Why Oklahoma Can Be the Ohio State of the 2015 College Football Playoff

Oklahoma is forgotten in—but not entirely out of—the College Football Playoff race.

It's easy to understand why no one's talking about the Sooners. They're the lowest-ranked Big 12 team in the initial CFP rankings (No. 15) with a bad loss to Texas.

When the Big 12's November slate is mentioned—no other Power Five conference has a more brutal, backloaded schedule—the discussion usually revolves around Baylor and TCU, and whether they can remain undefeated heading into their Nov. 27 game.

Oklahoma State, the third undefeated Big 12 team, is filling the role of the dark horse, as noted by Max Olson of ESPN.com. The Cowboys get all their toughest remaining games at home, including TCU this Saturday.

So where does that leave Oklahoma? It's odd to think of head coach Bob Stoops' team as the outcast, but that's essentially how it's labeled.

But there's another way to look at the Sooners as they enter the critical stretch of the season: They can be the Ohio State of the 2015 College Football Playoff.

Like the Buckeyes last year, the Sooners have an almost inexplicable loss. How Stoops has prepared for Texas over the last three years is a legitimate question that has already been asked.

“I think maybe we jumped a little ahead of ourselves Texas week,” wide receiver Sterling Shepard said, per Jason Kersey of the Oklahoman. “The most important game is the next game.”

Otherwise, the Sooners are still a top-tier team in their conference. And like with the Buckeyes in 2014, the opportunity to get better at the right time is there for the taking.

The gap between Oklahoma and the Big 12's three undefeated teams isn't that large. On paper, seven points are what separate the top four teams in the Big 12 from being 31-0 instead of 30-1. 

And Oklahoma has dominated outside of its loss to the Longhorns. The Sooners' average point differential when winning is plus-32.1 points per game. Only Baylor has a larger margin of victory at 36 points per game in the Big 12.

The Sooners win in advanced stats, too.

Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer told Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports that points per possession is one of the most important metrics for a team's success. Sure enough, BCF Toys indicates that Oklahoma ranks eighth nationally in points scored per offensive drive.

An expanded table of Oklahoma's advanced stats compared to those of the Big 12's "Big Three" shows the Sooners are actually the best overall defense in terms of preventing points per drive. Oklahoma's offense, while lagging behind the likes of Baylor and TCU in similar offensive categories, is more than serviceable.

Team	OPD	OVD	OLD	DPD	DVD	DLD	NPD
Baylor	No. 1	No. 1	No. 1	No. 35	No. 116	No. 53	2.76
Oklahoma	No. 8	No. 7	No. 22	No. 21	No. 25	No. 30	1.90
Oklahoma State	No. 12	No. 14	No. 8	No. 31	No. 79	No. 40	1.31
TCU	No. 3	No. 13	No. 2	No. 69	No. 43	No. 81	1.38

BCF Toys explains its categories as follows:

"

Teams are ranked by net points scored per drive (NPD), the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per value drive for the offense (OVD) opponent offenses (DVD) are calculated on possessions that begin on the offense's own side of midfield and reach at least the opponent's 30-yard line. Points per long drive for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense's own 20-yard line.

"

Oklahoma's success on defense is important because Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State rank first, second and fifth in the Big 12 in points per game, respectively. All average at least 44 points per game.

So now that we know where Oklahoma stacks up in the Big 12 on the stat sheet, how can this team make an Ohio State-type run to the playoff?

It starts with taking care of your own business, which for the Sooners means better blocking up front. A largely new-look offensive line proved to be the glaring weakness in the loss to Texas. Oklahoma was terrible in pass protection when the Longhorns defense rushed extra men. The Sooners also couldn't run the ball, averaging a season-low 1.81 yards per carry (including sacks).

If all of that sounds like Ohio State's problem last year against Virginia Tech, you're not mistaken.

Moving forward, Oklahoma has to do a better job of creating lanes for Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to run over and around people.

This is where O-line coach Bill Bedenbaugh will earn his paycheck. Like with Ohio State in 2014, the question is, can this O-line come together as the season progresses? If it does, there's more than enough talent to propel the offense into a different gear.

Jackson Laizure/Getty Images

Secondly, Oklahoma's remaining schedule, while daunting, does present some breaks.

The Sooners will get Baylor's new quarterback, true freshman Jarrett Stidham, in just his second start. They also get TCU at home, and the Horned Frogs have been a vastly different team on the road—and not for the better.

The season-ending game at Oklahoma State will be a challenge, but Stoops has a 12-4 record against the Cowboys and is 6-2 in Stillwater. If nothing else, Stoops has history on his side.

There are drawbacks, of course, for looping Oklahoma into the playoff conversation. While there is precedent of a one-loss team getting into the playoff, there isn't one for when that loss comes to a sub-.500 team. Unless Texas head coach Charlie Strong can work miracles, it's possible the Longhorns miss a bowl game.

No. 16 Florida State, another playoff long shot, is in a similar boat due to its loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago.

However, the Seminoles would have an ACC Championship Game to play if they beat Clemson and win out. That's something Oklahoma and the Big 12 do not have—not yet, anyway. That 13th game could be a great equalizer against a bad loss.

There's no doubt that the Sooners have a lot of ground to cover. Brandon Chatmon of ESPN.com wrote, "No matter how good the Sooners look and how many quality wins they secure, Oklahoma’s loss to Texas is like a cinder block preventing its rise into playoff contention. Style points will matter for the Sooners, and Bob Stoops' team has minimal room for error."

But given how Oklahoma has played post-Texas, and with advanced stats speaking for themselves, the notion of the Sooners winning the Big 12 isn't that far-fetched. Plus, there are five weeks for all hell to break loose.

For a sport that enjoys dabbling in the strange, Oklahoma making a late-season push to the playoff wouldn't be the strangest development.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com unless noted otherwise.