New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts (3-3) will try to rebound from a tough loss and end a two-game series skid against the New Orleans Saints (2-4) when they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. The Colts fell to the unbeaten New England Patriots 34-27 in last week’s Sunday night matchup but covered the spread as 8.5-point home underdogs. Indy is 15-4 straight up and 14-5 against the spread in its last 19 games after a loss.

Point spread: The Colts opened as four-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.4-22.2 Colts

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints have won two of their last three games following an 0-3 start, with quarterback Drew Brees finally finding his replacement for tight end Jimmy Graham in Benjamin Watson, who is coming off a career-best performance with 127 yards on 10 catches. Brees looked lost the first few weeks while also suffering from a shoulder injury, but Watson’s presence in the passing game has helped turn things around.

New Orleans also got the chance to get extra rest and improve upon some of the team’s weaknesses following a 31-21 upset of the previously unbeaten Atlanta Falcons in the Week 6 Thursday night game. Indianapolis continued to show plenty of flaws against the Patriots on Sunday night, and the Saints should be able to exploit them.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts got quarterback Andrew Luck back in the lineup versus New England after he missed the previous two games with a shoulder injury of his own, and he should be less rusty against the Saints. Luck was not terrible in defeat, but he was a little off on some of his throws and will get a chance to rebound facing a New Orleans defense that just gave up a lot of passing yards to Atlanta’s Matt Ryan.

Indy shouldn't be too worried about the Saints offense, as Brees has become dependent on the short passing game due to his shoulder issue. He has rarely looked downfield and completed a big play this season, instead opting to move the ball with quick strikes to his receivers, counting on them to make something happen.

Smart pick

New Orleans knocked off an overrated Falcons team and now must play an underrated squad in the Colts, who were just embarrassed at home on national television. Indy head coach Chuck Pagano has had to answer questions about the botched fake punt against the Pats all week and will want to make people forget it with a big win. With Luck leading the way, look for the Colts to win by at least a touchdown to get the cover.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in 10 of the Colts' last 13 games.
• The Colts are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games in October.
• The Colts are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.