Texans vs. Dolphins: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

The sky is blue, water is wet, and protecting the quarterback is crucial to the success or failure of an NFL offense.

Listing pass protection as a key to a game is kind of like saying a team needs to score more points, but that game within the game this week will determine the outcome.

Despite dealing with multiple injuries all season long—center Ben Jones is their only lineman to start at the same position in each game so far—and attempting more passes than any other team in the league, the Houston Texans offensive line has actually held up pretty well in pass protection this year.

Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer rank second and 11th, respectively, in sack percentage, and the Texans as a team rank 12th in sacks allowed with 10 through six games. Pro Football Focus has the Texans ranked as the fifth-best team in their pass block rating.

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Hoyer and Mallett also rank first and fifth in lowest percentage of dropbacks under pressure, which points to the marriage between the quarterback getting rid of the ball quickly and the perceived quality of the pass protection.

That early success will be tested this week against the Miami Dolphins, whom Pro Football Focus has ranked as the third-best in its pass rush rating.

The other side of Hoyer not facing pressure very often this year is that his completion percentage when he does face pressure ranks 28th-best in the league at 54.2 percent. Houston has done a solid job of protecting the quarterback, but their linemen will need some help this week.

With a 2-3 record, Miami obviously hasn't done many things well, but players like Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh can definitely apply pressure.

Wake had four sacks last week during the Dolphins' blowout victory over Tennessee, while Pro Football Focus has Suh ranked as the fourth-best pass-rusher among defensive tackles. Despite having those two players on the roster, the Dolphins still surprisingly are tied for last in the league in team sacks with seven.

That stat may cause some fans to overlook their pass rush, but you could also take that another way.

Wake and Suh are clearly their biggest threats by a wide margin, so if the Texans focus the protection plan around stopping them, they could completely shut down Miami's pass rush and give Hoyer all the time he needs.

With that idea in mind, the Texans should double-team Suh in the interior and also use a tight end or running back to get a quick chip block on Wake as they leave the backfield into a pass pattern.

One of the tougher juggling acts this week will be whether or not to keep Arian Foster in for pass protection or to send him on routes as a receiver.

Foster is one of the better pass protectors in the league at running back, but he's also a dangerous receiving threat. He'll need to play both roles this week but should be used as a receiver for the majority with either a tight end being kept in to help on Wake or Foster getting in a chip block.

Kill the head, and the body will die. Stop Suh and Wake, and the Dolphins pass rush will fall apart.

Defensive Game Plan

The Dolphins have several talented wide receivers like Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews capable of making big plays, but the Texans should get up on the line of scrimmage and challenge the Miami receivers in press coverage.

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Most fans are aware Ryan Tannehill has struggled this season, but they might not know how poor he's thrown the ball on deep passes.

On passes of 20 yards or deeper, Tannehill has an accuracy rating—which factors in dropped passes—of just 33.3 percent.

Landry leads the Dolphins in receptions with 31 but ranks 91st in the league in yards per reception; one spot behind Andre Johnson.

The Texans should press their receivers, take away the quick-timing, short throws and challenge Tannehill to beat them deep.

Not only would that strategy make Tannehill play into his weakness, but taking away the quick throws would also force him to hold the ball a little longer and give more time for the pass rush to get home.

Key Players and Matchups

Slow Down Lamar Miller

The fourth-year running back hasn't been a dynamic force this season but did bust out for 113 yards on nearly six yards per carry and one touchdown last week.

Houston only allowed 46 yards to the Jaguars running backs last week and will need a similar effort against Miami. Holding Miller to 46 yards or less is unrealistic, but they can't allow him to run the ball effectively with a per-carry average over 4.5 yards.

More than the yards Miller would be picking up, running the ball well would obviously set up the play-action passing game for the Dolphins as well.

Tannehill's completion percentage is 6.1 percent higher and his quarterback rating is nearly 17 points better on play-action passes compared to passes without a play-action fake. That difference in completion percentage is the 10th-largest in the league.

Can Anyone Stop DeAndre Hopkins?

DeAndre Hopkins currently leads the NFL in targets, receptions, receiving yards and is in a tie for second in receiving touchdowns.

Leaving any corner in one-on-one, single coverage on Hopkins would be a mistake with the way he's playing right now, but Brent Grimes will probably get the task of being his primary defender.

Grimes currently ranks 10th in opponent's quarterback rating on passes thrown into his coverage at 56.1 and has intercepted two passes while not yet allowing a touchdown pass against him.

Hopkins will still get his numbers even against a corner like Grimes, but going over 145 yards for the fourth game in a row seems unlikely.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Texans 20

The Texans have never lost to the Dolphins, but that has to change at some point, right? Houston won't go undefeated against Miami forever, we have to assume.

This game should be close, and a Texans win wouldn't be an upset, but the Dolphins roster is a little deeper and has a few more playmakers. Plus, they're at home, so that tilts the advantage in their favor a little bit.

The Texans will have the two best players on the field with Hopkins and J.J. Watt, but the depth after that on both sides of the ball is better for the Dolphins. If the Texans play well, they can certainly beat the Dolphins, but I'll take Suh, Wake and Grimes to make a few key plays to win the game.