Vikings vs. Lions: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
After claiming victory No. 3 at home last time out, the Minnesota Vikings will look to earn victory No. 1 on the road against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
Despite owning an abysmal 1-5 record through six games this season, Detroit remains a team loaded with talent and players capable of creating mismatches on both sides of the ball. Seeing that Minnesota has already defeated the Lions once this seasons and plays them twice per year as a divisional opponent, the Vikings should be well prepared.
The Lions are a more dangerous team than their win-loss record advertises, having been on the short end of multiple close matchups throughout the season. In addition, Detroit's loss count does not afford them any more mistakes this season, so Minnesota must be prepared to go to war with a desperate team.
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While Minnesota may be a different team than it was Week 2, when this pair of NFC North rivals faced off the first time this season, many of the game-planning principles remain the same. The Vikings, as per usual, will look to run the ball on offense and hit the quarterback on defense; it really is as simple as that for Mike Zimmer's club.
Every team presents different strengths and weaknesses to account for, however, and Detroit is no different. Divisional wins are always earned, and the Vikings will need to do a great job of exploiting the Lions' weak spots if they are to escape Ford Field with victory No. 4 on the year.
Offensive Game Plan
All NFL teams strive to maintain an offensive identity, and the Vikings have attacked defenses in a similar fashion for nine seasons now. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is improving as a passer—though it may not always appear that way—but this team still belongs to Adrian Peterson.
Although Minnesota is defined as a run-first team, it is having a bit of trouble adjusting to an offensive game plan that includes an aerial attack. Simply put, the Vikings' optimum passing formations do not coincide with the alignments Peterson works best out of.
Bridgewater has shown a capacity to complete passes from under center, but he appears to be more comfortable in the shotgun. Conversely, Peterson does his best work in singleback and I-formations while struggling with handoffs out of the shotgun.
Against the Chiefs in Week 6, Peterson ran the ball five times out of the shotgun, which amounted to a net total of negative-10 rushing yards with three different attempts going for a loss of yardage. However, if the Vikings want to pass the ball out of this formation, they need to give Peterson handoffs as well in order to keep the defense honest.
In addition to being more consistent rushing out of the shotgun, Minnesota's offensive linemen must block better, but this is of course much easier said than done.
The above screen shot is just one example of Peterson's offensive line hanging him out to dry. Left guard Brandon Fusco (No. 63) has been one of Minnesota's best blockers in recent years, but he missed an assignment here. Whether it was a pre-snap miscommunication or just a failed read, Fusco was caught attempting to block a linebacker with poor leverage.
Peterson was going to attempt a counter rush here—and a successful block would have made for a sizable gain—but the hole closes too quickly because of the missed assignment. Kansas City was able to swarm Peterson near the line of scrimmage for essentially no gain on the play.
There were plenty of rush attempts that ended this way against the Chiefs, as Minnesota's offensive line simply did not do a very good job of opening up lanes for Peterson. Even his 23-yard rush early in the third quarter could have been prevented had rookie cornerback Marcus Peters taken a better angle to the ball.
With all this said, Detroit does not boast the same level of talent in its front seven Kansas City does, making this a much easier run-blocking matchup for Minnesota's offensive line. Still, the Vikings offensive line cannot play as sloppily as it did in Week 6 and expect Peterson to run the ball successfully on a consistent basis.
As long as Peterson is around, the Vikings will be a run-first team, but a Bridgewater-led aerial attack should be able to have more success against the Lions this time around.
It remains unclear whether Minnesota will utilize Stefon Diggs in a starting role on Sunday with Charles Johnson expected to return from injury, but it is hard to imagine the Vikings keeping the rookie wide receiver on the sidelines after back-to-back successful games.
Assuming Diggs is the guy playing opposite of Mike Wallace, Detroit will be forced to account for the young playmaker. Cornerback Darius Slay, who spent most of Week 2 on Wallace, cannot cover both Vikings receivers. His partner on defense, veteran Rashean Mathis, isn't nearly the cornerback he once was, which should give Minnesota an advantage on at least one side of the field.
Expect Minnesota to stay true to its roots and run the ball more effectively in Week 7, but offensive coordinator Norv Turner may feel compelled to open up the passing playbook a bit with multiple playmaking receivers at his disposal this time around.
Defensive Game Plan
Zimmer has harped on it all season long: His defensive goal is to hit the quarterback. The Vikings defense should have plenty of opportunities to make this happen against the Lions, as Matthew Stafford drops back to pass as frequently as any signal-caller in the NFL.
According to Pro Football Focus, Stafford has recorded 255 dropbacks so far this season, which is tied for fourth alongside the Baltimore Ravens' Joe Flacco among quarterbacks. Furthermore, Lions running backs have rushed the ball a grand total of 100 times this season.
Simply, Detroit likes to throw the football, as it has had its quarterback drop back to pass roughly 2.5 times per rush attempt in 2015.
Given the Lions' lack of a stable and consistent ground game, as well as one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, this makes quite a bit of sense. Based on how Minnesota defended Detroit in Week 2, it seems likely Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn will be in charge of wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
The Vikings should feel comfortable with these matchups, as both Rhodes and Munnerlyn were successful in coverage against this pairing of receivers despite there being a high volume of targets to both.
Referring back to Pro Football Focus, Rhodes allowed Johnson to catch seven of 13 targets for 62 yards and a (questionable) touchdown. Munnerlyn, on the other hand, allowed Tate to catch just two of four balls thrown in his direction for a total of 28 yards. Allowing 90 yards and a touchdown on 17 total targets to Detroit's two greatest offensive weapons is something the Vikings should take any day.
However, the Lions do have a bit of a secret weapon in running back Theo Riddick. Back in Week 2, the Vikings did not do a good job covering underneath routes, allowing large chunks of yardage to Riddick, Tate and rookie Ameer Abdullah because of poor coverage by its linebacking group.
Riddick did not control the game by any means, but Detroit was able to move the chains on more than one occasion with short completions to him out of the backfield. In the above instance, Riddick drew one-on-one coverage from linebacker Anthony Barr.
As the the arrows note, Riddick's separation move caught Barr out of position, as his shoulders are facing the opposite direction of the Detroit running back's. His weight is also shifted in the wrong direction, which can be seen by where his feet and hips are in comparison to the direction Riddick is going.
Stafford ultimately completed this pass for an 11-yard gain, and it could have been more had Riddick caught the pass cleanly. Johnson and Tate remain the major concerns on Sunday, but given the number of passes Stafford is likely to throw, Minnesota should be better prepared to handle Riddick out of the backfield or risk giving up a few extra first downs.
Above all, Minnesota is well prepared to handle Detroit's offensive style. The Lions have dropped back to pass roughly 70 percent of the time this season, which plays right into the teeth of the Vikings defense. Safety Harrison Smith, who had an interception taken away from him in Week 2, will be a major factor as usual given his ability to play excellent defensively in zone coverage.
Expect plenty of blitz packages from the Vikings on Sunday, as Zimmer will in all likelihood look to take advantage of a very average Lions offensive line with his excess of pass-rushing talent.
Key Players
Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, Minnesota
Naming Diggs as a "key player" for the Vikings comes with some hesitancy, as his usage and overall role in Minnesota's offense has yet to be firmly established. It goes without saying Peterson will be getting the ball plenty, which makes Diggs—who has been key in each of the Vikings' past two games—a bit of an X-factor for Minnesota.
The fifth-round rookie has shown an outstanding route tree and very impressive separation skills in his first two games at the NFL level. Bridgewater has leaned on him and had more consistent success with Diggs than Wallace, Johnson, Kyle Rudolph or Jarius Wright, making him integral to what the Vikings want to do through the air.
Assuming Peterson puts together a better effort on Sunday than he did against the Chiefs and Diggs can continue to shine in the ways he has proved capable of doing, the Vikings should be in good position to gain a season sweep over the Lions.
Theo Riddick, Running Back, Detroit
Simply put, everyone knows Johnson and Tate are going to see their fair share of targets. With Detroit becoming more one-dimensional on offense in recent weeks, Riddick has become a bit of a sleeper for the Lions.
The former Notre Dame running back has seen 19 targets over the past two weeks, totaling 13 catches, 103 receiving yards and one touchdown out of the backfield. With Minnesota native Zach Zenner out, Joique Bell still lacking consistency and Abdullah not being featured as much as maybe he should be, Riddick should continue to play an X-factor role for the Lions on Sunday.
Eric Kendricks, Linebacker, Minnesota
Eric Kendricks has shone since assuming a starting role in the Vikings defense, and his coverage skills will be put to the test in Detroit.
Likely tasked with covering hulking tight end Eric Ebron and Riddick, the Vikings will need a strong performance from Kendricks to keep the Detroit offense from sustaining long drives. The rookie linebacker currently leads the Vikings in tackles, and he should have a number of opportunities to add to his total of 26 on Sunday.
Glover Quin, Safety, Detroit
With Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley both playing their football elsewhere this season, there may not be a more important member of the Lions defense than safety Glover Quin. Defensive end Ziggy Ansah and Slay play important roles, but Quin's ability to change the game—in a similar fashion to how Smith does for the Vikings—is very key to this team's success.
Quin has shown an ability to read the eyes of Bridgewater in the past, and he will aim for career interception No. 3 against the Vikings' young signal-caller in Week 7.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Lions 16
The Vikings did an excellent job of executing their game plan in Week 2 and will need to do an even better job if they hope to leave Ford Field with road win No. 1 on the season.
Minnesota owns a 2-8 record on the road during the Zimmer era, which needs to improve if the team expects to reach the postseason. Given the talent disparity and overall trends of these two teams, this is a very winnable game for the Vikings and should be seen as a must-win if reaching the playoffs is the goal.
Detroit is a team that has not only not played very good football in 2015 but also matches up very well with Minnesota in terms of what the team tries to do both on offense and defense.
The Lions, in the absence of Suh and Fairley, are designed in a way that benefits them better against the pass on defense, which bodes well for the Vikings' run-first offensive game plan. Furthermore, the Vikings defense has its talent dispersed in a way that gives one-dimensional passing attacks difficulty sustaining multiple long drives.
This game probably will be closer than it should be, but the home-field advantage element of this game is not enough of a factor to give the Lions an advantage. Minnesota should enjoy success rushing the ball and rushing the passer, leading to a solid divisional win and victory No. 4 on the season.
All statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings news, statistics and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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