Panthers vs. Jaguars: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

Historically, the Carolina Panthers have not had great starts to their seasons under head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera’s Panthers are just 1-3 in opening games since he took over the reins in 2011, and the Panthers’ 5-11 record in the first four games of a season over that time period is the fourth-worst record in football—a far cry from the Panthers’ generally respectable records under Rivera.

The team simply has had issues getting out of the starting gate.

Team	Games 1-4	Win %	Overall Record	Win %	Difference
Pittsburgh Steelers	6-10	0.375	39-27	0.591	-0.216
Carolina Panthers	5-11	0.313	33-33-1	0.500	-0.187
Indianapolis Colts	7-9	0.438	38-32	0.543	-0.105
St. Louis Rams	4-12	0.250	22-41-1	0.352	-0.102
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-14	0.125	14-50	0.219	-0.094

Faced with a winnable matchup against another slow starter—the Jacksonville Jaguars—can the Panthers avoid their traditional slow start and repeat last year’s opening-week victory? Let’s take a look at what the Panthers’ winning strategy might entail.

Offensive Game Plan

With Kelvin Benjamin on injured reserve, Devin Funchess not yet ready to start and Philly Brown having issues holding on to the football, it won’t come as a surprise to say that the Panthers’ game plan is going to have a healthy dose of running the football.

We didn’t get to see much of Jonathan Stewart during the preseason. He carried the ball just nine times, gaining 14 yards. We didn’t need to see much of Stewart, though, because we know what a healthy Stewart can do.

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PFF ranked #Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart as the 7th best RB in the NFL with a 83.0 grade!!! pic.twitter.com/7ZIxOZxBpb

— CAR Panthers News (@CarPanthersNews) August 12, 2015"

Last season, Stewart averaged 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season, finishing in the top 12 among running backs in efficiency. Like the rest of the Panthers, of course, he finished the season on a hot streak. After the bye week last season, Stewart averaged more than 5.3 yards per carry. That’s an incredible number—and a serious problem for any opposing defense.

The Jaguars actually weren’t horrible at defending the run last season. They allowed less than 4.1 yards per carry last season, 12th-best in the NFL, despite facing the second-most run attempts in football.

Twelfth-best is not necessarily a ranking you want to plaster on the front of your media guide, but when you were 3-13 last season and haven’t had a winning record since 2007, that’s not a horrible stat to hang your hat on.

The Jaguars’ run defense was not equally solid, however. On runs listed as going to the right, the Jaguars allowed 4.61 yards per carry last season, as opposed to the 3.85 yards per rush they gave up heading to the left. That means the Panthers’ best strategy will be to use Mike Remmers and Trai Turner and try to bully the left side of Jacksonville’s defense. Combined with Ryan Kalil and Mike Tolbert, the Panthers can create a fleet of blockers, trying to pry open running lanes for Stewart to gash Jacksonville’s defense.

Of course, they shouldn’t just count on Stewart—they happen to have a pretty good running quarterback as well. Cam Newton didn’t earn his $100 million extension because he’s a lightning-precise passer in the pocket, even if he did lead all quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ preseason passing ratings.

Newton is the best quarterback in the NFL running with the ball, and the Panthers would be foolish not to take advantage of that, considering Carolina’s lack of solid receiving options.

Player	Team	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Y/G
Cam Newton	CAR	467	2,571	5.51	33	41.5
Russell Wilson	SEA	308	1,877	6.09	11	39.1
Colin Kaepernick	SFO	261	1,576	6.04	10	32.8
Robert Griffin	WAS	244	1,480	6.07	8	40.0
Michael Vick	PHI/NYJ	200	1,380	6.90	4	34.5

It should be noted that the Jaguars never allowed an opposing quarterback to rush for 50 or more yards in a single game last season. However, they didn’t face any of the real rushing threats in the NFL. The top two rushing quarterbacks they faced were Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill, and they put up 49 and 48 yards, respectively.

Newton’s leaps and bounds better than Luck and Tannehill with the ball in his hands. He’s not just a scrambling quarterback—he’s a legitimate threat with the ball in his hands who would probably have found NFL success even had he been converted to running back.

You can expect the Jaguars to load the box when Newton gets into the pistol formation, but unlike any other current starting quarterback, Newton has the power to run through defenders, rather than just around them. If the Panthers are going to win this game, big days on the ground by Stewart and Newton are required.

The Panthers are assuredly going to have to get by with their running game because the passing game seems fated to do poorly. Brown and Ted Ginn aren’t a frightening receiving duo, and their particular skill sets work best when they’re allowed to run down the field, which takes time.

Time might not be something Newton has tons of—Gus Bradley’s pass rush will test Remmers and new left tackle Michael Oher early and often.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Last season, Ryan Davis and Chris Clemons combined to put up 59 of Jacksonville’s 212 quarterback pressures, per PFF, and you can expect them and free-agent acquisition Jared Odrick to be coming around the edges early and often.

The best way to counter that will be with shorter passing routes, perhaps to the sure-handed Greg Olsen, but that’s where Jacksonville strong safety John Cyprien, back from a hand injury, will come across the middle and lower the boom.

If Remmers can play like he did in his first few starts last year, and if Oher builds off his strong preseason performance, the Panthers should be able to pick up that pressure and give Newton the time he needs to operate.

If, however, Remmers continues to fade like he did in the playoffs against Seattle and Oher plays like the player he’s been since 2010 or so, Newton might be running for his life—hence the importance of establishing the running game, slowing down the edge-rushers just a little bit and setting up the play-action bombs.

Defensive Game Plan

If the Jaguars have an offensive strength—and you could make a solid argument that they did not in 2014—it would be in their running game. Their running offense ranked 20th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) last season at minus-8.2 percent, while their passing game was dead last at minus-32.1 percent.

Jacksonville carried the ball at a fairly solid 4.5 yards per carry last season. It finished with the fifth-least carries in football because it often fell behind and had to throw, but when the Jags did get to running, they were at least solid.

They have a new bell cow this year. Second-round pick T.J. Yeldon out of Alabama will get the lion’s share of the carries this season, if all goes according to plan.

Yeldon rushed for more than 1,000 yards in both 2012 and 2013, falling just short of that mark in 2014. That was still enough for Jacksonville to use the 36th overall pick on Yeldon. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein summed him up leading up to the draft.

"Instinctive, athletic running back who has the foot quickness to create for himself when lanes constrict or blocks are missed," Zierlein wrote. "Yeldon lacks the ball security, top-end speed and desired tackle breaking to be a full-time starter. He's a versatile, rotational back with the ability to step in and step up."

Yeldon doesn’t have great speed—he only ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine—but he’s good at toting the ball in crowded situations, weaving and darting through crowds. That could create some problems for the Panthers, who look to be without Star Lotulelei for this one, which would leave a gap up the middle.

The Jaguars’ best run-blocker last season was right guard Brandon Linder. Add in free-agent offensive lineman Jermey Parnell at right tackle and Stefen Wisniewski at center, and the Jaguars have the makings of a solid rushing attack. If they hit the Panthers where Lotulelei isn’t, it could become the job of the linebackers to step up and stop Yeldon before he can gain significant yardage.

Fortunately, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are two of the best linebackers in football, and Shaq Thompson was promising enough to use a first-round pick on in this past year’s draft. They’ll likely be flying around and trying to prevent Yeldon from moving the ball past the second level.

It is worth noting that the Jaguars ripped off 15 running plays of 20 yards or more, fourth-most in the league last year. It’s hard to see them doing that too regularly with Davis, Kuechly and Thompson in on the base package, but the Panthers did allow eight such runs up the middle last season, more than any other team in football.

The Jaguars would probably be best off directly attacking the Panthers’ injury on the defensive line and hoping Yeldon can plow through to the second level, rather than try to bounce things to the outside and let Kuechly and Davis’ speed run them down before they can turn the corner.

This will also be an important game for Carolina’s pass rush. Under pressure last season, no quarterback completed a lower percentage of his passes than Blake Bortles, according to PFF. Bortles was 43-of-118 passing under pressure, absorbing 55 sacks and throwing eight interceptions.

He was victimized by his receivers dropping passes—13 of them, according to PFF, the most in football—but even if they were all complete passes, he’d still have the third-worst completion percentage under pressure.

Last season, Bortles seemed to panic when opposing teams brought pressure, and by the end of the season, he had developed some happy feet. That seemed to affect his play even when he wasn’t under pressure. At the end of last season, it got to the point where Bortles was forcing the ball to his hot reads when the opposing defense hinted at pressure, whether or not they rushed extra men.

The Panthers would like that to continue, which is why it’s important for Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy to generate pressure off the edges. If they can get Bortles flashing back to the league-leading 55 sacks he suffered last season and make him flee from pressure before it arrives again, they’ll force Bortles to be scatter-armed and ineffective.

We have yet to actually see Johnson play, as he’s recovering from calf and trap injuries that cost him the entire preseason. Will he be at full speed right away, or will he take a week or two to get up to speed? That has to be a major concern for the Panthers.

Ealy, on the other hand, looked sharp in preseason. He picked up two sacks, a pair of quarterback hits and five hurries, according to PFF. He had a strong finish to last season. If he can keep that momentum going into the regular season, then the Panthers might have the secondary pass-rushing threat they sorely lacked last year.

Key Players and Matchups

Jacksonville RB T.J. Yeldon

With Bortles still developing, the Jaguars know they’ll have to rely on their running game to generate offensive success in 2015. They also need Yeldon to produce this season because he’s the top pick remaining from this year’s draft class, since Dante Fowler Jr. was lost for the season in the first offseason practice.

While Carolina had a top defense last season, it was much stronger against the pass than the rush, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. A Jaguars upset will have to feature plenty of Yeldon, taking advantage of Lotulelei’s injury and the improved offensive line to keep the Jags in manageable situations while taking pressure off of Bortles and the passing offense.

Carolina RT Mike Remmers

Pass-rushers Ryan Davis and Chris Clemons will challenge Remmers in Gus Bradley’s Seattle-like system. The last time we saw Remmers in a game that counted, Seattle’s Michael Bennett was owning him. Bennett is more talented than Davis or Clemons at this point, but Remmers will be looking to have a better night against a similar defensive scheme.

With the Jaguars’ relative weakness last season defending runs to the right, Remmers should also be busy in run blocking, paving lanes for Stewart and Newton. If he can regularly win the battle to seal the edges, the Panthers will have a much easier time going forward.

Carolina DE Charles Johnson

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Will we see the Charles Johnson who was Carolina’s leading pass-rusher last season, dominating offensive tackles and putting up 72 quarterback pressures, per PFF? Or will the injury issues continue to plague him, keeping him on the bench and out of action?

While the Panthers have high hopes that Ealy can take the next step forward and provide a consistent pass-rushing option from the other side, Johnson’s still the team's only proven option. If he’s not at full strength, the Jaguars will have a much easier time in this one than they normally would.

Carolina LB Shaq Thompson

Thompson will get his first NFL start this week, according to Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer. After missing a significant portion of the offseason and preseason with school and injuries, Thompson has won the starting job over A.J. Klein, though expect to see Klein come in on obvious rushing downs.

Also expect the Jaguars to challenge Thompson in the run game. Thompson was a hybrid linebacker and safety at Washington, so while his pass-coverage skills are already above average for his position, his run defense is still a bit of a work in progress.

He’s certainly the linebacker to target, when your other options are All-Pros like Kuechly and Davis. The Panthers hope Thompson can rise to the occasion and be a stud starter right off the bat.

Jacksonville DE Chris Clemons

The Panthers are still crossing their fingers that the solid preseason offensive tackle play of Oher and Remmers will continue, because they had troubles all last season with protection around the edges. Their first regular-season test will come from the pass rush of the veteran Clemons, free-agent acquisition Jared Odrick and Ryan Davis.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way—both rookie Dante Fowler and scheduled starter Andre Branch will miss this game with injuries. That puts the pressure on the shoulders of the reserves, especially Clemons.

Clemons was much more effective when rested last season, and the plan for this year has him coming in primarily on pass-rushing downs. If the Panthers can’t get decent gains on first and second down, expect Clemons to come in, pin his ears back and try to rush straight past Oher to pressure Newton. If that matchup goes Jacksonville’s way, it could be a long day for Carolina.

Prediction

Jacksonville will upset the Panthers, less because of Jacksonville’s strengths and more because of Carolina’s injury question marks.

The offense will be one-dimensional. Brown and Ginn won’t strike fear into the Jaguars defense, allowing Jacksonville to fill the box and try to stop Stewart cold. During last season’s winning streak, Benjamin was able to keep opposing defenses at least a little bit honest. Brown and Ginn are intriguing deep threats, but the Panthers offense will not have enough time to set up bombs. It might be Olsen and nothing else for the Panthers’ passing attack.

I’m also not yet convinced Oher is the answer at left tackle. He’s looked all right in preseason against vanilla defenses, but it’s been years since he’s been a solid option in the regular season. It'd be great to see him have a solid performance in an actual game before declaring him the answer at left tackle.

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The injuries on defense are worrisome, too. Lotulelei’s absence will hurt, as it’s quite a precipitous step down to Colin Cole, Kyle Love and Dwan Edwards. The fact that it corresponds with Jacksonville’s hopes for an up-the-middle power rushing attack hurts as well.

Charles Johnson not at full strength is also concerning. He might need a game or two to get into game shape. These aren’t long-term concerns, but they could be the difference in Week 1.

Even with all of those negatives, it's still tempting to pick the Panthers. The Panthers, as they were at the end of last season, would have beaten the Jags on the road by a touchdown. To predict the Jaguars to pull the upset, you have to believe that Jacksonville has gotten better over this offseason and that Carolina’s injuries will cause them to start slowly.

This game could easily go either way, and my natural pessimistic nature might have me seeing all the flaws Carolina has and ignoring the general lack of quality in Jacksonville. Still, this game will be closer than many predict, and I’d rather be pessimistic and surprised than optimistic and disappointed.

Final score: Jaguars 20, Panthers 17

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.