Panthers vs. Buccaneers: Full Carolina Game Preview

The Carolina Panthers (3-0) sit atop the NFC South entering their Week 4 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2), as they look to match the best start in franchise history.

The Panthers have only opened a season at 4-0 once before.  In 2003, the Panthers got past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints (as well as the Atlanta Falcons) to get to 4-0.  That, of course, was the year of the Super Bowl run, with the Panthers reaching Super Bowl XXXVIII and coming tantalizingly close to taking home the Lombardi Trophy, taking a lead into the fourth quarter before ultimately falling short.

Is this the year the Panthers match or exceed that franchise high-water mark? 

Obviously, it’s too early to make any proclamations like that—and first, the Panthers need to take care of business on the road against the Buccaneers.

In recent years, beating the Buccaneers hasn’t been a significant problem for the Panthers.  Carolina is riding a four-game winning streak, including two wins with Derek Anderson behind center last season.  Tampa Bay, which put up a combined 6-26 record in 2013 and 2014, didn’t exactly provide the toughest competition.

That may be changing in 2015, however.  The Buccaneers are only 1-2, including a crushing loss against Tennessee in the season opener, but they’ve put together some solid play in their last two games.  They upset New Orleans in a game where their defense managed to get to and injure Drew Brees and were competitive against Houston until kicking issues let them down.

That’s not to say that Tampa Bay is suddenly in the upper echelon of NFL franchises or anything like that.  Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston has completed less than half of his passes in two of his first three games, the offense is averaging just 16.3 points and 308 yards per game so far and no team has been penalized more than the Buccaneers have through three weeks, according to the NFL Penalty Tracker.

However, looking at the Buccaneers as the same team that was terrible the last two years might be overlooking the positive signs that they’ve put together.  They’re trending in the right direction, even if they still have a significant way to go.

According to Odds Shark, that’s the general consensus for this game.  Even though the game will take place in Tampa, the Panthers have been installed as three-point favorites.  While Carolina hasn’t exactly taken down a murder’s row of opponents, they’re still undefeated and looking like the sharper team through three weeks.

Road division victories will be crucial if the Panthers want to win the division this year, especially with Atlanta playing well.  This might be the easiest road game remaining on Carolina’s schedule, as well, so picking up a victory seems imperative.

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

TV: FOX, with Chris Myers and Ronde Barber announcing for the third time this season

Week 3 Results and Recap

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The Panthers sent the Saints to the bottom of the division.

Before the Week 3 matchup, we highlighted the possibility of Cam Newton having a strong passing day against a questionable Saints secondary, which is precisely what happened.

Newton went 20-of-31 passing for 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns, adding another with his legs to fuel a 27-22 victory over the New Orleans Saints.  Greg Olsen had a career-high 134 yards receiving, including a 52-yard bomb and multiple touchdowns to lead a Panthers passing game which averaged 10.2 yards per attempt.

Of course, it wasn’t a blowout by any stretch of the imagination.  Luke McCown, starting in place of the injured Drew Brees, was spectacularly efficient, completing 31 of his 38 passes for 310 yards of his own. 

Josh Norman ended one comeback attempt with a spectacular leaping interception, but the Saints had the ball in their hands down by just five points at the end of the game.  In the end, though, the Panthers were able to hold on for the victory.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, fell to the Houston Texans, 19-9.  They arguably outplayed the Texans on offense and defense, but kicker Kyle Brindza missed an extra point and three field goals in the second half.  That would have been enough to tie the game, and the Texans were able to cash in on a field goal thanks to the good field position provided by one of the three missed field goals.

They did manage to hold J.J. Watt to his first day without a sack since 2014, but Ryan Mallett had 228 yards passing, and Alfred Blue scorched them for 139 yards on the ground in a sloppy slugfest.  Jameis Winston threw for 261 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  He hit Mike Evans for 101 yards, but Evans also had a handful of drops.  It was very much two steps forward, one step back for their offensive development in this one.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct	Notes
Carolina Panthers	3-0	1.000	Ahead of ATL via divisional record
Atlanta Falcons	3-0	1.000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-2	.333
New Orleans Saints	0-3	.000

The Panthers are atop the division on a technicality.  They picked up an all-important division victory last week, while the Falcons don’t open their division slate until Week 6.  Still, one division win banked is a good start for the Panthers.

The Falcons improved to 3-0 last week with a come-from-behind win against the Dallas Cowboys.  That makes the NFC South the only division with two undefeated teams.  Conversely, the Saints can be more or less written out of the playoff race if they lose to Dallas this week; only one team has ever started 0-4 and recovered to make the playoffs.

NFC Playoff Race

Team	Record	Pct	Notes
Arizona Cardinals	3-0	1.000	Ahead of GB and CAR via conference record
Green Bay Packers	3-0	1.000	Ahead of CAR via conference record
Carolina Panthers	3-0	1.000	Ahead of ATL via divisional record
Dallas Cowboys	2-1	.667
Atlanta Falcons	3-0	1.000
Minnesota Vikings	2-1	.667

Carolina only has one win in the conference so far, thanks to a schedule that has had them touring the AFC South for the first two weeks of the season.  Green Bay’s already banked two conference wins, and Arizona has three, which will matter if any of those teams run into some trouble later in the season.

No matter how you apply the tiebreakers at this point—and it should be noted that they’re not really designed for use this early in the season, when teams have played a vastly different number of games in their conferences and divisions—the Panthers sit in playoff position entering Week 4.  They still control their own fate for a bye week as well, though a loss to Tampa Bay would derail that. 

You can argue all you want about how impressive a 3-0 team Carolina “really” is, but that zero in the loss column speaks for itself, at least for now.

News and Notes

Sam Riche/Associated Press

Jared Allen will return to his 4-3 defensive end position in Carolina.

Charles Johnson Out Until Thanksgiving

Charles Johnson has been battling a gimpy hamstring for the entire season.  He missed all of the preseason with it and has been somewhat limited in practice until this point.

It came to a head toward the end of the third quarter against the Saints.  While rushing Luke McCown, Johnson pushed off his right leg and immediately grabbed at his hamstring.  He limped off the field with help and was eventually carted to the locker room.

It was apparent from the start that it would be a long-term deal, but the severity increased as more information came in.  In the postgame press conference, Ron Rivera indicated he was “concerned” about the extent of the injury, according to Black and Blue Review, but the Charlotte Observer’s Joseph Person tweeted that the Panthers were not considering using the short-term IR for Johnson at that time.

However, circumstances changed, and Johnson was placed on “IR boomerang” on Tuesday, meaning he will not be eligible to return to the active roster until the November 26 showdown against the Dallas Cowboys.

It’s a significant blow to the team.  Johnson hadn’t quite been up to his old standards in the pass rush, with just one sack and four hurries, according to Pro Football Focus, but he was a force in run defense and a key veteran piece on the offensive line—not to mention the fact that he’s chewing up more than 13 percent of Carolina’s salary-cap space this season, as noted by Over the Cap.  Since the Panthers never really replaced Greg Hardy, losing Johnson could hurt.

Carolina Trades for Jared Allen

In-season player trades are extremely rare in the NFL.  Before this week, the Panthers had only made one in their entire history—dealing a fifth-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for Tank Tyler back in 2009.

They now have a second one, and it’s likely to be a bit more significant.

The Panthers have sent a conditional sixth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for the services of Jared Allen, who has passed his physical and reported to the Panthers.

At 33, Allen’s best days are behind him.  He’s not the same player who made six Pro Bowls between 2007 and 2012 in Kansas City and Minnesota.  Do not, however, mistake that for meaning he’s washed up.  Allen is still a very solid player.

While he was miscast in Chicago’s new 3-4 defense, Allen was doing well as an outside linebacker this season.  While he doesn’t have a sack yet, PFF charted him with five quarterback hits and a hurry through the first three weeks of the season, which isn’t bad for a player learning a new position.  Last season, in his more familiar 4-3 defensive end slot, Allen finished the year with a plus-5.4 grade, putting him in the top 20 among 4-3 defensive ends.

So, no, the Panthers aren’t picking up a player who’s a borderline Hall of Fame candidate; he’s more of a rotational player with experience at this point in his career.  That’s worth it, however, for just a sixth-round pick.  He probably would have been starting across from Charles Johnson even if Johnson and Frank Alexander were both healthy; now, he’s a much-needed boost for the defensive line until Johnson gets back.

The Panthers have reportedly moved Kony Ealy to the left side, according to Rotoworld, and Allen could see snaps as early as Sunday.  Ron Rivera said on his weekly radio show that Allen should be ready to go almost immediately.  "Offensive linemen really adapt very quickly,” Rivera said, via ESPN.  “Defensive linemen are next, because for the most part defensive linemen just go in one direction, and that's upfield."

Panthers Try Out Three Punters

It’s not just defensive end that’s apparently concerning Dave Gettleman and the Panthers front office.  According to Person, the Panthers brought in three punters for a workout on Tuesday.

They included former Jacksonville and Chicago punter Adam Podlish, former Cleveland punter Spencer Lanning and Kasey Redfern, formerly of Wofford and the Jaguars training camp.

They did not sign any of the punters, and Brad Nortman will continue to have the job this week.

Nortman has the sixth-best average punt distance this season at 48.6 gross yards per punt, but his net yardage isn’t nearly as good.  He’s 27 in the league there at just 36 yards per punt, thanks in large part to Marcus Murphy’s touchdown return last week.

Nortman hasn’t been as good as his gross ranking would indicate—part of punting involves making sure the opponent can’t get a return, after all, and a rather high 60 percent of Nortman’s punts have actually been returned. 

However, not all of the return yardage is his fault, and replacing him won’t make the Panthers' special teams woes suddenly vanish.  He’s not the 27th-best punter in the league, as his net average would indicate—the coverage units need to do a better job corralling players like Murphy before he can break a return into the open field.

There’s also the fact that Murphy’s touchdown is depressing Nortman’s net average.  Without it, Nortman’s net would be at 39.9 yards per punt, putting him squarely in the middle of the rankings.  This early in the season, one big play can have a massive effect on a punter’s average.

In short, while Nortman isn’t one of the top punters in the league by any definition, he hasn’t played nearly poorly enough to be replaced in the middle of the season.

Injuries

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Luke Kuechly is yet to be cleared to practice.

The biggest injury not listed on either Carolina’s or Tampa Bay’s practice reports is that of Charles Johnson, who is on IR and won’t be back until November.  Other than that, the two teams are fairly equally matched in terms of number of players missing practice.

Panthers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Thomas Davis	LB	Chest	Limited
Jonathan Stewart	RB	Tibia	None
Mike Tolbert	FB	Groin	None
Philly Brown	WR	Illness	None
Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Ankle	None
Daryl Williams	OT	Knee	None
Dwan Edwards	DT	Non-Injury	None
Luke Kuechly	LB	Concussion	None

• Thomas Davis picked up a pectoral injury Sunday against New Orleans and had an MRI on Monday to evaluate the extent of the injury, according to the Observer's Jonathan Jones.  While there’s been no reporting on what the MRI discovered, Davis was able to practice in pads on Wednesday in a limited fashion.  It’s a situation to keep an eye on, but he stands a chance of being ready to play.
• Jonathan Stewart was briefly forced out of Sunday’s game with a leg injury but returned to finish the game.  As he’s been held out of every practice for the past three weeks but still played, expect the same situation to play out this week.  Fozzy Whittaker is the primary backup, should this be more significant
• Mike Tolbert is listed with a groin injury but still worked out on the side, according to Person.  Like Stewart, this is probably more of a rest day than anything else.  If it does force him to miss any time, Richie Brockel would be in line for more snaps, though we’d also likely see more two-tight end sets.
• Philly Brown was sent home with an illness so that he could rest and not spread it to the rest of the team, according to ESPN’s David Newton.  He should be good to go, though Devin Funchess could start taking some snaps from him, considering Brown has been a non-factor in the passing game so far.
• Jerricho Cotchery is still out with his high-ankle sprain but could return after the Week 5 bye.  Again, Funchess is stepping up to take the snaps Cotchery would otherwise be taking.
• Daryl Williams’ sprained MCL is still keeping him out of practice.  He should also be back after the bye, with Amini Silatolu serving as the primary backup until he’s back.
• Dwan Edwards got a veteran’s rest day, working on the side with Stewart and Tolbert, according to Person.  There’s no risk of him missing the game.
• Finally, Luke Kuechly still has not been cleared to return to practice after suffering his concussion in Week 1.  The independent neurologist has not yet given him the all-clear, which would mean he’s still symptomatic.  Two more weeks off should do him a lot of good.  A.J. Klein will continue to replace him, but if Thomas Davis is out as well, we may see Klein move back to the outside and rookie David Mayo serve as the middle linebacker.

Buccaneers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
George Johnson	DE	Neck	Limited
Gerald McCoy	DT	Shoulder	Limited
Major Wright	S	Abdomen	Limited
Chris Conte	S	Hip	Limited
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins	TE	Shoulder	None
Luke Stocker	TE	Hip	None
Donovan Smith	OT	Knee	None
Evan Smith	C	Ankle	None
Johnthan Banks	CB	Knee	None

• George Johnson is new on the injury report this week with an injured neck, but he was able to take part in practice.  He did leave the Houston game and was replaced by William Gholston, which would likely happen again if his injury keeps him out of this week’s contest.
• Gerald McCoy was limited all last week in practice with a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 2, but he played anyway.  Expect the same to happen this week.  Henry Melton would come in if the injury worsened, but McCoy has shown the ability to play though this.
• Major Wright returned to practice this week after missing the last two games with hip and abdomen injuries.   Simply returning to practice is a major step forward for him, and he may be ready to take part in this week’s contest.  Chris Conte has been his replacement, but…
• Conte is down with a hip injury.  Whatever it is, it didn’t seem to slow him down last week, as he played on about three quarters of the defensive snaps.  At least one of Wright or Conte should be good to go, but D.J. Swearinger is the next in line if both miss the game.
• Austin Sefarian-Jenkins strained his shoulder against the Saints in Week 2 and will be out for at least a couple more weeks.  Brandon Myers will get most of the reps in his place.
• Luke Stocker also received some snaps with Sefarian-Jenkins out—in fact, he technically started last week, though Myers was on the field more often.  He was held out Wednesday with a hip injury, which should give Myers a higher proportion of the reps this week.
• Rookie left tackle Donovan Smith missed practice with a knee injury suffered against Houston, and it’s serious enough that the Buccaneers made a roster move, according to the Tampa Bay Times.  Lovie Smith is “hopeful” Smith will practice, according to the Tampa Tribune.  Second-year player Kevin Pamphile is listed as Smith’s backup, though they may move Gosder Cherilus over to left tackle if Smith can’t go.
• Evan Smith is still suffering from the ankle injury he suffered in Week 2 and doesn’t look likely to return this week.  Joe Hawley should get another start in his absence.
• Johnthan Banks left Week 3’s matchup with Houston after he got caught in the turf and was replaced by Mike Jenkins.  Banks is “day to day”, according to Lovie Smith, via the Tampa Bay Times.  Surprisingly, his replacement would not likely be Alterraun Verner, whose snaps have been decreasing because of the quality of his play.

Key Matchups

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Gerald McCoy is one of the NFL's top interior linemen.

OLs Andrew Norwell, Ryan Kalil and Trai Turner vs. DTs Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald

If the Buccaneers can be said to have a real strength, it’s in the middle of their front seven on defense.  Lavonte David, who might be the best weak-side linebacker in football, often crashes into the middle on run support, where McCoy and McDonald lay in wait.

Tampa Bay has exactly three defensive players with green (+2.0 or higher) ratings on Pro Football Focus so far this season.  One is seldom-used linebacker Bruce Carter, and the other two are McCoy and McDonald. McCoy was an All-Pro in 2013 but declined to “just” be a Pro Bowler last season, while McDonald struggled a little transitioning from Seattle to Tampa Bay. 

This year, however, both have been very solid through three weeks—PFF has them as the fourth- and sixth-best pass-rushing tackles so far, with McDonald flashing against the run as well.

It’s worth noting that McDonald’s strained shoulder kept him from really going full-speed last week against Houston, with him coming in and out of the game, playing about 60 percent of the snaps instead of his normal 80 percent or so. 

When he’s in there, though, the duo of McCoy and McDonald set up Tampa’s entire Tampa 2 system.  The pressure they provide up the middle allows the ends to work one-on-one with the tackles, allowing the front four to get pressure without resorting to blitzes, and their tackling ability lets the linebackers cover the middle of the field without worrying about runs gashing the defense.  The entire defensive philosophy starts with McCoy's and McDonald's abilities to plug the middle of the line.

The Panthers’ strength on the offensive line—and arguably on the entire offense—is their three interior linemen, who have provided enough protection for Cam Newton to work his magic.  It’s a strength-against-strength battle in the trenches, and the game could easily be won or lost here.

QB Jameis Winston vs. Carolina’s Pass Rush

First-overall pick Jameis Winston has been something of a mixed bag in his three NFL starts so far, and it’s far too early to really determine which Winston is the real one.  Against Tennessee, he was something of a disaster, while he led the Buccaneers to an upset against New Orleans with very solid play.  His game against Houston was a mixed bag, too, with his accuracy falling somewhere between the first and second games. 

He’s shown the ability to make NFL throws; he just hasn’t shown the ability to do it consistently yet.

Part of that comes from putting him under pressure.  Tennessee was able to put Winston under constant pressure, forcing him to improvise and throw passes away.  By PFF’s charting, Tennessee got pressure on Winston on 19 dropbacks, recording four sacks and an interception.  Winston only completed four of his 13 passes. 

That’s the way to disrupt rookie quarterbacks—take them out of their comfort zone and chase them around the field.  New Orleans never did, and Winston had the best day of his short career.

With Charles Johnson out, getting pressure will not be easy.  Kony Ealy will have to step up and provide some real juice, and perhaps Jared Allen can come in and make an impact after less than a week with the team.

CB Josh Norman vs. WR Mike Evans

Josh Norman is quietly becoming one of the top cornerbacks in football.  He’s the fourth-rated cornerback in football this year, according to PFF, and he’s keeping opposing cornerbacks to a 38.8 quarterback rating when targeting him.  He hasn’t allowed receivers to earn 50 yards against him since Week 15 last season, according to PFF's charting stats.

Week 15 last season was against these same Buccaneers, but it wasn’t Mike Evans who victimized Norman—Vincent Jackson had three receptions for 37 yards, and Russell Shepard added 23 more, and they were the last players to have some sustained success against Norman.

It likely won’t be Jackson lining up against Norman this time, however, but their second-year star Mike Evans. 

After being shut out in the first two weeks of the season, Evans burst back onto the scene against Houston with seven receptions for 101 yards.  It took 17 targets to get him that yardage, but you can see the beginnings of what might be a solid connection between Winston and Evans, once they can get their timing down. 

Expect Norman and Evans to battle all day on Sunday.

X-Factors

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CHARLOTTE, NC - AUGUST 22: Michael Oher #73 of the Carolina Panthers against the Miami Dolphins during their preseason NFL game at Bank of America Stadium on August 22, 2015 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Panthers X-Factor: OT Michael Oher

Though three weeks, Oher is the lowest-rated offensive Panther on Pro Football Focus with a minus-6.1 grade; only Dwan Edwards on defense is below that.  He ranks 57th among offensive tackles, as well as 29th among primary left tackles to this point of the season.  That’s not a massive upgrade from Byron Bell, who was at minus-6.3 through three games last season.

Oher has, at least, struggled in a different way than Bell has.  Oher’s actually been just fine at absorbing the pass rush after struggling against Jacksonville in Week 1, not allowing a single sack since then.  It’s his ability to get a push in the run game that’s been an issue.

So far this season, Carolina has only averaged 3.19 yards per carry on rushes to the left, 22nd-best in the league.  That’s a far cry from what they were doing last season, when they averaged 4.57 yards per carry on those sorts of rushes.  Obviously, that must improve.

Oher did look better against New Orleans, so perhaps some of his struggles were just from adapting back to the left side of the line.  Tampa Bay has also allowed 5.12 yards per carry on runs to the left, seventh-most in the league, so there’s a chance for Oher to throw his weight around and get some momentum in the rushing game.

Buccaneers X-Factor: DE Jacquies Smith

Jacquies Smith is one of the more surprising stories of the season, with four sacks already through three games.  That leads the NFL, a full half-sack ahead of DeMarcus Ware, Aaron Donald and Jamie Collins.

Smith didn’t come out of nowhere, either—he had 6.5 sacks in the last eight games last season, beginning to produce as he finally got a chance in the starting lineup.  He’s really come on now that he’s had a chance to actually play regularly.

Now, leading the league in sacks is impressive, but with only three games played, it can also be misleading.    Three of those sacks came in one afternoon against the Saints, as he dominated right tackle Zach Strief.  Apart from that one game, he only has one sack, no quarterback hits and no hurries, according to PFF’s charting statistics.

He’ll be Mike Remmers’ responsibility on Sunday.  Is Smith’s league-leading total an artifact of one monster game, or can he continue to provide solid pressure around the edge?

Prediction: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 17

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Greg Olsen and the Panthers should pick up another divisional win against the Buccaneers.

These aren’t quite last year’s Buccaneers, but that’s not enough to favor them, even at home.

While there’s signs of improvement, that’s only been enough to move them to 30th in ESPN’s power rankings.  Football Outsiders’ DVOA puts them in the same spot, with the worst offense in football.  Winston has had two games this season where he’s completed less than half of his passes—he’s still adapting to the speed of the NFL.

It’s not going to get any easier for him this week going up against Carolina’s fourth-ranked defense.  While it’s true that the Panthers haven’t had a really great quarterback test them to this point in the season, they’ll certainly provide Winston with his toughest test so far.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid, but that can take you only so far.  I expect the first half to be relatively close, with neither offense able to do too much but with the Panthers having a larger time of possession.  This will start to wear the Buccaneers defense out, and by the second half, the Panthers should be able to get on a roll.

It’s not a strategy that will work every week, but it should be enough to handle the Buccaneers and enter the bye week at 4-0.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.