Vikings vs. Broncos: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings will face their most difficult test of the season when they travel to Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium to square off with the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos.
Minnesota has begun to make a name for itself over the past two weeks, receiving a ton of positive attention and plenty of optimistic stances regarding the team's future. But plenty of doubters remain who point to the Vikings' lack of a signature win.
Well, this Sunday presents an opportunity to acquire this victory and considerably more respect in terms of evaluating Minnesota's potential moving forward. In order for this scenario to become a reality for Mike Zimmer, his players and the diehard fans of this team, the Vikings will need to overcome a plethora of remarkably talented players and a trio of standout coaches.
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The best way to overcome this star-studded group and acquire that elusive signature win is by preparing and executing on a signature game plan—which is exactly what we will be looking at here.
Offensive Game Plan
Certain elements of Minnesota's game plan carry over week to week. On offense, this element involves feeding Adrian Peterson the ball as many times as possible and allowing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to act as the fertilizer to the running back's Venus flytrap.
This plan of attack has been common knowledge around the league since the Vikings began supplementing the Peterson flytrap with low-quality manure following the retirement of Brett Favre. Minnesota has since upgraded to Miracle Grow but seemingly is not applying the recommended amount, as Bridgewater has yet to produce a standout performance in 2015—at least from a counting statistics standpoint.
Facing a tough Denver defense in a stadium that is known for gassing the opposition because of an elevation of 5,280 feet (one mile) above sea level, the Vikings will be forced to throw the ball more often or employ second-year running back Jerick McKinnon more frequently than he has become accustomed to since Peterson's return to the 53-man roster.
Denver's high altitude sounds like a non-factor, but the elevation is high enough to make breathing difficult and, as a result, dramatically reduce player stamina. In fact, the elevation was enough to keep former Pittsburgh Steelers safety Ryan Clark off the field entirely due to its effect on people with the sickle cell trait—he even missed a playoff game as a result.
The easy answer to this issue is a combination of both options—Bridgewater should throw the ball more often, and McKinnon should see an increase in carries.
However, there is one small issue with this plan: Denver has two of the best cornerbacks in the game patrolling its defense. While Minnesota can't play an entire game completely avoiding Chris Harris and Aqib Talib—Bradley Roby seems to be following an elite trajectory as well—the Vikings should be able to minimize how much the pair of former Pro Bowlers influence the outcome of the game.
Outside of Harris, Talib and Roby, the Broncos struggle in pass coverage. Strong safety T.J. Ward has been a liability, but Denver's greatest weakness in defending against the pass rests with its linebackers.
In fairness, linebackers aren't expected to be elite in coverage, but the Broncos' core group of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall is ill-equipped to slow down pass-catchers in both man and zone coverage.
This makes the "heavy" or multiple-tight end set a perfect kryptonite—especially with Minnesota's group of outstanding receiving tight ends. Kyle Rudolph and MyCole Pruitt represent the most important pieces here, as Rhett Ellison will likely play more of a deception role—he has been known to run a quick slant or flat route from time to time, though.
Minnesota could also activate Chase Ford this week, which carries the potential of a lethal three-tight end set from a matchup perspective—consider this my bold prediction of the week.
Minnesota ran a three-tight end set against the San Diego Chargers last week, utilizing each of its active tight ends to the best of their ability.
Both Rudolph (red) and Pruitt (orange) ran crossing patterns over the middle of the field, and Ellison stayed in as a blocker—a skill that he is rarely recognized for outside of Minnesota despite him being potentially the very best at this niche role in the entire NFL.
This particular play ultimately did not amount to anything, as Bridgewater slightly overthrew a pass that Pruitt was unable to bring in; he should have caught the ball for a large gain, however.
The point here is not to highlight the past; this diagram acts as potential foreshadowing. While Bridgewater elected to target Pruitt, both the rookie and Rudolph were open at times throughout their route progression, and Ellison kept a pesky pass-rusher far away from the Vikings quarterback.
The design of the play completely exposed San Diego's linebackers and allowed two far more gifted athletes in Rudolph and Pruitt to break open into the soft spots of the Chargers' zone coverage.
Minnesota may not run this play with all three tight ends being used in the exact same way against Denver, but it's certainly a look the Broncos—specifically Marshall (91 pass-coverage snaps) and Trevathan (57 pass coverage snaps, per Pro Football Focus), who are asked to drop back in coverage the most often—would have a difficult time defending against.
In addition to utilizing the three-tight end set to allow Bridgewater more time in the pocket or create coverage mismatches, the Vikings are likely to run Peterson behind an enhanced offensive line as well on Sunday.
One of the inherent issues with using formations for specific play calls is that defenses are able to associate opposition alignments with what the team tends to do situationally. For example, if an offense only runs wide receiver reverse plays out of the I-formation (for some reason), the opposing defense can game-plan to guard against it simply by seeing the personnel on the field.
As it relates to the Vikings in Week 4, if Minnesota is utilizing a heavy formation both to run downhill with Peterson and gouge Denver's linebackers with mismatch tight ends, the Vikings could catch the Broncos off guard with, for example, a player such as Miller (12 pass-coverage snaps) forced to drop into pass coverage.
In this example, this not only knocks out an elite pass-rusher from chasing Bridgewater, but it also means putting a pure pass-rusher in charge of shadowing a skill position player such as Rudolph.
The above example isn't a three-tight end set, but it does feature a fullback and a tight end on the field to fulfill blocking assignments. On this play, each player is in charge of the opposition who has the same number floating around him.
Example: No. 82 Rudolph (right side) has a blue No. 1. He is in charge of the player directly to his right with a red No. 1.
Assuming each member of the Vikings offense is able to satisfy his assignment, Peterson should reach the second level with ease with only a defensive back to beat in order to find the end zone. While he did not successfully make it past San Diego's last line of defense, it was a successful play call, and the Vikings advanced closer to the end zone.
Minnesota should use this personnel package frequently to slow down Denver's pass rush and run defense.
The takeaways here are simple: Denver boasts one of the best defensive lines and defensive secondaries in the NFL. As a result, the Broncos are a lethal defensive unit as a whole, and they have stopped the run as well as the pass efficiently through three games.
In order to combat this, the Vikings have to find a weakness. In terms of the passing game, this weakness exits in Denver's linebackers. Bridgewater won't be able to avoid throwing in the direction of the Broncos cornerbacks all afternoon, but expect plenty of personnel packages involving a tight end (or three) lined up across from either a linebacker or safety wearing a Broncos jersey.
Both the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs took advantage of this weakness with Eric Ebron and Travis Kelce, respectively. Rudolph and Pruitt are on the same level as these two tight ends in terms of size, speed and athleticism, which makes either player a perfect candidate to follow in Ebron's or Kelce's footsteps.
As for the ground game, the Vikings will likely load up their offensive line (partly to help T.J. Clemmings on the right side) in order to create bigger holes for Peterson. Utilizing the same personnel for running plays as passing plays inherently plays the role of a disguise, which may help Bridgewater and the offense unleash their first huge gainer through the air.
Above all, the tight end position will be a major piece against the Broncos, as the Vikings use one or more to nullify the advantages Denver boasts on defense.
Defensive Game Plan
The Vikings' defensive game plan for this weekend is very simple: Hit the quarterback and do it quickly and often. It was easy for me to type that sentence, but it is far more difficult to make Peyton Manning eat grass on Sundays.
Last week, we talked about the double A-gap blitz formation, a package that should rack up the mileage again this week. The Broncos boast two elite wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders as well as multiple other relevant targets such as Andre Caldwell and Jordan Norwood.
This sets the stage for the Captain Munnerlyn and Eric Kendricks-led nickel package to see plenty of action, which makes the double A-gap blitz the logical pressure alignment. Given Minnesota's need to hit the quarterback, calling blitz plays as frequently as possible is obligatory.
The Vikings' four-man pass rush contains enough talent to do some damage, but Zimmer loves to turn up the heat with well-disguised blitz packages.
Blitzing Manning is essentially a huge-risk, huge-reward call. The veteran signal-caller is outstanding at diagnosing defenses pre-snap and possibly even better at taking advantage of a blitz call on the fly.
On this play, Detroit is going to show a blitz off the edge but instead brings a cornerback from the left side of the formation; during the pre-snap, the Lions are showing press-man coverage against Sanders.
Seeing right through the Detroit defense, Manning motions a running back to his left side (this occurred prior to the screenshot). This back is set to be in charge of protecting against an edge blitz, regardless of whether it comes from the linebacker with his hand in the dirt or the cornerback trying to sell Manning in coverage.
The cornerback previously lined up across from Sanders converges. Due to the presence of the running back Manning moved over prior to the snap, Detroit essentially gave up a player in coverage for nothing, as he is stopped right in his tracks while the Denver quarterback enjoys a clean pocket.
However, Manning is aware that his running back isn't going to be able to sustain his block forever. Recognizing that Detroit has a linebacker stuck in zone coverage in the middle of Sanders' crossing route, Manning simply waits long enough for his wide receiver to pass through the linebacker's zone.
As Sanders reaches the edge, Manning leads him to the catch, which allows him to break free for a 10-yard reception across the field and a first down.
Moral of the story? Players who blitz better get to Manning fast, or he's going to take full advantage of there being one less defender in pass coverage. This example plays the "horror story" role in regard to blitzing Manning.
The Vikings cannot afford to rack up multiple failed blitz attempts, or they will end up just like Detroit.
In addition to getting after Manning, the Vikings need to stop the run, per usual. This is one area they should feel confident about going into Sunday. Minnesota's run defense is not only outstanding, but Denver's rushing attack has been essentially non-existent to date this season.
Running backs C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have plenty of ability—and have proved it in the past—but the offensive line is one of the worst run-blocking units in the NFL. Even veteran and former Pro Bowler Evan Mathis has struggled from time to time in blocking his assignments on run plays.
Furthermore, the Broncos will be without starting rookie left tackle Ty Sambrailo because of injury. According to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, former Cretin-Derham Hall (Minn.) and Notre Dame graduate Ryan Harris will shift over from right tackle to left tackle and be replaced by Michael Schofield:
"Broncos tackle Ryan Harris, who will play for the injured Ty Sambrailo at left tackle Sunday against the... http://t.co/U1WMlOXViU
— Jeff Legwold (@Jeff_Legwold) October 2, 2015"
Sambrailo, who has allowed nine pressures this year, according to Pro Football Focus, had been a liability through three weeks. The issue with Harris replacing him, however, is it creates an offensive line situation with the potential to be even worse.
Harris has not played well on the right side this season, and he has spent the majority of his career as a journeyman offensive lineman. Had it not been for Ryan Clady's injury, he may not have made the 53-man roster at all.
This represents not only a greater opportunity to shut down the run, but Everson Griffen may have a novel written on spin-move success stories by the time this game finishes.
Harris has been responsible for seven pressures (including one sack) on the right side, and he will face a far more difficult challenge in Griffen while playing a far more important role on the left side this Sunday.
If Minnesota wants to win this game, it absolutely needs to hit Manning repeatedly. The table is set in terms of Denver featuring multiple inferior blockers while Minnesota attacks with a host of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. However, taking advantage of these factors and executing the defensive game plan remains far easier said than done.
It can be assured that Manning is well aware of his offensive line deficiencies. He should be expected to throw a multitude of quick routes out of the pistol formation to keep the Vikings' lethal pass rush at bay.
Key Players
Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback, Minnesota
The Vikings can't beat the Broncos in Denver without expanding Bridgewater's responsibilities; it's really that simple.
Bridgewater hasn't played poorly this season, but he needs to be better for Minnesota to reach the next level—the playoff-caliber group of teams where Denver currently resides. He possesses the necessary decision-making skills and arm talent to be successful, but being forced to assume a larger role one-dimensionally in a comeback effort is a disaster waiting to happen.
Peterson can't run the ball 25 times this game—or at least not at full stamina. Keeping Minnesota's superstar running back fresh is key in itself, and Bridgewater has the potential to do this with a consistent performance that features a high number of long, time-consuming drives.
If the Vikings second-year quarterback can change the narrative to how his passing ability influences the defensive sets Peterson faces—as opposed to the other way around—this offense has the potential to challenge the Broncos. But both Bridgewater and offensive coordinator Norv Turner need to take more downfield risks to make this scenario come to life.
Emmanuel Sanders, Wide Receiver, Denver
Sanders is criminally underrated, and this is largely because he plays opposite another one of the league's best wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas. Given that Xavier Rhodes isn't capable of being in two places at once, one of Denver's pair of top-notch wide receivers will have the far easier assignment of outperforming Terence Newman.
Conventional wisdom suggests Rhodes will be in charge of following Thomas around on Sunday, which leaves Newman responsible for Sanders. The veteran cornerback isn't a liability at his position, but Sanders is an under-the-radar No. 1-caliber wide receiver who happens to play opposite another No. 1 option.
Sanders can run a full route tree and possesses both breakaway speed and open-field talent. He is far less explosive than Thomas—as almost everyone is—but there is a fair argument for him being the more complete and well-rounded receiving option in Denver.
Even in his prime, Newman would have struggled to contain Sanders; this is a mismatch on paper and one Denver could exploit in a game-changing manner.
Anthony Barr, Linebacker, Minnesota
Anthony Barr will play a highly important role every time Minnesota faces an elite quarterback. It is a simple enough responsibility in theory, but few have had as much success as Barr has during the early part of the 2015 season. He simply knows how to hit the quarterback consistently (cleanly) throughout the entirety of a game, and he is completely relentless while attempting to do so.
The Vikings may have gone into halftime with the lead in Week 3, but the San Diego Chargers were right on their heels both on the scoreboard and on the field. However, when the pass-rushing group led by Barr began to demolish Philip Rivers during the second half, Minnesota all of a sudden was able to break out to an insurmountable advantage.
Harrison Smith and Everson Griffen were key here as well, but nobody flustered Rivers more than Barr last week. The Chargers quarterback had no lunch money left to hand over by the time backup Kellen Clemens relieved him.
Manning is older and much more fragile than Rivers, but he is also much more difficult to land a clean shot on, because Denver's offense is run primarily out of the pistol formation. This was a major scheme adjustment made by head coach Gary Kubiak in order to better suit Manning's diminishing talents; the team set it in motion for the first time last week against the Lions.
If Barr proves capable of knocking the stuffing out of Manning—similar to the way that he slowly chipped away at Matthew Stafford and Rivers in previous weeks—the Vikings should have an opportunity to win this game with clutch crunch-time play.
Brandon Marshall, Linebacker, Denver
Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will have a monster impact on Sunday, but linebacker Brandon Marshall is the one who is most responsible for stopping the run in Denver, and he also often gets stuck in coverage against tight ends.
The Vikings will aim to run the ball down Denver's throat, and tight end Kyle Rudolph has been Bridgewater's favorite target early in the season. This makes Marshall potentially even more important than Miller and Ware as it relates to stopping Minnesota's offense.
Norv Turner will attempt to neutralize Miller and Ware by running the football and will likely call many plays designed for Rudolph in order to avoid Talib and Chris Harris as often as possible, which corresponds well with Bridgewater's comfort zone.
Marshall, who broke onto the scene as "the other Brandon Marshall," has started to vanquish this moniker, as the New York Jets wide receiver (with the same name) continues to age, while Denver's Marshall advances his development.
If Marshall can keep Peterson in check more often than not and fulfill his obligations in coverage, this game will have the look of a mismatch that favors the Broncos.
Prediction
In short, this is a winnable game for the Vikings. I initially predicted the Broncos as 10-point favorites, but a more thorough examination gave more reason to believe Minnesota can win this game. If the Vikings were playing the Broncos at home in the comfort of a more livable and familiar altitude, I would be even more inclined to favor Peterson and Co.
Until Denver proves it can run the football effectively (or at least better) and improves in pass protection, it will be a beatable team essentially every week. These are elements that are often overlooked or not given enough consideration when judging the competitiveness of a matchup.
Protecting the quarterback and running the football well still win football games more often than not, and a basic comparison between the 2014 and 2015 Seattle Seahawks teams is proof enough.
The Vikings have the perfect defensive game plan and corresponding talent to exploit the Broncos' greatest offensive weaknesses too, which makes Minnesota an excellent upset pick this week. Griffen, Barr and Smith could ultimately do enough damage to shift this game into Minnesota's favor.
While Denver may have substantial flaws on offense, its defense boasts no glaring weaknesses—forcing teams to create mismatches with their own personnel—and a host of game-changing playmakers at every level. This will ultimately be what pushes the Broncos past the Vikings.
Bridgewater has not played poorly through three weeks, but he certainly has not shown improvement from his rookie season or an ability to lead a one-dimensional passing offense.
If the Broncos offense is able to build a two-score lead, Bridgewater will be forced to throw the ball more often and further down the field—and I can't ignore Denver's considerable advantage if this plausible scenario plays itself out.
Even if Minnesota plays Denver closely from start to finish, the Vikings can't win without more production from Bridgewater. I expect the elevation to take a toll on Peterson at some point due to his being out of football for essentially the entire 2014 season; his conditioning is not in the uncharted territory that it will be by November.
At its most basic level, this contest will come down to Denver's defense against Bridgewater and Minnesota's defense against Manning. With Denver playing at home and sporting the superior defense, I'm giving the nod to the future Hall of Fame quarterback and his Broncos by a slim three-point margin.
Final Score: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings news, analysis and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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