5 Bold Predictions for Indianapolis Colts' Week 2 Matchup
The Indianapolis Colts were one of Week 1's biggest disappointments, losing a not-so-close matchup in Buffalo 27-14.
For a team attempting to establish itself as a power in the AFC, losing to an upstart team without a franchise quarterback is not the way to start the season. Fortunately, the season is 17 weeks long, meaning there is plenty of time for Indianapolis to make up for it's Week 1 flub.
That time starts in Week 2, when the New York Jets come to town.
The Jets, like the Bills, possess a stout, talent-laden defense with an offense loaded with skill players but lacking a quarterback. It shouldn't be an easy matchup by any means, but being back at home and having the trap game out of the way will tilt things back to the Colts' side.
Can they complete the rebound and get a win under their belt? Find out our predictions for that and more across the following slides.
Andre Johnson's Slump Continues
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Last week, I thought Andre Johnson could have a sneakily good game against the Bills in the season opener as Buffalo shifted coverage toward T.Y. Hilton and Johnson ate up space underneath.
But Johnson ended up being nearly invisible, catching just four passes for 24 yards. The Bills didn't shadow Hilton, so Luck focused on him early while Johnson's rough day catching the football limited his production late. The Luck-Johnson chemistry is still a work in progress and will improve, but it's not looking like Johnson has a particularly favorable situation for Monday's matchup against the Jets.
Johnson as the No. 1 target would not bode well against the Jets, who would likely put Darrelle Revis on him. There is still a possibility T.Y. Hilton plays on Monday, however, which would put Johnson in a better situation. But Hilton is a game-time decision right now, according to team reporter Kevin Bowen.
Even if Hilton plays, however, Johnson's outlook in Indianapolis is going to be fuzzy until he and Luck show considerable chemistry. Johnson's declining physical skills mean he doesn't get the separation he used to. If he's not dominating at the catch point, he simply won't catch a lot of passes unless he and Luck are on the same page.
This is certainly possible, but it may take more time than two weeks.
Frank Gore Is Effective but Limited
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Another hyped veteran free-agent signing, Frank Gore also had a less-than-stellar start to his Colts career, rushing for just 31 yards on eight carries.
But Gore's lack of production was more about his lack of opportunities than ineffective play. He only averaged 3.9 yards per carry but was successful on five of his eight runs, a very high 62.5 percent success rate. Gore didn't get carries for a number of reasons:
- The Colts were behind early and never really in a game script kind to running.
- The Bills were a terrible matchup for Indianapolis with an incredibly talented front seven up against the Colts' below-average offensive line. Trying to pass the ball made more sense, as it's Indianapolis' strength.
- Gore cramped up midway through the first half, limiting his time on the field.
Unlike Johnson, Gore actually looked good on the field and should continue to be a good fit in Indianapolis' offense.
Unfortunately, the Jets, with a stout run defense, shouldn't be a particularly friendly matchup, either. But if the Colts avoid falling behind early, there should be more opportunities for Gore to be involved in the rushing offense.
Andrew Luck Bounces Back
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If Andrew Luck really is a potential MVP candidate, or at least the caliber of player who could end up in the conversation, he will bounce back against the Jets on Monday.
The Colts are going back home, and the Jets will likely be without Antonio Cromartie, who sprained his knee in Week 1 and has yet to practice since, reported by NBC Sports. The Colts can't have everything go wrong like it did last time out, and the team should be sharper overall.
But really, the difference will depend on Luck simply playing better than he did against Buffalo.
The fourth-year quarterback's accuracy was off in Week 1, with his inconsistent ball placement getting in the way of the offense's rhythm. Luck rarely has games like that twice in a row and should be back to normal in Week 2.
If Luck does struggle from an accuracy perspective, we may have to look at the issue from a different angle. While he probably won't randomly regress as a player, it could be a question of how skittish and rushed he feels in the pocket, leading to more O-line concerns. In theory, Luck and this line should work well together, and the line actually did a decent job against the blitz last time out.
But if Luck isn't comfortable, and it's consistently affecting his play, the Colts' hopes for 2015 will quickly evaporate.
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The Run Defense Is Actually Gashed, Kind of
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Last week, the hysteria regarding the Colts' run defense reached peak levels, as the Bills' 147 total rushing yards at the end of the game represented an unacceptable total.
But really, Indianapolis' run defense was fairly stout outside of two big plays: Karlos Williams' 26-yard touchdown run at the end of the first half and Tyrod Taylor's 31-yard scramble a few plays earlier. Outside of those plays, the Colts allowed just 2.6 yards per rush and generally bottled up the Bills' running game.
The Jets represent a different threat, however.
New York's offensive line is much more talented than Buffalo's, paving the way for Chris Ivory's 91 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and two touchdowns last week. Ivory also is a more downhill runner than LeSean McCoy and could give the Colts more issues in the middle of the field.
Don't expect the Jets to get out to a big lead like the Bills did, though. New York may be forced to rely on the passing game more than Buffalo did, and the Jets also don't have a dual-threat quarterback to confuse things further.
The Jets will likely be more effective running the ball than Buffalo was, but they probably won't be able to ground-and-pound the whole game unless the Colts offense tanks once again.
Pass Defense Finishes the Win
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If the Jets can't run the entire game on Monday, that means Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to lead the team down the field to score consistently as the Colts offense should get into a better rhythm at home.
This should favor the Colts defense, especially if Greg Toler can play. Toler hasn't fully practiced this week, but he's put in significant time with trainers, according to Kevin Bowen on the team's official site, and he just needs to be cleared for contact now.
But the real issue for the Jets will be Fitzpatrick himself.
Fitzpatrick has the fourth-worst career-interception percentage among active quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Reference, and he's even more unlikely to be cautious with the ball with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker running around at wideout. The former Texans, Titans, Bills and Rams quarterback is bound to make a mistake or two, and the Colts secondary is primed to take advantage.
If the Jets are down late in the game, how much confidence can one really place in Fitzpatrick?
FINAL SCORE: Colts 27, Jets 17
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