Dolphins vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for Miami?
The Miami Dolphins (3-3) have a chance to show that their two-game winning streak isn't a fluke as they travel to Foxborough to take on the undefeated New England Patriots (6-0).
Two weeks ago, this game seemed like a mismatch on paper, as the Dolphins were reeling on both sides of the ball and struggling to get anything going. Then the Dan Campbell era started, and all of a sudden it feels like the Dolphins have a shot against the Patriots.
How good of a shot do the Dolphins have? It will depend on their game plan for Thursday night. Miami must know that head coach Bill Belichick will have the Patriots ready, the question is will the Dolphins be ready? I am more confident of that now than I was a few weeks ago.
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Here's a look at the game plan.
Offensive Game Plan
The No. 1 reason for the Dolphins' offensive success over the last two weeks has been their use of the run game to set up the pass game.
In the last two games, Lamar Miller has run for an average of 144 yards on 16.5 attempts per game. The physicality of the offensive line (a major improvement during the Campbell era) is one part of why the Dolphins have been so successful, but another reason has been the fact that Miller is just that good.
The Patriots know that and will game-plan for Miller, but that doesn't mean the Dolphins should run the ball less, because that's New England's biggest weakness on defense.
The Patriots have allowed an average of 110.3 yards per game on the ground this season. That's a problem for most defenses, but for the Patriots, this weakness is a mild annoyance. Such is life when Tom Brady is your quarterback and you can put teams in a hole early and force them to abandon the run quickly.
Miami can't afford to let that happen to them. They will have to be assertive with the run game early and often.
As for the passing offense, they can't rely on just the short-pass game, as the box will be clogged up by Patriots defenders in time. That was the issue for the offense a few weeks ago.
Ryan Tannehill is going to have to go deep at least once to either Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker. Just making sure that the threat is there will be enough to keep the Pats defense honest, which is what the Dolphins will need in order to not only remain competitive with the Patriots, but also their accentuate their main offensive strength.
Defensive Game Plan
New England has the No. 2 passing attack in the NFL, and the Dolphins defense isn't well-equipped to handle such an aerial assault.
The front seven is well-equipped to handle the Pats' passing attack, and it has in the past. Some of Cameron Wake's best games with the Dolphins have come against the Patriots.
However, the Dolphins will have to apply pressure early and often to Tom Brady and make sure he's not able to comfortably let go of the ball, for behind the front seven, his weapons can easily pick apart the secondary.
One player who should be kept in check is obvious: tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk should have at least two players on him. The combination of players that would work best would be safety Reshad Jones and linebacker Jelani Jenkins, but regardless of who gets that assignment, it's better to have two men on him and have another receiver open than it would be to see Gronk dominate a corner or linebacker one-on-one.
New England's rushing attack isn't very strong, ranking 31st in the NFL. The Patriots will still attempt to run the ball in order to keep the Dolphins defense on the field and tire them out using LeGarrette Blount, who has killed the Dolphins defense in the past.
Overall, the best defense against New England is keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands, which brings it back to Miami's offense. They must play a ball-control type offense and score early and often.
Key Players and Matchups
Games like Thursday's are why the Dolphins signed defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.
Suh has only played New England twice, and both times the Patriots have had an answer for him. It's a small sample size, though, and while New England's offensive line remains good, they are no longer the same force they were in their past meetings with Suh.
Cameron Wake traditionally does well against the Patriots, and if he's freed up the way he has been in the last two games, it will be a long night for Brady. He'll be matched up with Sebastian Vollmer, a matchup that should be extremely familiar to Wake.
On offense, the key is running the ball early and often and winning at the line of scrimmage. New England's front four isn't as strong as they have been in years past. Can Miami's new-look offensive line answer the challenge the way they have the last two games? That will decide the game.
Prediction
Two weeks ago, we wondered how bad this game would be. It's a different feeling now, one that's more optimistic.
Can Miami beat New England? Yes, the game plan they've executed over the last two weeks is one tailor-made to beat the Patriots, and the Dolphins have the talent to do so. Keep this in mind: In the last two years, the Dolphins have had success against the Patriots, winning two of the last three matchups.
Will it happen this week? Not at all, but it won't be a laughing embarrassment.
I don't believe in moral victories, but what will happen Thursday will count as one. Miami will keep it close late thanks to a strong run game and pass rush before Brady inevitably breaks the team's heart. I originally said 33-24 Patriots, but that feels like too big of a deficit for Miami.
Instead, I see it ending as a one-score game.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Dolphins 30
Statistics provided by NFL.com.
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