Patriots vs. Colts: What's the Game Plan for New England?
Over the past three years, there hasn't been any mystery to the New England Patriots game plan against the Indianapolis Colts. The Pats have physically pummeled one of their top AFC rivals four consecutive times, winning by an average margin of 29 points per game with a power running game that has averaged 219 rushing yards in that span.
Past results aren't necessarily indicative of future performance, of course, and this year's Patriots squad seems better equipped to sidestep the Colts' new-look front seven and attack Indy through the air. Of course, New England has largely been able to dictate whatever it wants to Indianapolis, partially because the defense has consistently forced turnovers from Andrew Luck, who has thrown a whopping 10 picks in four career games against the Pats.
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Whether they'll admit it publicly or not, New England would surely love nothing more than to take the air out of Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday night. Here's a look at the matchups and X-factors most crucial to deciding whether or not the Patriots will get their long-awaited revenge against their fellow AFC finalists.
Offensive Game Plan
It's tempting to suggest the old adage of, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." The Pats weren't a prolific rushing team last year—based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric, New England ranked 14th in rushing offense—but nevertheless ran for 423 yards and seven touchdowns in two games against Indy last season. With Dion Lewis running well and Colts-killer LeGarrette Blount still in the backfield, why wouldn't the Pats run back the same game plan that has worked so beautifully in the recent past?
Well, for one, the Patriots may not have the blocking personnel to execute the same game plan. Though the young interior offensive line has been a pleasant surprise, the tackles have struggled and might regress further with the season-ending biceps injury to left tackle Nate Solder. Marcus Cannon, Solder's likely blind-side replacement, plays with an extremely powerful base but might have issues with the Colts' smaller, yet quicker, defensive ends.
Most importantly, the Patriots utilized heavy doses of power personnel, notably giving extended snaps to fullback James Devlin and tackle Cameron Fleming in "jumbo" packages, featuring Fleming as a tackle-eligible sixth offensive lineman. In the regular season game at Indy last season, Devlin played a season-high 34 snaps, while Fleming played 38 out of the game's 77 offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
It's unclear if the Pats would feel comfortable going down that route again in 2015. Michael Williams, who started his career as a tackle before switching to tight end, has been a fixture in run blocking this year and could reasonably replicate the Fleming role. But Devlin is on injured reserve after fracturing his fibula during the preseason, while nominal H-back Michael Hoomanawanui has since been dealt to New Orleans.
And besides, the Patriots' rationale for attacking the Colts on the ground in the past has stemmed from Indy's roster construction. Dating back to the start of the Andrew Luck era in 2012, Indianapolis has ranked 32nd, 22nd and 19th in rushing defense DVOA. With mediocre front seven personnel, such as Ricky Jean-Francois and Josh Chapman holding down the trenches in recent seasons, the Colts haven't been equipped to put up much resistance to a well-executed power running game plan.
This year, the infusion of Stanford rookies Henry Anderson and David Parry, as well as the free-agent signing of veteran end Kendall Langford, has improved Indy to 12th in run defense DVOA. The Colts are conceding just 3.8 yards per carry, as the new starting defensive line has proven much more capable of two-gapping at the point of attack and keeping offensive linemen from down blocking to Indy's linebackers.
Notice how the linebackers have a free path to the ball-carrier in both screenshots above. In the second one, Anderson (circled in orange) impressively split a double-team attempt to force Arian Foster left into the waiting arms of D'Qwell Jackson (No. 52). It's these kinds of disruptive plays the Colts are making more consistently against the run—Indy currently leads the league with 38 run stuffs of zero or fewer yards, nearly halfway to their total of 80 during the entire 2014 season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Fortunately, the Patriots passing game has operated at an uber-efficient rate the whole year and is well-equipped to take advantage of Indianapolis' shaky secondary personnel. For all their improvements against the run, the Colts have regressed severely in pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defensive DVOA after finishing 10th in 2014.
Part of that certainly stems from injuries, which have forced obscure free agents such as Jalil Brown and Josh Thomas into borderline starting roles at times. The Colts will have their full assortment of defensive backs against New England, with Vontae Davis and Greg Toler returning from early-season injuries, but Indy's secondary personnel doesn't match up particularly well with either Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski.
How the Tennessee Titans attacked Indianapolis in Week 3 should be instructive for the Patriots. The Titans spread out the field and trusted Marcus Mariota to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball to his receivers, who were consistently able to out-leverage Indy's defensive backs:
Even though Mariota had a pair of critical fourth-quarter turnovers, which aided Indy's frantic comeback, the rookie generally played well in throwing for 367 yards and two touchdowns. Brady is obviously far more advanced at the line of scrimmage and inside the pocket than Mariota and should dissect Indy's defense if afforded similar protection and matchups.
Given that Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker combined for 14 catches and 163 yards that afternoon, Edelman and Gronkowski should experience big days working the middle of the field for New England. So as tempting as it might be for New England to try plowing over Indianapolis once again, turning to the air represents a better course of attack against the revamped Colts defense.
Defensive Game Plan
Indy's rushing offense isn't as static as it was during the catastrophic Trent Richardson era, but the Colts' rushing attack has been relatively inconsistent under Frank Gore. Although Gore has had a pair of strong games against Tennessee and Houston to pump up his season rushing stats, he's also fumbled twice near the goal line and been held under 3.9 yards per carry in three of five games this season.
New England's biggest concern is clearly through the air, as this figures to be a sub-package oriented game with the likes of Logan Ryan and Justin Coleman get heavy playing time. With a pair of excellent man-coverage corners in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the 2014 Patriots were well-equipped to counter Indy's three-receiver sets. The real key was their ability to eliminate T.Y. Hilton's vertical threat from consideration by bracketing slot corner Kyle Arrington with Devin McCourty over the top:
Those three corners are long gone, but the Pats could construct a similar game plan with McCourty and whoever plays the slot, likely Ryan, given Tarell Brown's apparently serious foot woes. Despite playing through a knee sprain the first few weeks of the year, Hilton has nevertheless remained Indy's most important receiver.
| T.Y. Hilton | 176 | 48 | 27.3% |
| Donte Moncrief | 166 | 37 | 22.3% |
| Andre Johnson | 128 | 27 | 21.1% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 56 | 17 | 30.4% |
| Coby Fleener | 126 | 21 | 16.7% |
| Frank Gore | 79 | 12 | 15.2% |
Of course, Indy will happily allow New England to commit its resources towards Hilton if the rest of the Patriots' defense breaks down from being stretched too thin. Indianapolis possesses a deep corps of wide receivers, with Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett all representing viable threats, but the bigger concern could be the Colts' tight ends.
Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen have had injury-plagued seasons thus far, combining for just 20 catches, 186 yards and two touchdowns on the season. However, at its core, the Pep Hamilton offense is a power-based one, which would preferably lean on "12" personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) over the three- and four-receiver sets Indianapolis has played this year. Indy's most recent game against Houston was the first time it had its full assortment of tight ends, and the Colts used two-tight end sets on more than half of their offensive plays that night.
Thus, an important X-factor in New England's defensive game plan is the ability of Patrick Chung and Jordan Richards to hold up in coverage against Indy's tight ends. The Pats have typically used McCourty to cover tight ends this year, as they did last week against Dallas' Jason Witten, but he might not be available if the aforementioned bracket-coverage plan on Hilton gets implemented.
So far, both have fared reasonably well, combining to allow nine catches on 18 targets for 69 yards, though two of those receptions went for touchdowns. Chung has retained his starting box safety role from last season, while Richards has come on the past two weeks to play significant snaps in "big nickel" sub packages featuring multiple safeties. Generally speaking, the Pats haven't used either in straight man coverage, preferring to have them play hook-curl or curl-flat intermediate zones in coverage:
New England's coverage might only matter so much if Luck has time in the pocket. Assuming the Colts' starting quarterback does return to the lineup this Sunday, pressure is on the Patriots' best, and perhaps only, viable alternative to creating the disruptive plays that they've managed to pull off in recent meetings. At the beginning of the season, the Bills and Jets were able to disrupt Luck and upset the Colts by hitting Indy with a steady dose of extra rushers, according to NFL.com's Gil Brandt.
This isn't new for Luck, whose biggest weakness remains his tendency to force the ball into tight windows, something that gets exacerbated when he's placed under pressure. The question is whether New England is willing to stray from its typical pressure philosophy; though Bill Belichick is often willing to send his linebackers on blitzes up the middle, he often prefers to send just four rushers in total.
Indy hasn't been a very balanced offense with Luck under center this year, passing the ball on slightly more than 66 percent of its plays through its first three games. Look for New England's defensive game plan to center around eliminating the deep threat while also speeding up Luck's clock inside the pocket by throwing a variety of pressure looks at him.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Chandler Jones
New England's best pass-rusher this year has been Jabaal Sheard, who leads the team with four sacks despite playing fewer snaps than either starting edge-rushers Jones or Rob Ninkovich. In fact, since his monster three-sack effort against Tyrod Taylor and the Bills in Week 2, Jones has recorded just five pressures in the last two games, per PFF's charting.
As mentioned in the defensive section, pressure is paramount to helping the Patriots secondary, which is likely overmatched against a Colts receiving corps at full strength. Sheard should provide his usual steady dose of pressures in a situational role, which could become a full-time role if the Pats are in sub packages in this game, but this particular opponent would represent a strong time for the fourth-year pro to break out of his mini pass-rushing funk.
Rob Gronkowski
We didn't talk much about Gronkowski in the previous section, as Indianapolis went out of its way last season to limit Gronk's damage. The Colts did succeed in keeping Gronkowski's targets down, as Brady threw his way just 13 times over those two games. However, Gronk still managed to haul in seven of those passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns, doing the bulk of his damage in the red zone.
This season, the Colts have been a perfectly average red zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 56.3 percent of trips so far, 16th in the league. However, Indy has yet to allow a tight end to reach the end zone against them. The Pats are as good a bet as any to break that trend, but will the Colts sell out to stop Gronkowski near the end zone and take their chances with the matchups elsewhere?
Justin Coleman
The undrafted rookie out of Tennessee has been one of New England's more underrated surprises so far, playing 68 defensive snaps since cracking the lineup in Week 3. With Brown possibly out for the foreseeable future, Coleman is likely entrenched as one of New England's top three cornerbacks at the moment.
This week should represent Coleman's toughest test so far, as Jacksonville and Dallas didn't really have the perimeter receivers to challenge him on the defensive right side. The 5'11" rookie will likely draw 6'3" Andre Johnson, so watch how he manages the size disadvantage against one of the league's savviest veterans.
Keshawn Martin
Volume probably won't be in the cards for Martin, but perhaps it should be. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts have been the worst defense in the league at defending No. 3, 4 and 5 wide receivers. Indeed, secondary options like Allen Hurns (11 catches, 116 yards) and Jaelen Strong (53 yards, 2 TDs) have gone off against Indianapolis and its tenuous secondary depth.
Martin has played a limited role in his first two games with the Patriots, but he's ostensibly developed a quick rapport with Brady, catching all five of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown thus far and supplanting Aaron Dobson on the depth chart. If Martin gets a look at Greg Toler outside, watch to see if Brady can exploit that matchup for a few key first downs throughout the game.
Prediction
I didn't predict a blowout in my game preview, but that's more due to the low probability of any game ending in a lopsided margin. The mainstream consensus is the Patriots are out for blood at Lucas Oil Stadium, and that a sputtering Colts squad doesn't have the manpower to stop a comeuppance nine months in the making.
That might be too simplistic of an assertion, but the Patriots are clearly operating at a higher level at the moment. The Colts have skated by with Matt Hasselbeck running a more conservative and controlled offense the past two games, but the Texans and Jaguars have also squandered golden opportunities with untimely turnovers and missed field goals. Indianapolis' past two victories might speak more to the incompetence of its AFC South competition more than anything else.
New England would surely love to rub salt in the Colts' wounds if provided the opportunity on Sunday night. Picking up a win and sustaining their current level of play is the real objective, though, and no matter what this week's narrative suggests, the Colts are simply another early-season checkpoint en route to bigger things for the Patriots.
Prediction: Patriots 36, Colts 26
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