Texans vs. Falcons: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

With or without Arian Foster on the field—he was listed as questionable at the time this article was written—the Houston Texans will have to run the ball well to win Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Saying a team has to run the ball to win is cliche, but sometimes the simple answer is the correct answer. Going to the air early and often isn't a bad idea if the passing game is a strength of your team or a weakness of your opponent's defense, but that doesn't apply for the Texans.

During the Texans' two losses, they rushed the ball for a combined 159 yards and lost the time-of-possession battle by a total of 15 minutes and 36 seconds. In their win against Tampa Bay, the Texans rushed for 186 yards and won time of possession by just over 12-and-a-half minutes.

Winning those two stats is obviously key to the Texans' success.

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Ryan Mallett has a big arm, but at this point in his career he's not the kind of quarterback you want attempting 58 passes like he did in the Texans' Week 2 loss to Carolina.

As they're currently built, the Texans need to run the ball to control the clock since they're not going to win many shootouts. They also need to run it effectively to set up the play-action pass and run it often to hopefully limit mistakes that lead to turnovers and points for the other team.

In a way, the Texans offense needs to be their defense this week.

The Texans defense has faced 43 total offensive possessions from their opponents this season.

The Texans have turned the ball over four times this year; their opponents have scored a touchdown after each one of those four turnovers.

Of the 60 points allowed by the Texans defense through three games, 28 of those points—nearly half—have come off their four turnovers

The 28 points on the four possessions that came off of turnovers mark seven points per possession—compared to just 32 points allowed on the 39 possessions that didn't follow a turnover—or 1.21 points per possession.

That stat deserves repeating: The Texans have allowed just 1.21 points per possession on opponent drives that didn't start after a turnover.

It's also important to remember that all four of their turnovers—three interceptions and one fumble—came from their quarterback.

So even if the running game isn't as successful as it was last week, the Texans must stick with the ground game to prevent game-killing mistakes and hopefully keep the Falcons' explosive offense off the field.

Defensive Game Plan

The Falcons have many weapons capable of making big plays, but I'd force them to use those other options instead of allowing Julio Jones to beat me.

Jones has been incredible this year and led the league after three weeks in both receptions and receiving yards. At his current pace, Jones will catch 181 passes for 2,346 yards, shattering both NFL single-season records.

That's not a prediction that he will break those records, but just used to illustrate the unstoppable force he's been through three games.

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The next leading wide receiver on the Falcons' roster is Leonard Hankerson, who currently has 23 fewer receptions, 302 fewer receiving yards and three fewer touchdowns than Jones.

It's not that they don't have other weapons capable of beating the Texans, but I would just make them prove it over four quarters.

During the second half of the Texans' game last week against Tampa Bay, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel started bracketing Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson at times with a corner in coverage over the top and either a linebacker or safety dropping underneath the route.

Jones is capable of beating double-teams, but if the two defenders do their job, Matt Ryan will either have to look to someone else or attempt a risky pass that might get intercepted.

That plan isn't foolproof, but it's better to take a chance with that strategy instead of leaving Jones in single coverage; the Texans don't have a cornerback on the roster who can cover him one-on-one.

The other part of this strategy would include dropping six or seven defenders back into coverage on most plays to tighten up the passing windows for Matt Ryan.

My preference is usually to blitz veteran quarterbacks instead of sitting back in coverage, but facing Jones doesn't afford you that luxury.

Every strategy comes with a weak point, but I'd rather trust J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to get pressure by themselves, and trust Vince Wilfork to plug up holes against the run, than put my faith in Johnathan Joseph or Kareem Jackson in one-on-one coverage against Jones.

For what it's worth, Jackson is currently the Texans' worst-rated defender in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus.

Devonta Freeman had an excellent game last week and will likely have room to run against this strategy, but I'll take his five- and six-yard runs over 15- and 20-yard completions to Jones. At least with a slower march down the field, their defense will have more opportunities to cause a turnover.

The Texans rank seventh in the run defense rating from Pro Football Focus and have held their opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry this season, so I think their defense is capable of stopping the run without run-blitzing or dropping a safety down into the box.

Key Players and Matchups

Who Covers Julio Jones?

Not that any one man is the answer or capable of covering Jones in single coverage, but I'd start the game with Joseph covering the Falcons star.

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Joseph was thrown at 12 times last week but only had two passes completed against him. Joseph also got credited with five passes defensed and was the top-rated defender in the pass coverage rating from Pro Football Focus for Week 3.

Leaving Joseph in single coverage would be a mistake, but he's the Texans' best option.

Blocking Vic Beasley

Despite starting a different group of offensive linemen each week of the season, the Texans' makeshift line has done a decent job in pass protection.

Week 1 was a nightmare with the Kansas City Chiefs' interior defensive line just bullying Texans guard Jeff Adams around, but since then the blocking has improved.

For the entire season, the Texans rank in the middle at 15th in sack percentage, the percentage of time their quarterback has been sacked when dropping back to pass.

The Texans have faced several very talented pass-rushers like Justin Houston, Jacquies Smith and Mario Addison, but Falcons rookie Vic Beasley will pose a unique challenge.

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Beasley posted the top 40-yard dash time—4.53 seconds—the most reps in the bench press, the third-best vertical leap, third-best broad jump, fourth-best three-cone drill time and fourth-best 20-yard-shuttle time among all outside linebacker prospects at the NFL Scouting Combine.

So far this season Beasley has two sacks, one quarterback hit and three quarterback hurries and is the Falcons' top-rated pass-rusher by a wide margin, according to Pro Football Focus.

Thankfully, with All-Pro tackle Duane Brown listed as probable, the Texans will have a good chance to win this matchup.

Prediction

The Falcons defense has given up 20 points or more each week but should have enough to defeat the Texans this week.

With as many points as their offense is likely to score, the Falcons defense won't need to make many stops, but Beasley as a pass-rusher and Desmond Trufant at cornerback are capable of making enough plays to win the game.

The Texans are averaging just 18.7 points per game compared to 29.7 from the Falcons offense; Houston doesn't have enough firepower to defeat Atlanta on the road.

Final Score: Falcons 30, Texans 21