5 Matchups the Indianapolis Colts Must Win Against the Carolina Panthers
Every game is a must-win game for the Indianapolis Colts.
Sure, the AFC South is bad enough that the team could still make the playoffs with losses piling up. But every time the Colts rack up another loss, the more likely it is that a key figure gets fired before the season ends.
Maybe it's head coach Chuck Pagano. Maybe it's offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. Maybe it's another assistant coach. Maybe owner Jim Irsay blows his top and cleans house.
Either way, if the Colts enter the bye week at 3-6, it would be more surprising if there wasn't a midseason firing than if there was.
So the Colts have to approach each game as a must-win. It's no longer an option to start games slow. For Indianapolis, a win over undefeated teams like the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos over the next two weeks might be the only way to keep anybody interested in the team's 2015 fortunes.
In order to pull the upset, however, the Colts will need to win several key matchups. Heading to Carolina, the chips are stacked against them. Here are five matchups the Colts must win in order to alter their season's course.
Andrew Luck vs. Luke Kuechly
1 of 5
It's no secret that Andrew Luck has struggled through the first seven weeks of the season.
It's also no secret that Luke Kuechly has been one of the league's best middle linebackers over the last few years, much less in 2015. Kuechly is currently the top-rated inside linebacker, per Pro Football Focus' grades, in case you needed any proof.
No matter the circumstances, the matchup between the league's most hyped young quarterback and most hyped young middle linebacker would always be a premium one, but this year's battle is absolutely critical for Indianapolis.
There will be plenty of physical battles during Monday night's game, but the mental one between Luck and Kuechly might be the most fascinating.
Luck has struggled to read defenses prior to the snap this season, getting confused at will by New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan last week and regularly struggling to call plays in which the first read is open. Watch Luck's first pick last week, where he misread the "Mike" linebacker's coverage responsibility and threw a terrible interception as a result.
If the Colts offense is to get back into rhythm against a defense like Carolina's, it will start before the ball is snapped. Luck has to be better in those situations, but going up against Kuechly will make for an extremely rocky road toward offensive rejuvenation.
Jack Mewhort and Jonotthan Harrison vs. Kawann Short
2 of 5
The Panthers have one of the league's stingiest defenses, ranking sixth overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric.
The Colts will have to find a few exploitable matchups in order to get their offense back on track, and the one that they might be able to take advantage of is Carolina's rushing defense. The Panthers are ranked just 22nd in run defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA, compared to second against the pass.
If the Colts want to get the offense going, they'll have to give the ball to Frank Gore.
Gore, of course, has had a strong start to the season, outside of two early goal-line fumbles, but has had a relatively low workload. The Colts have to start giving him the ball more, especially early in games to set up the play-action deep shots that Pep Hamilton loves so much.
If they want to run the ball against the Panthers, however, they will have to slow down defensive tackle Kawann Short, who has come on this season as one of the best interior defenders in the league.
Short is currently ranked first overall in Pro Football Focus' defensive tackle grades due to his prowess both against the run and in pass rush. The job to corral him will likely go to left guard Jack Mewhort and center Jonotthan Harrison, as starting center Khaled Holmes has missed practice and will likely miss Monday's game, as reported by Mike Wells of ESPN.com.
If Short runs wild, both in stuffing runs and harassing Luck in the backfield, the Colts offense will look listless.
Jerrell Freeman vs. Cam Newton
3 of 5
How does one stop Cam Newton?
Despite a supporting cast as bad as it has ever been in Carolina, the fifth-year quarterback continues to make plays. His passing isn't the prettiest, but he has the Panthers as the ninth-most efficient offense in the league, per Football Outsiders' DVOA.
The biggest reason for that? His rushing.
The Panthers are just 24th in DVOA in passing but first overall in rushing, and it's not just because of Jonathan Stewart. Newton has Football Outsiders' top marks in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) in rushing for quarterbacks this season, even more (98) than all but six running backs in the league have produced.
To combat such a dual-threat weapon, the Colts will likely employ a spy on Newton for much of the game as they have against mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick in the past.
This could either be a linebacker like Jerrell Freeman or a safety like Dwight Lowery, but because of Newton's tendency to run scripted quarterback draws and read-option plays, Freeman will likely play in the biggest role in containing Newton.
Freeman has struggled at times this season, but he is coming off of a strong game against the Saints in which he had 12 official tackles and received a positive-5.1 grade from Pro Football Focus, the highest grade of his career. But Freeman's problem has always been his inconsistency, something the Colts cannot afford against Newton on Monday night.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Dwight Lowery vs. Greg Olsen
4 of 5
While Jerrell Freeman is busy keeping an eye on Cam Newton, safety Dwight Lowery will likely draw the difficult assignment of tracking Greg Olsen.
The Panthers' top passing weapon also happens to be one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking fourth overall in total receiving yards for tight ends this season and tying for fifth with three touchdowns.
While the 30-year-old tight end doesn't block as well as he used to, he is still Newton's go-to weapon in the passing game, and for good reason.
Unfortunately for Indianapolis, the Colts are still terrible at covering tight ends. The team has improved its defense against running backs in the passing game this season, but it ranks 23rd in DVOA against tight ends, per Football Outsiders.
With rookie Clayton Geathers and starter Mike Adams returning to bolster the safety corps this week, Lowery won't get the full load of tracking Olsen, especially on third downs if Geathers returns to his role as a nickel linebacker. Still, as the starting strong safety, expect Lowery to get a big dose of Olsen, and if he can keep him contained, the Carolina offense gets much less intimidating.
Ron Rivera vs. Chuck Pagano
5 of 5
Outside of Andrew Luck, the most important figure for Indianapolis is head coach Chuck Pagano.
The Colts have been woefully coached to start the season, coming out flat in numerous games and being outcoached at halftime adjustments at every turn.
Pagano's job is in jeopardy, and he needs to get an upset at some point in the next two weeks to ensure he keeps his job past the bye week.
On the other sideline is Ron Rivera, a once much-maligned coach who has revitalized his image in Carolina over the last few years. Both he and Pagano have evolved positively in terms of aggressiveness, an area where coaches regularly fail in the NFL.
In this game, it will more likely come down to pregame and halftime preparation than it will a crucial fourth-down call. The Colts desperately need an advantage from coaching in order to stick with this undefeated Panthers squad on the road. If Pagano can do that, he may just save his job for the time being.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
