Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons will begin the season as home underdogs when they host the Philadelphia Eagles in the first game of the Monday night doubleheader this week. The Falcons were disappointing in 2014 but have performed well against the spread in the role of home dogs over the past two years with a 4-1 mark despite going 2-3 straight up.

Point spread: Eagles opened as one-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.3-26.8 Eagles

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

The Eagles roster has been molded by head coach Chip Kelly, and fans and bettors will find out this year if he really knows what he’s doing at the professional level. There’s no doubt Kelly is a brilliant offensive mind, and his personnel on that side of the ball has changed dramatically since the end of last season. He will have a new starting quarterback in Sam Bradford and a pair of new running backs in DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.

The big question is, will they all be able to run Kelly’s fast-paced offense like he wants? If they can, they will not only win games but also cover them with ease.

Last year, Philadelphia got off to a 5-1 start both SU and against the spread before faltering down the stretch and just missing the playoffs. There’s no reason the new-look Eagles can’t do the same thing starting with this road game at Atlanta.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

It seems so long ago when the Falcons won the NFC West and hosted the conference championship game, coming within a touchdown of getting to the Super Bowl. That happened back in 2012, but the last couple years were bad enough to cost head coach Mike Smith his job.

The new man in charge is Dan Quinn, who was the defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks for the past two seasons. The change is good because defense was a big problem for the team last year, especially in losing four of its last five at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta surrendered an average of more than 26 points in those games and will have to do much better than that to have a shot at upsetting Philly. The Falcons have won their last four home games against NFC East opponents, though.

Smart pick

Neither defense will be able to stop the opposing offenses in this matchup, making the over an easy play here. The over is 3-0 in the past three meetings between the teams and 4-1 in the last five September games played by the Eagles.

While Quinn may eventually be able to turn Atlanta’s defense around, he will not be able to make that happen overnight. Plus, Philly’s defense remains a weakness and will give up a lot of points, too. Even with such a high number, look for the total to fly over.

Betting trends

The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites in September.

The total has gone under in nine of the Falcons' last 12 games.

The Falcons are 4-0 SU in their last four games against the NFC East at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.