How Indianapolis Colts Can Adapt to Early-Season Injuries

Injuries are a part of football.

The sport is a violent one, and this preseason has been a reminder. Stars have been lost for the season, some without even a touch of contact—hello, Jordy. The human body is frail, and everybody involved in the NFL is susceptible to missing time at any moment.

The Indianapolis Colts are very used to this concept, being one of the most injured teams in the league annually.

Over the last six years, the Colts have finished in the bottom five in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost metric, which measures—as you might have guessed—games lost due to injuries. Per Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders:

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With Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, we are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements, and important situational reserves matter more than injuries to benchwarmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability, which is why AGL is not based strictly on whether or not the player is active for the game, but instead is based on the player's listed status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable, or probable).

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The Colts, thanks to things like Vick Ballard and Donald Thomas' season-ending injuries in 2013 and 2014, Reggie Wayne's season-ending injury in 2013 or Arthur Jones and Gosder Cherilus' injuries last season, have seen all of the aspects of this concept.

Over those six years of bottom-five injury "luck," the Colts have the most total games lost due to injury at 573.1. According to the Colts Authority, that's nearly 200 more than the average team over that span.

So far, it looks like 2015 will be no different.

The team already cut Cherilus this offseason due to a slow recovery from last year's injuries. Last weekend, the Colts placed starting defensive tackle and leader Arthur Jones on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Dan Herron was waive-injured on Sunday due to a shoulder injury suffered in the final preseason game.

Injuries affect everything, especially those suffered right before the season begins by players who figured to be key contributors early on.

While we've already talked about how the Colts will use Jack Mewhort to replace Cherilus on the offensive line this year, how the Colts rebound from these most recent injuries could dictate the tone with which Indianapolis starts the season.

Defensive Line: Arthur Jones Down Again

It's not anybody's fault that the Arthur Jones contract hasn't worked out thus far, but the fact that it's been a massive disappointment is indisputable for now.

Jones signed a five-year, $33 million contract last offseason but suffered a high right ankle sprain in Week 2 that caused him to miss seven of the next eight games. Even after he returned, the injury continued to hamper his play.

While he did affect the game in some more unnoticed ways, he finished the regular season with a grade of minus-10.2 from Pro Football Focus, the second-lowest mark for any Colts defender.

That's not necessarily indicative of his standing among Colts defenders, given his role in the defense, but it is an indication of too many negative plays on his end, with some fault going to his injured ankle.

But is a hurt Arthur Jones better than no Arthur Jones at all?

It would certainly seem so, and the Colts are about to find out, having placed Jones on IR this weekend—and not designated him for return. NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported that Jones will miss the season with another ankle injury, this one on his left side.

The biggest impact this would seem to make is on the run defense.

According to Mike Wells of ESPN.com, the Colts allowed 4.67 yards per carry when Jones was off the field compared to 3.73 yards per carry when he was on the field, despite the former Baltimore Raven's less than stellar play.

While he didn't have nearly the same impact in the pass rush, that kind of presence will be difficult to replace against the run.

Rookie Henry Anderson will likely take the place of Jones in the Colts' base defense, but at an even 300  pounds, the former Stanford Cardinal is about 20 pounds lighter than Jones—even after Colts.com's Kevin Bowen reported that Jones slimmed down by 20 pounds this offseason.

Anderson is more naturally suited for a 5-technique defensive end role, rather than Jones' 3-technique role.

To help, rookie David Parry could slide over into that role at times as well, as the depth at the spot was depleted when the Colts also cut 350-pound Montori Hughes over the weekend. Parry is a little stouter than Anderson at 310 pounds but will also be playing starting nose tackle with the release of Josh Chapman.

Newly claimed defensive lineman T.Y. McGill is also roughly 300 pounds, giving the Colts much less bulk than they once had on the defensive line. Zach Kerr, who can play both nose and defensive tackle, is now the heaviest player left of the group (334 pounds).

The move toward a smaller, quicker defensive line could hint toward the team playing with more four-lineman sets or simply more of a nickel base defense.

The Colts already incorporated four-man "over" alignments, but including more of a variety this year would not be surprising with their current personnel.

With that said, the onus is really on Anderson, who was highly touted coming out of Stanford but is now thrust into a bit of a miscast role.

He will be relied upon to be disruptive but also consistent. The rookie ended up on the ground and misdirected too often at Stanford, something the Colts won't be able to afford if he is at the point of attack on power runs as that 3-technique defensive tackle.

Backing Up Gore: Goodbye Boom

The Colts unceremoniously waive-injured Herron on Sunday, and seeing him go unclaimed on waivers led to his move to injured reserve on Monday. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, however, the Colts and Herron will agree to an injury settlement, allowing Herron to hit free agency.

The injury Herron suffered in the final preseason game was a minor one (sprained AC joint), but by releasing Herron, the Colts will allow him to find work elsewhere or be available to re-sign with Indianapolis once his shoulder clears.

Given that he went unclaimed on waivers, there's a chance that he returns back to Indianapolis at some point this season.

But until that point, it will be up to rookie Josh Robinson and oft-injured Vick Ballard to replace Herron as Frank Gore's backup. While this job is mostly a handcuff for 32-year-old Gore, there are some rotational duties that will have to be taken, as the team would like to limit the veteran's workload.

The team thinks the world of Ballard, as evidenced by the fact that he made the roster despite injuring his hamstring three times over the last few weeks.

Ballard's torn ACL and torn Achilles over the last two seasons are sure to affect him and make future injuries even more concerning, but for now, the Colts believe in his talent, per Zach Keefer of the Indianapolis Star:

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"You're going to pump the brakes before you let someone with that talent walk out the door," [general manager Ryan] Grigson said. "(His recent injuries) are minor dings, not majors."

Along with Ballard, the Colts boast two rookie runners on the roster in Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga who've yet to take an NFL snap. All three will back up starter Frank Gore.

"When you look at it, you have Vick Ballard, who's had his obvious bumps but has shown in this preseason, in a small sample size, that he's a starter-caliber runner," Grigson said.

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Both Ballard and Robinson are versatile enough to play in those passing situations where the Colts will be looking for a substitute—both catching the ball out of the backfield and picking up the blitz.

But both also suffered injuries in the back half of the preseason, and their status for Sunday's game against Buffalo is unknown. Ballard has his hamstring, while Robinson just returned to practice from a concussion on Monday, per Bowen.

If the two cannot go, the job will be left to rookie Tyler Varga, an undrafted free agent from Yale.

Varga earned his spot on the roster with a few dazzling plays in the final two preseason games, especially with his moves in space to earn first downs catching the ball out of the backfield. Whether or not he can do it against a starting NFL defense—especially one like Buffalo's—remains to be seen, but there is certainly potential there.

There are a few other injuries that will impact Sunday's game, most notably cornerback Greg Toler's neck injury. He has yet to return to practice and does not seem likely to play.

This will push another young player into the fold, whether it's rookie D'Joun Smith (third-round pick out of Florida Atlantic) or Jalil Brown (fifth-year player who has bounced around practice squads and rosters).

While Smith has more potential, Bowen reported that Brown stood out in training camp and the preseason and may get the first look at the field as Smith continues to adjust to the NFL. Bowen reported that Smith also didn't practice on Monday.

Either way, there will be quite a few inexperienced and young players seeing the field on Sunday. This is the reality for the new Indianapolis Colts, albeit one that they are not completely unfamiliar with.