MLB Playoff Picture: Biggest Problem Facing Every Postseason Contender
As the hunt for October begins to gain steam, it's time to take a look at some of the problems still facing MLB postseason contenders.
Now, some of the problems might be minor ones, but in a one-game playoff or five-game series, anything can happen in baseball. We saw what happened last season when two wild-card teams made it all the way to the World Series. All it takes is for a team to get hot at the right time and the dreams of a Fall Classic can quickly slip away.
Some teams have just about locked up a playoff berth—as long as they can avoid an epic collapse, especially in the National League. The American League has quite the wild-card race on its hands, however, and two divisions that are still up for grabs.
The following slides will take a look at the teams that can realistically make the playoffs, what problems the teams may have and how they might be able to fix them. The list is in order of the current wild-card standings as of Tuesday night, starting with the American League.
Excluded from the list are the Cleveland Indians and the Tampa Bay Rays, who both sit three games below .500. The Indians are still a little too young, and the Rays have too many games remaining against other AL East teams.
The San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals have also been left off the list after some brutal losses of late.
The Giants lost seven straight entering the month before finally picking up a win on Sept. 5, and they are nine games back of the wild card.
The Nats have blown leads in their last four losses, including three straight 5-3 advantages that led to 8-5 losses. Most recently, Washington blew a 7-1 lead to lose 8-7 to the New York Mets on Tuesday night, which placed them six games back in the NL East. Brutal.
With that, let's get started before Matt Harvey reaches his innings limit.
Toronto Blue Jays
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It almost seems like the only problem the Toronto Blue Jays have is the uncertainty of whether or not they'll be able to stay hot.
Toronto hasn't tasted the postseason since 1993 but has had everything seemingly come together at the right time this year. The result? A 1.5-game lead in the AL East. That all could change in the upcoming days, as the Jays travel to New York for a four-game set and play the Yankees three more times later in the month.
So what, if anything, is a problem? Toronto's offense has been on fire and its defense has been solid. Though the addition of David Price has been a huge strength to the bullpen, pitching is the biggest uncertainty for the Jays.
After Price, Drew Hutchison has a 5.07 ERA despite a 13-3 record, and R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are well past their primes. A small red flag came up with Buehrle, who was rocked for five runs in 3.1 innings in his last start against the Red Sox.
As reported by the National Post's John Lott, Buehrle will receive a cortisone shot and have his next start pushed back until Tuesday.
"Buehrle has returned to Toronto for a cortisone shot in left shoulder. No big deal, Gibbons says. Those shots are “like candy,” he says.
— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) September 8, 2015"
However, the Jays already have an answer for Buehrle and for their starting rotation in general.
Twenty-four-year-old Marcus Stroman, who was expected to miss the entire season after tearing his ACL in March, will make his season debut against the Yankees on Saturday, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).
Stroman went 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 26 appearances in his rookie campaign last season and was electric at times. If he can find his footing after a couple of starts this month, Stroman could be a huge boost to the starting rotation come October.
Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals have a 12-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central and have the second-best record in all of baseball.
But before beating those same Twins on Tuesday, the Royals had lost four straight games and struggled to find any sort of rhythm on the mound.
As of Monday, Kansas City still had the best bullpen ERA in the entire league at 2.46, but it allowed 11 runs in 15 innings in the losing streak. Things weren't too much better in the earlier innings, with starters compiling an ERA of 8.57.
The Royals still have that same gritty lineup we saw play in the World Series last year and the bullpen just happened to hit a rough patch.
The biggest problem of late has actually been with the Royals' most recent acquisition—Johnny Cueto. The righty has allowed 21 runs in 20 innings in his last four starts, the last of which resulted in five runs in just three innings in a 7-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
Thankfully, time is on the Royals' side, and that will be the best way to fix Cueto's current struggles. He'll have about five more starts before the postseason. Without the added pressure of playing for a playoff spot, the Kansas City coaching staff won't have to worry about doing some tinkering to try to get Cueto over this hump.
Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros have a slew of young stars with speed and talent that have propelled the team to a pennant race for the first time in about a decade.
Houston has certainly been fun to watch and holds a one-game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Trouble is, the Astros play the Rangers seven more times and the Los Angeles Angels (5.5 games back) six more times. Their spot in the postseason certainly isn't set in stone.
The Astros are another team that is waiting for a trade acquisition to play to its potential. Carlos Gomez has yet to really find his stride, hitting just .231/.273/.331 in 34 games as of Monday. On the mound, Scott Kazmir is 2-5 with the Astros after losing his game on Tuesday night. The lefty gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings.
The only thing going for Houston is that the team does not have a losing record in each of the previous five months of the season and has been in first place for all but eight days dating all the way back to April 19.
For whatever reason, the pressure has yet to get to the young stars on the Astros, and if the aforementioned veterans get going, Houston should be able to hang on.
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New York Yankees
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For a team that seemed to be clicking on all cylinders in early August, the New York Yankees have been hit hard by the injury bug at the worst time. Still, the Bronx Bombers have been hanging on to their wild-card spot and trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 1.5 games in the AL East.
First baseman Mark Teixeira managed to avoid a typically slow start to the season but landed on the disabled list after fouling a pitch off his leg. As MLB.com's Bryan Hoch reported Tuesday, GM Brian Cashman fears the slugger might not return this season.
"Mark Teixeira had two more injections to calm nerve issues in his leg. Still on crutches. Cashman: "I do wonder" if Tex will return in 2015.
— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 8, 2015"
On the mound, the Yankees had to shut down one of their best pitchers on Monday, as reported by Sports Radio 66 WFAN beat writer Sweeny Murti.
"Nathan Eovaldi is being shut down for 2 weeks with elbow inflammation. Still 4 weeks until playoffs, hope is he is back before that.
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) September 7, 2015"
Eovaldi has a 14-3 record and 4.20 ERA this season.
For now, New York will have to rely on its alternates. Adam Warren will most likely rejoin the starting rotation, which will welcome back CC Sabathia on Wednesday and now rely on rookie Luis Severino and ace Masahiro Tanaka to be brilliant.
At the dish, rookie Greg Bird has filled in decently at first base, including what proved to be the game-winning three-run home run against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The Yanks will also rely on the continued surprise season from Alex Rodriguez, who belted his 30th homer of the season on Tuesday night.
Should the Yankees limp into October, the return of Eovaldi and Teixeira could be vital for postseason success.
Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers hold the second wild-card spot and sit just one game back of the Houston Astros in the AL West.
The Rangers have done all of this almost quietly and have managed to find some consistency in their offense. The problem has been with pitching, as Texas ranks 25th in the league in team ERA.
However, Cole Hamels might be just what the doctor ordered to fix that. Hamels picked up the win in a 9-6 victory over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday and had a 3.89 ERA in his six previous starts with the team.
Derek Holland has also been solid, with a 2.37 ERA as of Monday, while Colby Lewis and Yovani Gallardo have been reliable. Hamels knows how to get the job done in the clutch and could be the straw that helps to stir the Rangers' drink in getting to the postseason.
Minnesota Twins
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The Minnesota Twins sit 2.5 games back of the second wild-card spot and have managed to turn some heads this season with their young lineup.
What hasn't really separated itself from the pack is the starting rotation, which has just one pitcher with 10 wins this season. The staff has been average and often relies on the defense to make plays throughout the game.
What has helped that has been a new realignment in the outfield that debuted on Saturday. The trio of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks provides range, arm strength and a young fire that could turn into one of the best squads in the league someday. That is, of course, if they can hit.
Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles of Anaheim sit 4.5 games back of the second wild-card spot and 5.5 games back in the AL West.
The biggest problem that recently befell the Angels was the slump of their best player, Mike Trout. Trout struggled mightily in August, hitting just .218 with one home run and seven runs driven in. That's a staunch comparison to his .367 average in July.
Teams will still try to avoid Trout the best they can and will do the same with slugger Albert Pujols. A resurgence of Trout would obviously be the best help for the Angels, but so too would a hot bat from Kole Calhoun.
Calhoun already has a career best with 22 home runs, 71 RBI and 141 hits and could continue to find success if opponents attack him instead.
New York Mets
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The New York Mets hold a six-game lead over the Washington Nationals in the National League East. Yes, those are the facts, even though it's September.
The Mets have faced some slumps this season, but the Nationals haven't been able to take advantage. That could be seen in their most recent matchup on Tuesday, when the Nats blew a 7-1 lead to New York and ended up losing 8-7.
New York has established one of the best starting rotations in baseball but faced a recent struggle when questions regarding one of its aces surfaced.
As CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported, Matt Harvey's agent, Scott Boras, noted that his client would follow the 180 innings limit recommended by the doctor for Harvey's first season back after Tommy John surgery.
Harvey took to The Players' Tribune on Sunday to say he'll pitch in the playoffs, but his use for the rest of the season is in doubt. He was rocked in the 8-7 win on Tuesday and will most likely pitch just one or two more times before the postseason, which could significantly effect his rhythm.
The Mets can't afford for this to be a distraction, but it hasn't seemed to derail their offense, which has scored the most runs in all of baseball since the All-Star break. You read that correctly.
A lineup that was a laughing stock in the first half of the season and once featured John Mayberry Jr. at cleanup is now the best in baseball. Who needs the Dark Knight anyway.
St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball and hold a 4.5-game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central.
Despite losing ace Adam Wainwright for the entire season, St. Louis has managed to put together the best ERA in all of baseball and has ridden that for most of the season.
If anything, the only struggles that the Cardinals have faced have been in the batting lineup, which has been riddled with some injuries throughout the season.
Matt Holliday hasn't played since the end of July, and first base was a problem—that is, until Brandon Moss finally found his stride.
Thankfully, the Cardinals can afford to move some players around the lineup to make sure that they're ready to go come October.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have an 8.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the NL West and should find themselves back in the postseason, barring an epic collapse.
The Dodgers have two pitchers who are in the discussion for Cy Young in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Kershaw has basically been the best pitcher in the game since the All-Star break, posting an 8-1 record with a 0.98 ERA over his last 13 starts.
Problem is, both pitchers have had to be brilliant.
The LA bullpen has been shaky and has blown games for both Kershaw and Greinke several times this year. The other starters have been average, while Mat Latos hasn't impressed since joining the team. He has a 6.56 ERA in his five starts with the Dodgers and hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of them.
Another problem for LA is Kershaw's struggles under the bright lights of October. For his 11 postseason starts, Kershaw is 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA. In his last four starts against the Cardinals in October, he's 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA.
So, how do you fix that? The offense will have to step up, for one, and Dodgers fans better start getting used to keeping their fingers crossed. Though Greinke is a solid option in October, Los Angeles will need Kershaw to be at his best as well, lest he be seen as the Peyton Manning of baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates hold the first spot in the National League Wild Card and appear poised for another return to the postseason.
Overall, the Pirates are solid at the plate and on the mound but have struggled at times against lesser teams this season, including a 5-10 record against the last-place Cincinnati Reds.
But really, it seems like their biggest problem is playing in a division with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. All three teams have made a habit of beating up on each other all season, and having the third-best record in all of baseball could still mean that Pittsburgh's season could rest on a one-game playoff.
Should that be the case, the Pirates wouldn't hate having Francisco Liriano on the mound. Not only did the lefty pick up the win against the Reds on Tuesday, but the Buccos have won 12 of his last 13 starts.
Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs have the second spot in the NL Wild Card for now but trail the Pittsburgh Pirates by just two games for first.
Chicago has impressed this season and has come out even harder of late, using its young bats and strong pitching to put together 80 wins. The Cubs are fun to watch, and their success is great for the game of baseball.
Much like the Pirates, however, the Cubs' biggest problem is that their season could potentially come to an end in the blink of an eye because of a loss in the Wild Card Game.
Thankfully, Jake Arrieta has stepped up as the surefire ace to pitch in that game. The righty has allowed just two runs in his last seven starts, which included a no-hitter against the Dodgers, and was named NL Pitcher of the Month for August.
With a young lineup to complement the starting pitching, the Cubs would be a hard team to beat in October, especially in Wrigley Field.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
You can talk more baseball with John on Twitter here.
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