hasn't helped that the other top-end members of the team have struggled as well. Vontae Davis, Anthony Castonzo and T.Y. Hilton have all underperformed this season, and when the top of a top-heavy roster doesn't play well, you get a 3-5 start.
Perhaps most disappointing of those names is T.Y. Hilton, who has played through some nagging injuries but has still been unable to consistently get the separation that made him such a threat last season.
Part of the blame goes to Luck, who has been unable to hit the downfield throws that make Hilton such a threat, but Hilton has still struggled with tight man coverage too often this season.
On Monday, Hilton matched up with up-and-coming cornerback Josh Norman, who essentially shut down the fourth-year wide receiver, limiting him to just one catch on seven targets.
Now, Norman is a star and played exceptionally well, but Hilton also has the tendency to trust the accuracy of Luck, waiting for the ball to come to him rather than attacking it in midair. When Luck is off, like he has been this season, it makes for an easier path for defenders.
But on top of all that, Hilton is also now suffering from a foot injury. According to Colts.com, he has not practiced yet this week.
Even if he can dress for the Colts' game against the Denver Broncos, he'll be going up against what has been the best secondary in the league.
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Stock Up: Jerrell Freeman
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Considering how poorly the Colts linebackers have performed for the last few seasons, any kind of positive contributions from them are always appreciated.
But against Carolina, Jerrell Freeman went above and beyond a positive contribution: He was downright fantastic. Freeman has always been inconsistent, but Monday's performance was a reminder that he can be a huge asset when he's playing well. Remember the playoff game in Denver last season?
Freeman was everywhere in this game, finishing with 12 official tackles. Pro Football Focus credited him with nine solo tackles and four assists to lead the team, including a team-leading five stops. Freeman was incredibly reliable in the open field, something the Colts desperately need considering their inconsistency in the back end.
For this, PFF rewarded him with a plus-8.2 grade, easily the best of his career.
A big part of his resurgence has been in the run game, where he and D'Qwell Jackson have looked much better this season, in part because of a revamped defensive line. Jackson and Freeman are first and second in run-stop percentage among inside linebackers in the league, per PFF.
While the Colts need to figure something out in pass defense, this combination is something they can work with in the run game.
Stock Down: Chuck Pagano
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The Colts firing Pep Hamilton earlier this week says one thing to me: There is some thought that Chuck Pagano can still save his job.
Still, after yet another horrific start and eventual loss, you can't say Pagano's arrow is pointed up.
The inner turmoil in the Colts' organization has reached the locker room, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star, and while that is both the fault of general manager Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano, it's likely Pagano's job that will be the most threatened.
Pagano has to maintain control of the locker room, and the results this season suggest that control is slipping.
The Colts routinely start games poorly, and the team's most critical players are a part of the problem. Despite this roster being the "best it's ever been" this season, the results have not been there, and that generally doesn't end well for a coach.
Pagano is a players' coach and the Colts still love him, but his ability to get them to buy in might be slipping.
If recently promoted Rob Chudzinski can't get the offense going and the slow starts continue, Pagano might be up next on the chopping block.
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