Bengals vs. Ravens: What's the Game Plan for Cincinnati?
Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals have a strong opportunity not only to start 3-0, but to send the Baltimore Ravens into an 0-3 hole at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Bengals look great through two games, to say the least. Marvin Lewis' team traveled west and expelled some unfavorable history with a 33-13 win against Oakland, then returned home and dismissed a game San Diego squad, 24-19.
Though the Ravens have two losses and went down in 37-33 fashion to those same Raiders, and the Bengals have won four of the last five meetings in the series, Sunday won't be as simple as the first two weeks for the Bengals.
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On paper, Cincinnati is arguably the better team. But Baltimore is at home, and desperation tends to amplify what is already a brutal divisional rivalry. Below, let's examine Cincinnati's proposed game plan to escape with a win.
Offensive Game Plan
Air it out.
Pretty simple, right? One would suggest the ground game with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard is important, but keep in mind the Bengals averaged 3.2 yards per carry over two games against Baltimore last season and still swept the season series.
Cincinnati did its damage through the air with A.J. Green and others, a staggering notion considering last year the team didn't have Tyler Eifert (well, for a few snaps) and Marvin Jones.
Which is the killer this year. Green only has eight catches on 12 targets with one score this season, watching as Eifert does most of the work with 13 grabs for 153 yards and three scores.
But Green now figures to get Baltimore's top corner Jimmy Smith, who has already allowed 10 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. He's seen 16 targets already, meaning opposing quarterbacks aren't exactly afraid to throw his way.
Without Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam after an offseason of losses including Haloti Ngata, it's been a tough go for the Baltimore defense this year. Last week, Oakland cruised to the 37 points and 448 yards, and opponents as a whole don't have many issues moving the chains, going 17-of-32 on third downs.
Running will help the Bengals, but the damage will really come through the air. This is a weaker Baltimore defense than last season, and Cincinnati has more weapons to utilize. Even if Green finds himself bottled up, the Ravens don't have anyone who can run with Eifert, and Jones is more than capable of winning one-on-one scenarios.
So long as Andy Dalton continues to make smart decisions behind one of the league's best offensive lines, the offense should move the ball well through the air with a spread-it-out attack.
Defensive Game Plan
The Ravens rely on the big play to score points this year, which is what the Bengals must work to limit Sunday.
With the team rushing for just 3.8 yards per carry, more stress than ever rests on the arm of quarterback Joe Flacco. He completed eight passes of 20 yards or longer in Oakland last weekend, all while spreading it out to eight different targets.
It's a good thing the Bengals have Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap in the trenches and playing at a high level.
Also a good thing? The fact that Baltimore ranks dead last at Pro Football Focus in pass blocking. The line has already allowed two sacks, six hits and 25 hurries. Flacco crumbles when pressured or blitzed, too, as the numbers show:
| No pressure | 48 | 1 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Plays under pressure | 31 | 1 | 2 | -3.2 |
| When not blitzed | 51 | 1 | 1 | 3.5 |
| When blitzed | 28 | 1 | 2 | -4.6 |
Cincinnati has the luxury of the aforementioned trio providing plenty of pressure without extra bodies coming on a blitz, meaning starting corners Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones can bottle up Steve Smith, who has 23 targets through two games—Justin Forsett, a running back, sits in second place at 11.
The ball will go to either Smith or upstart tight end Crockett Gillmore most of the day when Flacco feels flustered. Considering the Bengals have picked off Flacco 18 times in 14 matchups, a predictable, under-fire offense figures to make more mistakes against a Cincinnati defense that knows all too well what the Ravens want to do.
So long as the Bengals can prevent wideouts from getting behind the secondary and rattle Flacco early and often, the defense will hold up its end of the bargain on the road.
Key Players and Matchups
Marvin Jones
Jones was a key player last week because the team needed someone to take pressure off Green and others.
He responded when San Diego threw everything it had at Green and Eifert, catching two of five targets for 48 yards and a touchdown.
It's going to be much of the same for Jones in Baltimore. The offense needs him to convert on his multiple opportunities when Green and Eifert aren't available. Last week showed he was capable, but it might be even more important for him to execute this week.
Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick
The dynamic duo hasn't let big-name wideouts do damage so far this season.
Jones and Kirkpatrick combined to silence hyped Oakland rookie Amari Cooper, limiting him to five grabs for 47 yards despite nine targets. Cooper went on to catch seven passes for 109 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore.
The duo then turned its attention to San Diego's Keenan Allen, who caught 15 passes for 166 yards in Week 1. They held him to two catches on four targets.
Now the focus is Smith. Kirkpatrick told ESPN.com's Coley Harvey the key to shutting down the veteran will be composure.
"We just have to keep our composure, me and Pac [Jones], and not let the over-aggressiveness or anything like that affect our play or get us out of whack a little bit," Kirkpatrick said. "But we know the type of person [Smith] is, and we know the type of people we are. We just have to hold a little bit back."
If the duo can make it three impressive games in a row, odds are Cincinnati starts 3-0.
Jeremy Hill
Though he fumbled twice and wound up receiving just 10 carries, Hill very much remains an important part of the plan for the Bengals in Baltimore.
Spreading the ball out through the air works, but only so much without a ground game. Baltimore won't get caught off guard by Bernard like San Diego last week, and rest assured the defense will go for the strip every time Hill touches the ball.
As the power back and workhorse, Hill needs a few chain-moving runs early to silence the crowd and let the line and Dalton settle down.
Geno Atkins
Interior pressure changes everything for the Bengals.
While Atkins deserves praise as an elite run defender, what he does best is explode off the snap and collapse pockets from the inside, an unorthodox occurrence only a few players in the league can generate on their own without outside help.
Atkins' ability to do so Sunday will go a long way in deciding if the unit can once again take advantage of Flacco's mistakes. It's hard to imagine he can't against a struggling line, but it's something worth watching and one of the keys to the game.
Prediction
Sometimes, the on-paper outlook just comes to fruition.
The Bengals are the better team on both sides of the football. Andrew Whitworth and the offensive line won't have many issues silencing a pass rush that struggles mightily without Suggs, which in turn means Dalton won't commit many mistakes, if any, while spreading the ball around.
On defense, Atkins and Co. won't have any issues taking advantage of a porous line. Flacco has already shown this year he cannot do it on his own, but especially not against the Bengals given his history of performances.
Look for the Bengals to take full advantage of a few Baltimore turnovers en route to the routine victory.
Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Baltimore 14
Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of September 25. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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