Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?
In spite of the talent edge they've possessed, the New England Patriots have had their share of issues against the Miami Dolphins in recent seasons. Miami has won two of the past three meetings between the teams and with the Dolphins' sudden resurgence the past two weeks under interim coach Dan Campbell, the Fins suddenly look like a frisky dark-horse postseason contender.
The Patriots have been rolling along for six weeks now, but with injuries taking their toll on the roster's depth, there's certainly no room for complacency on a short week. Coming off a physical contest against the New York Jets on Sunday, New England's top priority in this game might simply be to remain healthy headed into the 10-day mini bye they'll receive afterward.
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Of course, a win would make that break significantly sweeter, while also allowing the Pats to keep pace with fellow AFC unbeatens Cincinnati and Denver. Dissecting the Pats' potential game plan on Thursday, let's take a look at the players and matchups which should determine the contest's outcome.
Offensive Game Plan
New England's offensive game plans this year have often started and ended with the right arm of Tom Brady. In terms of play percentage, the Patriots pass more than any team besides the Detroit Lions, but the wretched 1-6 Lions have often done so out of necessity when trailing in the game. Looking only at the first half, when teams aren't compelled to run or pass based on game situation, the Patriots have thrown the ball a whopping 73.8 percent of the time, easily the highest rate in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference.
However, this is a week when the Pats don't necessarily need Brady to save the day. Like everything else about the Dolphins, Miami's run defense has improved under Campbell. This makes sense, considering that the Fins inked Ndamukong Suh in the offseason primarily to bolster a run defense that had collapsed down the stretch in 2014, allowing 4.7 yards per rush over its final seven games, 27th in the league.
Nevertheless, Miami has seen mixed results thus far, ranking 19th against the run by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Dolphins' problem has been particularly acute on long runs; FO ranks Miami's defense 22nd in second-level yards, which are denoted as yards earned five to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are indeed allowing an average of 3.7 runs per game which go for 10 or more yards, 26th in the league.
Thus, it would seem likely that we'll see LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis as more prominent focal points in this game, especially with Lewis resting against the Jets and Blount receiving just three carries. While Miami's defensive line personnel is formidable, its linebackers have proved to be subpar at shedding down blocks to make tackles. So whenever Lewis or Blount escape the first level of defense, a big play could be waiting downfield.
When the Patriots do turn to the air, expect to see Julian Edelman snap his mini two-game slump. Edelman has been plagued by a case of the drops recently, and after recording at least 85 receiving yards in each of New England's first four games, he's had just 54 and 50 the past two weeks. However, going against Dolphins' top cornerback Brent Grimes might be the remedy Edelman needs to get back on track.
This is not necessarily an excoriation of Grimes, long an underrated man coverage corner due to his relentless physicality. Grimes was rather impressive in shutting down DeAndre Hopkins last week and has actually played rather well after a subpar 2014 season. Given Miami's scheme and lack of cornerback depth, it's a strong bet we'll see lots of Grimes versus Edelman on Thursday.
But there's a reason Edelman has averaged seven catches and 82.3 receiving yards per game against Miami over the past two seasons. Grimes plays like a big cornerback, but for someone of his diminutive stature (5'10", 185 lbs.), he has some surprising issues with smaller, quicker receivers. That showed up in last season's Week 15 meeting between the Pats and Dolphins.
As they often did, the Patriots isolated Edelman on Grimes. Though Grimes played off coverage, Edelman ate up his cushion rather quickly, not allowing the corner to change direction when he stemmed his route to the corner. And if Edelman and Grimes are breaking at the same point, it's an easy win for Minitron to create separation.
But in order for Edelman and Rob Gronkowski to win favorable matchups against Miami's shoddy secondary, the pass protection needs to hold up against a unit that has often given Tom Brady problems. Cameron Wake and Suh were the underperforming faces of Miami's languid opening month, but as the Dolphins have surged, the two former All-Pros have played up to their reputations as franchise cornerstones.
The duo is unusual in that both typically line up on the strong side of the defense (which corresponds to the offense's right side), whereas most defenses place their top pass-rushers on the weak side (offensive left side). Consequently, the onus will fall on Cameron Fleming, Tre' Jackson and David Andrews (who will likely provide Jackson with double-team support on Suh) to fend off the Wake-Suh tandem.
Brady's release and the nature of New England's passing scheme will mitigate some of that pressure, but as the past three opponents have done, expect Miami to introduce some sort of schematic wrinkle in an attempt to thwart the Patriots' passing rhythm. The Cowboys, Colts and Jets experienced sporadic success with their changeups, but even if Miami only fools the Pats offense for a short period of time, it has the game-changing duo necessary to fully maximize the profit.
Defensive Game Plan
Just as they did last week, the Patriots will likely prioritize the opposing offense's running game in their game plan construction. An apparent hamstring injury probably hobbled Chris Ivory on Sunday, but that doesn't diminish New England's highly impressive effort against the Jets' ground game, limiting New York's running backs to a woeful 2.5 yards per carry.
As they did last week, the Patriots will face a running back who is on fire. After being illogically underutilized during the final days of the Joe Philbin era, Lamar Miller has exploded with an increased workload. Against the Houston Texans on Sunday, Miller posted arguably the most impressive performance of any running back this season, tallying 236 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in the first half alone.
Resting the final 30 minutes of that blowout should ensure that Miller enters the short week relatively fresh. He presents an entirely opposite challenge to what the Pats faced last week in the bruising Ivory, as Miller wins with impressive stop-and-start agility and underrated vision:
A relatively limited back in terms of downhill physicality, Miller's weaknesses are hidden in Miami's spread-based offense, which utilizes lots of inside and outside zone-running schemes. Given that the Dolphins usually face nickel defenses in their base "11" personnel formations (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE), Miller also doesn't need to worry about as many big bodies in the box, which is another advantage Bill Lazor's scheme supplies.
New England does have a linebacker in Jamie Collins who is uniquely capable of knifing through gaps and chasing down even the quickest running backs, but the defensive backs clearly need a strong game in their run fits and tackling. Miami also utilizes Miller on screens in the passing game, so even if the Patriots contain him on rushing attempts, pursuit will be the operative word when it comes to containing the explosive fourth-year back.
Miami's offense is built upon yards after the catch, and like Miller, Jarvis Landry is a playmaker who simply needs the ball and a little space with which to operate. The second-year slot receiver seems to break ankles every week, and his criss-crossing 50-yard touchdown on Sunday was an illustration of his jaw-dropping change-of-direction ability:
".@God_Son80 doesn't want 13-yard grab. He wants 50-yard TD. And he'll dance on your defense to get it. #HOUvsMIA https://t.co/jZjwrzDvRh
— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2015"
Landry isn't a true No. 1 receiver because of his inability to win vertically or outside the numbers, but those limitations are minimized in Miami's quick-passing game, which typically provides defined reads for Ryan Tannehill. Therefore, Landry serves as the fulcrum of Miami's passing game, having garnered a team-high 56 targets—18 more than the next-highest target total on the Dolphins.
With this in mind, the Pats might want to alter their coverage assignments from last week, which saw Malcolm Butler struggle in the slot against Eric Decker. Landry and Decker are very different receivers, but Logan Ryan's superior agility would seemingly represent a better matchup against Miami's top target. Since ascending to a starting role the past two weeks, Ryan has played outside corner, typically receiving safety help from either Devin McCourty or Duron Harmon on the majority of plays.
However, he's also played in the slot this year on 49.3 percent of his coverage snaps, per Pro Football Focus, the highest mark on the Patriots. Ryan profiled as more of a slot corner on this year's roster when Tarell Brown and Bradley Fletcher were still around, but injuries have changed that plan more than anything about Ryan's actual game. Given the unsteadiness of Rishard Matthews and Kenny Stills, Miami's perimeter wide receivers, Ryan looks like a better fit inside.
No matter how the Pats game-plan to stop Miller and Landry, the pass rush needs to do a better job of harassing Ryan Tannehill than they did against Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday. From a Patriots perspective, the juiciest matchups should be on the interior, where Miami's guards have floundered in pass protection:
The rookie Jamil Douglas is out of the starting lineup, replaced by Billy Turner over the past two weeks. Of course, Turner himself hasn't been much of an upgrade, conceding a pair of sacks last week against the Texans. Not having Jabaal Sheard due to an ankle injury robs the Patriots of their top interior rusher, but two weeks after his best showing of the year against Indianapolis, Dominique Easley should have another opportunity to steal the spotlight as the 3-technique.
Though Tannehill has cut his sack rate this season, his 6.8 percent rate still ranks just 24th among qualified quarterbacks, per Pro-Football-Reference. A lack of pressure was a big factor in New York extending so many drives last weekend, but the Pats' front seven should have an opportunity to make more big plays in the backfield against the Dolphins.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Rob Ninkovich: The 31-year-old edge defender has had a relatively quiet season, with just a single sack to his credit so far, but Ninkovich had his most disruptive showing of the season against the Jets. Doing his best J.J. Watt impression, Ninkovich batted down four Ryan Fitzpatrick passes and nearly intercepted another pass near the goal line.
Ninkovich has a decent pass-rushing matchup against second-year right tackle Ja'Wuan James, but his most important assignment will be on Miller. Ninkovich will be responsible for setting the edge consistently and spilling Miller back inside toward his help, and he might also pick up Miller out of the backfield on a few pass routes. With Sheard hurt, this shapes up as the type of game where Ninkovich could go wire-to-wire.
LeGarrette Blount: Blount didn't get a real shot at Miami last season, as he was a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for the Week 1 matchup and played second fiddle to Jonas Gray in the Week 15 rematch. Though Dion Lewis again figures to see the majority of the snaps if he returns, Blount should reassume his roughly 40 percent split of the backfield snaps this week.
After a miserable three-carry, minus-3 yard performance against the Jets in Week 7, Blount should at least be fresh for the quick turnaround. According to Football Outsiders' defensive line metrics, Miami has also struggled defending runs up the middle, ranking 23rd against carries between the center and guard (i.e., the A gaps). Look for power runs to carve out a role in this week's offensive game plan.
Patrick Chung: We haven't mentioned tight end Jordan Cameron yet, mostly because Miami's usage of Cameron has been wildly inconsistent. Though he ranks second on the team with 38 targets, he's also yet to catch more than four passes in a single game and hasn't cracked 30 receiving yards since Week 2.
Nevertheless, Cameron remains a red-zone presence for the Dolphins, and with his ability to split out wide away from the core of the formation, someone like Patrick Chung could have slot duties on the tight end. Chung has been solid in pass coverage again in 2015, flashing last week with an impressive pass breakup of Jeff Cumberland in the end zone. If the Pats scheme to take away Landry, that might place additional pressure on someone like Chung to win this matchup.
Tre' Jackson: We alluded to the challenge the right side of New England's offensive line will face, and fourth-round rookie Jackson is perhaps the biggest unknown. Jackson fared well against Sheldon Richardson on all three downs, playing every offensive snap for the first time this season, but Suh is an even bigger step up in performance.
It'll be interesting to see if the Patriots place their faith in Jackson to play the entire game again, or whether they rotate Ryan Wendell in at right guard. Although Wendell only played one offensive snap against the Jets in his first game of the season, his experience and reliability might be important in providing the rookie a breather against one of the league's true defensive game-changers.
Prediction
The Pats have been automatic on Thursday nights during the Brady-Belichick era. Since 2001, the Patriots are 8-1 on Thursday night games, with their only loss coming in 2008 against the Jets, a dramatic overtime contest that Matt Cassel started. Thus, Brady himself has never lost on Thursday nights, a testament to the preparation advantage New England typically enjoys.
Miami presents a different challenge in that the Dolphins are a difficult team to read because of the recent coaching change. While Campbell has certainly not installed a new scheme overnight, he has redistributed touches toward Miami's most talented players and tapped into an intensity that Philbin could never reach. At the very least, the Fins won't roll over for the duration of the 60-minute contest.
Nevertheless, Gillette Stadium has been a house of horrors for Miami during the Tannehill era, as the Dolphins have lost their last three games at Foxborough by an average of 22 points per game, never staying within single digits. In each game, the Dolphins have managed to hang around for a quarter or two, only to see the wheels fall off amid a second-half blitzkrieg from the Patriots.
Maybe New England doesn't overwhelm Miami this time around, but it's hard not to give the Pats the nod. So while the Dolphins enter searching for a legitimizing season-changing victory, expect the Patriots to execute with a business-as-usual mentality.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Dolphins 22
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