Steelers vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?

Thursday night's NFL season-opener will begin with a banner dedicating the New England Patriots' Super Bowl XLIX championship.  However, the Pats are hardly the same team that walked off the confetti-laden field in Glendale last February, as numerous offseason personnel changes have created a distinctly new look for the 2015 squad.

Thus, predicting the Pats' schematic approach against the Pittsburgh Steelers is a dicey undertaking at best.  Bill Belichick likes to experiment with unforeseen looks and personnel combinations early in the year, as readers may recall from last season's Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins.  After that loss, I noted the general sense of bewilderment that surrounded some of Belichick's decisions that afternoon (pure 3-4 looks, starting Jordan Devey at right guard, etc.).

That's not to suggest Belichick will haphazardly throw out unexpected wrinkles, but rather to highlight how the Patriots' thinking doesn't always jive with conventional wisdom.  Keep that caveat in mind as you read through the game plan that, at least on paper, should make the most sense for New England this week.

Offensive Game Plan

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The most obvious avenue of attack will be through the air.  Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which measures opponent-adjusted success rate, the Steelers finished 30th against the pass in 2014.  The retirements of crumbling leaders Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor may have been cases of addition by subtraction, but this is still a secondary relying on replacement-level vets (William Gay, Will Allen) and disappointing youngsters (Cortez Allen, Shamarko Thomas).

However, while Tom Brady should have his way with the Pittsburgh defense when given adequate protection, there's no guarantee the Steelers front seven doesn't do just enough to disrupt New England's offensive rhythm.  Zone-blitz savant Dick LeBeau left this offseason, allowing understudy Keith Butler to ascend to the defensive coordinator role.  While Butler will keep the core of LeBeau's system in place, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler relayed Butler's desire for more aggressive 3-4 principles, particularly when rushing the passer:

"

The defense needed a spark after finishing 26th in sacks, tied for 25th in interceptions and 27th in passing yards allowed last season.

Since being promoted, Butler has been crafting a defense that relies on Steelers staples -- 3-4 formation, dropping both safeties into coverage -- while bringing new ideas, such as getting defensive ends more one-on-one opportunities and various linebacker blitz packages.

"

In theory, Butler's defense should resemble the one-gapping 3-4 schemes that have become more popular in recent years (such as the one Wade Phillips runs in Denver), rather than the more traditional two-gapping 3-4 concepts LeBeau relied on.  Thus, how New England's unsettled interior line performs against the likes of Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt on the interior could play a large role in Brady's own performance.

We also shouldn't necessarily expect Brady to carry the entire offensive load.  Pittsburgh's porous pass defense invites itself to a lopsided run-pass ratio, but with injuries throughout the offense leaving the unit at less than full strength, it seems unwise to willingly acquiesce to a one-dimensional approach.  An effective running game (which can also eat away at possession time for Pittsburgh's own high-powered offense) might be more consequential than many expect from a Patriots perspective.

But with LeGarrette Blount suspended, the Pats currently harbor the least experienced running back corps in the league.  The four backs on the roster—Brandon Bolden, James White, Travaris Cadet and Dion Lewis—have combined for just 195 career carries.  For perspective, 18 running backs in 2014 exceeded that total on their own.  According to ESPN Stats & Info's internal database, only four teams lost a higher percentage of their 2014 running back snaps this offseason.  Unlike Philadelphia or Indianapolis, however, the Pats didn't add a veteran capable of soaking up those lost snaps:

Rank	Team	% Snaps Lost	Snaps Returning	FA RB Snaps Added
1	Philadelphia Eagles	71%	355	945
2	Dallas Cowboys	66%	409	711
3	Atlanta Falcons	61%	494	17
4	Indianapolis Colts	60%	583	646
5	New England Patriots	53%	630	148

The Patriots' figure is technically higher for this week without Blount but isn't included in the data since the vet will be back after the Steelers game.  Nevertheless, the Patriots are undeniably playing with fire when it comes to the running back position, especially after cutting Jonas Gray earlier this week.  If the ground game can simply force the Steelers' base personnel to respect the threat of a run, that could potentially open up mismatches for New England's versatile tight ends.

Defensive Game Plan

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

With Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant both suspended, the Patriots get the benefit of focusing their attention on the player who figures to occupy a disproportionately large fraction of Pittsburgh's offensive game plan.  Unfortunately, that player, Antonio Brown, has repeatedly proven himself as one of the league's most unrestrainable weapons over the past two seasons.

Most fans know about Brown's remarkable 33-game streak with at least five catches and 50 yards, but that's certainly not the result of Ben Roethlisberger force-feeding the ball to his top receiver.  Brown is the league's most slippery route-runner, a fact the analytics back up. 

Football Outsiders keeps a receiving stat called plus-minus, which measures how many catches above or below average a receiver should catch based on his average depth of target.  Plus-minus is a good way of tracking receiver efficacy because, although deep threats will typically have worse catch rates than slot receivers, the increased degree of difficulty on their catches slants the playing field.  Based on plus-minus, no receiver accumulated more catches above average than Brown in 2014:

Rank	Player	Team	+/-	Catch %
1	Antonio Brown	PIT	16.5	73.7%
2	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	16.3	72.7%
3	Kenny Stills	NO	15.5	79.7%
4	T.Y. Hilton	IND	11.9	68.3%
5	Jordy Nelson*	GB	11.6	69.0%
6	Odell Beckham	NYG	11.1	71.1%
7	Brandin Cooks	NO	9.7	82.8%
8	Jarvis Landry	MIA	8.7	81.6%
9	Randall Cobb	GB	8.4	72.8%
10	Malcom Floyd	SD	7.2	62.7%

Plus-minus is a volume stat, so Brown's obscene target total (181 in 2014) plays a role in that figure.  Nevertheless, Brown is the type of player who defies any single coverage schemes.  More likely, the Patriots will play something like quarters or Cover 6, schemes which allow the defense to have a safety topping Brown to protect the cornerback.

No matter what New England does, though, Brown will wiggle his way free unless the front seven can sufficiently harass Ben Roethlisberger.  Paradoxically, the key to containing Roethlisberger is not necessarily creating pressure, as Big Ben has consistently been one of the league's best quarterbacks when pressured.  Instead, the Patriots might look to disrupt Roethlisberger's timing, which would limit his trademark ability to extend plays and improvise late in the down:

Source: NFL.com

Source: NFL.com

The two screenshots illustrate a play from the last Patriots-Steelers meeting back in Week 9 of the 2013 season.  On 3rd-and-short, the Patriots call a well-disguised drop, as linebacker Brandon Spikes eliminated Roethlisberger's throwing lane on the slant.  Eventually, Big Ben held the ball and became enveloped in the pocket, resulting in a Rob Ninkovich strip-sack to end the possession.

The Pats won't be able to stymie the Steelers passing game on every play, but it's important that they win these types of situational battles.  With DeAngelo Williams touting the rock, Pittsburgh figures to find itself in plenty of unfavorable down-and-distance situations, forcing Roethlisberger into deeper drops and slower-developing reads.  That's often when Big Ben is at his most dangerous, though, so look for Belichick to emphasize containing Roethlisberger in the pocket when possible.

Key Players and Matchups

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much pub in the sections above.  Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory that week.

Patrick Chung: The Patriots never have one player defend the tight end the entire game, but as the Patriots' most proven box safety, Chung figures to draw the majority of the Heath Miller assignment.  Miller has been one of the league's most bankable tight ends over his 10-year career, and though he lacks the explosiveness to threaten defenses down the seams, his chemistry with Roethlisberger will surely come into play early in the year.

Some Pats fans will recall the team's 2011 loss to Pittsburgh, in which the defense covered the perimeter at the expense of allowing Miller to steadily churn away en route to 85 yards on seven receptions.  While the Steelers' diminished corps won't demand the same type of attention this year, Chung and the other box defenders figure to see plenty of work covering the eminently reliable tight end.

Dion Lewis: The surprise winner of New England's passing back competition, Lewis isn't likely to have a long leash given that James White and Travaris Cadet remain on the roster.  However, the fourth-year vet should get a chance to make a strong first impression against a Steelers defense that ranked 22nd defending running backs in the passing game last year, per Football Outsiders.

One thing to watch is whether the Patriots give Lewis all the receiving back snaps, or if they work White and/or Cadet into the mix as well.  If it's the latter, we could see a similar usage to what the Pats had in 2012, when Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen split the passing back snaps the entire season.

Julian Edelman: The former underdog is now entrenched as Tom Brady's most reliable target after two consecutive 100-yard seasons.  However, Pats fans had to have some scary flashbacks this summer when Edelman missed the entire preseason with an ankle injury, as health concerns were the primary limiting factor in the early portion of Edelman's career.

Edelman hasn't appeared on the injury report this week, however, indicating that he should be full speed against Pittsburgh.  "Minitron" figures to see even more targets than usual early in the year while Brandon LaFell remains out, so expect him to remain a chain-moving fulcrum of the passing game.

Jerod Mayo: The forgotten man in New England's strong linebacking corps, Mayo is now the longest-tenured member of the Patriots defense after reworking his contract in the offseason to remain in Foxborough.  After playing just 12 games in two years, there should be significant questions about the sideline-to-sideline range that was once the hallmark of Mayo's game.

Thursday night will be the vet's first chance to assuage those concerns.  Keep an eye on how the Patriots manage his snap count, and if they allow Mayo to occupy the three-down role he's had his whole career, even while Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower proved capable in 2014.

Prediction

On paper, the Patriots still hold the talent edge despite their offseason turnover.  With Brady somewhat surprisingly available, the uncertainty that would have plagued the passing game is no longer an issue.  In theory, it should be business as usual for an offense that has churned out top-five production every year over the past decade.

But Week 1 always presents an element of the unknown, as we can't really know how the names we've studied throughout the offseason will mesh when the product finally shows up on the field.  Truthfully, Belichick is still likely looking for all the answers, and he's unlikely to find them all by Friday morning.

Nevertheless, the New England offense possesses too many different ways to stress the Pittsburgh defense, especially if Gronkowski and Edelman are near full speed despite playing as many preseason contests as you or I.  Brown will inflict his share of damage to the Pats secondary, but it's hard to envision a one-man show doing enough to meaningfully dent the scoreboard unless Pittsburgh's depth players show well.

And though this writer tends to downplay intangibles, it's hard to discount the emotional factor that should be in play at Gillette Stadium.  Emotion won't carry the Patriots too far in 2015, but at least for one night, they should enjoy the relief of taking out their frustrations on another opponent.

Predicted Score: Patriots 32, Steelers 27