Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs begin this season on the road, where they've been a solid bet of late, going 11-5 against the spread the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are just 5-11 ATS at home the last two years. In a battle of AFC playoff hopefuls the Chiefs and Texans hook up in Houston Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.5-19.7 Texans

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is coming off a 9-7 campaign, although it missed the playoffs, in its second season under head coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs got to 7-3 last season but suffered three tough road losses by a combined two scores during a 2-4 finish, as the injury bug took a bite, particularly on defense.

Still, Kansas City is 20-12 SU and 19-13 ATS under Reid, including an 11-5 ATS record on the road.

The Chiefs own the edge in the quarterback comparison for this game, have a healthy top-tier running back in Jamaal Charles and should be improved on defense. A Kansas City victory here won't be regarded as an upset.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston bounced back from going 2-14 in 2013 to 9-7 last year, just missing out on a playoff berth. The Texans did that in their first season under new head coach Bill O'Brien, with zero help from the No. 1 overall pick in the draft Jadeveon Clowney, while having to start four different players at quarterback.

Houston ranked fifth in the league in rushing last year, 10th against the run and fifth in average time of possession, and outrushing your opponents and holding on to the ball are great ways to win games and cover spreads in the NFL, as shown by the Texans' 9-6-1 ATS mark last season.

Houston hopes to catch some of the mojo quarterback Brian Hoyer flashed with Cleveland, and while running back Arian Foster is hurt (again), backup Alfred Blue has shown some ability, including a 156-yard effort against the Browns last year.

Smart pick

This is a tough one because, while Kansas City owns the check mark at quarterback, Houston gets it on defense. And in cases like this, with two such evenly matched teams, the smart money usually resides with the better defense.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs in September.

The total has gone under in five of the Chiefs' last six games on the road.

The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the AFC West.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.