MLB Playoff Predictions: How the Final Month Will Shake Up Postseason Picture

Throughout much of the MLB season, two teams have dominated the competition in their respective leagues. The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals may be heading into the final month of the regular season as the hottest clubs in baseball, but there's much to be sorted out in the divisional and wild-card races before the postseason gets underway in October. 

In predicting how the postseason picture will shape up with a month to go, three primary factors were taken into consideration: 

• Current standings
• Key series to watch
• Key players in each race

The focus here is to realistically forecast how each team's play in September will affect its playoff chances. We examine each divisional and wild-card race in both the National and American leagues. 

After laying out all the details, one bold prediction for each race will be made.

Let us know if you agree or disagree with how one writer sees things ending up in 2015. 

NL Wild Card

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Contenders

Pittsburgh Pirates (79-53, 3.5 games up in NL Wild Card); Chicago Cubs (76-57, 7.5 games up in second Wild Card)

The Pirates and Cubs, second and third in the National League Central, respectively, are the clear favorites to play in the Wild Card Game. Both have good enough records to be leading any other NL division. 

The next closest threats to an all-Central Wild Card Game are the San Francisco Giants (7.5 games back) and Washington Nationals (8.0 games back). It seems the only uncertainty right now in this race is who will be the home team in a one-game playoff between the Cubs and Pirates.  

Key Series to Watch

Pirates at Cubs, Sept. 25-27

Pittsburgh and Chicago play twice this month—one series in each city. When they face off toward the end of September, it could foreshadow a potential October rematch in the form of a one-game playoff.

Assuming both teams stay atop the wild-card standings, that series will be huge, to say the least. It'll likely push one team in either direction of getting home-field advantage for the playoff. 

Key Players

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates OF, and Jake Arrieta, Cubs SP

Andrew McCutchen has been raking lately, posting a .320/.449/.553 slash line with almost as many runs (28) as RBI (29) since the All-Star break. The Pirates center fielder was also recently named NL Player of the Month in August as he makes his case for a second MVP. He's been the motor in an average offense that ranks just seventh in the NL in runs scored.

Fresh off a no-hit performance against the Dodgers, Jake Arrieta is quietly having a lights-out second half. The Cubs righty is 6-0 with a 0.74 ERA in his last seven starts and earned NL Pitcher of the Month in August. Come October Arrieta may get the nod in a one-game playoff over fellow ace Jon Lester. 

Bold Prediction

Cubs pull ahead of Pirates

Chicago's perfect blend of young talent and veteran leadership will prevail in September. The Cubs have won four of the last matchups with the Pirates. They also benefit from playing 10 of their 12 games at home, where you can bet a giddy and amped-up Wrigley Field crowd could make the difference in winning that deciding series with Pittsburgh.

NL West

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Contenders

Los Angeles Dodgers (75-58, 1st in NL West); San Francisco Giants (69-65, 6.5 games back)

After a three-game sweep of the Giants at home, the Dodgers find themselves comfortably ahead of their division rival in the NL West.

San Francisco might have the talent and postseason experience to win a string of games in this final month to make the race interesting, though. Having eight of its nine remaining series against teams with losing records doesn't hurt either. 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles has two tough series with the Angels and Pirates in September. 

Key Series to Watch

Dodgers at Giants, Sept. 28-30

This series will likely decide the NL West. It's the only time the Dodgers and Giants face each other again before the postseason—making it that much more important. 

It'll be interesting to see how close the two teams are in the standings at that point. A series win for one club would force the other to miss the postseason—both have worse records than the Cubs and Pirates, the current Wild Card leaders. 

Key Players

Hunter Pence, Giants OF, and Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers SP

If the Giants have their right fielder in the lineup, they are a different team. They are 34-17 record when Hunter Pence starts and a measly 35-48 when he sits.

The 32-year-old has been on the disabled list three times this season, including his current oblique injury that's kept him sidelines since the middle of August. According to Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com, "it's going to be a while" until he comes back.

Clayton Kershaw has been simply dominant since the All-Star break. He's 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 91 strikeouts in just 71 innings in the second half. The left-hander's been so good he's overshadowed his teammate Zack Greinke—the current favorite for NL Cy Young. 

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports put it bluntly: 

"

Clayton Kershaw, since the All-Star Game rosters were announced: 10 starts, 80 IP, 49 H, 7 BB, 104 K, 0.90 ERA. The best then, the best now.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 3, 2015"

Bold Prediction

Dodgers win the West

This is no bold prediction, as it's what many expect to happen. But the Giants shouldn't be taken lightly. Remember, they made a run last season to win the World Series as a wild-card squad and have taken home three of the last five world championships. San Francisco knows how to win when it counts and this month may see ace Madison Bumgarner turn it up a notch. 

And yet the Dodgers will still win the division—they have two of the best pitchers in baseball.

NL East

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Contenders

New York Mets (74-59, 1st in NL East); Washington Nationals (68-65, six games back)

It's been 10 seasons since the Mets took home a divisional crown, but the NL East is theirs to lose in 2015. Their only competition? The reeling Nationals, who lost 12 of 16 games at one point in August—including six in a row. On the other hand, the Mets went 20-8 last month following some key additions at the trade deadline.

Key Series to Watch

Nationals at Mets, Oct. 2-4

The teams will face off in the final series of the season in what could be a dagger to the Nats' playoff hopes. It'll also be the second time the two division rivals see each other in this final month—the Mets travel to Washington on Sept. 7. However, having home-field advantage in this three-game set should favor the Mets—New York fans have been waiting for The Amazins to resurface since 2006. 

Key Players

Yoenis Cespedes, Mets OF, and Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 1B

If the Nationals are to win the NL East, they'll have to ride their hot-hitting veteran to the end. Since returning from the disabled list on July 28, Ryan Zimmerman is slugging at a .661 clip and providing the missing power behind Bryce Harper in the lineup. Over the last 11 games, the first baseman is hitting .405 with seven homers and 23 RBI. 

The Mets found their own missing piece in Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline. Since coming to Queens, the outfielder has anchored the offense in a big way—15 homers and 36 RBI in 44 contests. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out his current hot streak of eight home runs in 13 games prior to Sept. 3.

Bold Prediction

Mets win the NL East

The Nationals could make a run in September—especially with an easy remaining schedule—but the Mets are clicking on all cylinders right now. New York's offense is resurgent with the additions of Cespedes and David Wright, who returned from the DL on Aug. 24. And we haven't even mentioned their dominant pitching staff. Behind Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, the Mets should be able to score just enough runs to win any ballgame in a postseason series. 

NL Central

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Contenders

St. Louis Cardinals (86-47, 1st in NL Central); Pittsburgh Pirates (79-53; 6.5 games back); Chicago Cubs (76-57, 10.0 games back)

Let's face it: There's only one real contender in the NL Central. We already covered the Pirates and Cubs as they battle for the two wild-card spots—but neither will catch the Cardinals. 

St. Louis does face Pittsburgh and Chicago a combined nine more times this season, but it may not matter. The Cards' five other opponents in the final month all have a losing record. 

Key Series to Watch

Cardinals at Pirates, Sept. 28-30

If the Pirates have any shot of catching the Cardinals in the division, it'll come down to this series at the end of the month. They'll be at home in the second of two critical matchups between the two squads in September. Get set for a playoff atmosphere in Pittsburgh with some premier pitching matchups.

Key Players

Cardinals' entire pitching staff

It's remarkable a team that lost its starting ace (Adam Wainwright) still boasts one of history's best pitching staffs. St. Louis' team ERA of 2.67 is the best in MLB by almost half a run and, per Adam Gilfix of the Washington Post, it would make the Cardinals the first club with a sub-3.00 ERA since 1989.

Bold Prediction

Cardinals win the NL Central

Again, this shouldn't come as a surprise to many. The Cardinals have been baseball's best team the entire season and they show no signs of slowing down. The two series against the Pirates could give Pittsburgh a glimmer of hope but that's all it will be. 

AL Wild Card

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Contenders

Toronto Blue Jays (76-58, 1st in AL East); New York Yankees (75-58, 4.5 games up in AL Wild Card); Texas Rangers (70-62, 2.0 games up in second Wild Card); Minnesota Twins (69-65, 2.0 games back of second Wild Card); Los Angeles Angels (67-66, 3.5 games back of second Wild Card)

The American League wild-card race is up for grabs—to put it lightly. 

The Blue Jays and Yankees are only separated by 0.5 games for the AL East title. Whoever comes in second is likely guaranteed a spot in the play-in game. Outside of that, though, is anyone's guess.

There's the surging Rangers, who looked out of it at the All-Star break, and the slumping Angels, who looked comfortable just a month ago. And then the Twins are quietly hanging around. This could make for some entertaining baseball in September.

Key Series to Watch

Angels at Rangers, Oct. 1-4

We'll discuss the Jays-Yanks race in our East prediction, but for now let's focus on the an AL West series at the end of the season that will feature two teams desperately fighting for the last postseason spot.  

The Rangers host the Angels for four games in October in a matchup likely to decide who moves on and who goes home. It doesn't get much better than that. Since the beginning of August, Texas is 20-10 while Los Angeles is 12-19. They are two clubs going in opposite directions at the moment and it could all come down to this series. 

Texas travels to LA on Sept. 4, too—but a lot can happen in a month. Assuming each team stays relevant by then, it'll be interesting to see who clinches the wild-card berth.

Key Players

Miguel Sano, Twins DH, and Kole Calhoun, Angels OF

For the past few years, Angels fan begged for another bat to complement Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in the lineup. Well, they may have a keeper in Kole Calhoun. The 27-year-old has career highs in home runs (21), RBI (69), hits (136) and games played (130) in his now full-time role in the outfield. In the homestretch of the season, Los Angeles will need production from Calhoun when teams choose to pitch around Trout and Pujols.  

Rookie Miguel Sano has been out of this world since being called up in July. As the Twins' primary designated hitter, he's cranked 15 home runs and 42 RBI in just 52 games. And when Sano hits in the cleanup spot, he has a 1.050 OPS. The 22-year-old single-handedly brought power and excitement to a struggling offense and could carry them to the postseason.

Bold Prediction

Angels clinch second Wild Card

Although the Angels have been trending downward lately, they still have one more run in them—as long as Trout gets hot again. The biggest reason the team struggled in August was, ironically, because of Trout. He hit just .218 in the month with just one homer and seven RBI. Yikes! And that's coming off a scorching-hot .367/.462/.861 stat line in July. 

The Rangers might have too many problems with their pitching to pull it off down the stretch. Since the All-Star break, their team ERA of 4.59 ranks 23rd in the majors. 

AL West

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Contenders

Houston Astros (74-61, 1st in AL West); Texas Rangers (70-62, 2.5 games back); Los Angeles Angels (67-66, 6.0 games back)

Back on Aug. 1, the Rangers were eight games behind the West-leading Astros with a sub-.500 record. You couldn't blame anyone for thinking they were out of it. But now? Texas has a winning record and all of a sudden are a threat to win the division. 

In the meantime, the Angels have seemingly lost any chance of winning the West, as they sit six games behind the Astros. It'll be an uphill battle for them this month—that is, if they catch the Rangers in the wild-card race first. 

Key Series to Watch

Rangers at Astros, Sept. 25-27

The Astros have a tough go at it in September. In the span of 16 days, they play Texas seven times and Los Angeles six times—two series each. Their matchup at the end of the month with the Rangers will be their last test in 2015 as they finish out the season against two teams with losing records. 

If the Rangers continue their winning trend—28-16 since the All-Star break—this series could be one to decide the division. 

Key Players

Jose Altuve, Astros 2B, and Carlos Correa, Astros SS

Houston's middle infield anchors its offense right now. Jose Altuve, the AL's reigning batting champ, leads the league in hits (163) and stolen bases (36) and is tied for sixth in batting average (.315). He's also having a torrid second half, hitting .357 with a .401 on-base percentage. Talk about an ideal leadoff hitter.

Then there's Carlos Correa, who, after making his major league debut in June, has already mashed 16 homers and 45 RBI as a strong candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. The Astros are smartly hitting their rookie shortstop third, where's made a nice complement to his double-play partner's on-base wizardry.  

Bold Prediction

Astros win the AL West

Yep, not too bold, but the Astros have been just too consistent lately. Although the Rangers are in the midst of a solid second half, their division counterparts are no pushovers themselves—Houston is 24-19 since the break. Like the Cubs in the NL, the Astros have one of the best combinations of youth and experience to keep them going into and through October. 

AL East

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Contenders

Toronto Blue Jays (76-58, 1st in AL East); New York Yankees (75-58, 0.5 games back) 

The AL East is the tightest division in baseball. The Blue Jays and Yankees have been trading first place for weeks now and it looks to stay that way for the remainder of the season.  

Key Series to Watch

Yankees at Blue Jays, Sept. 21-23

The Yankees and Blue Jays play each other twice in September, with the final showdown of the season going down down in Toronto. The teams met twice last month as well when the Jays took four of six, including a three-game sweep of the Bronx Bombers at the Rogers Centre. 

You might remember the big acquisitions Toronto made at the trade deadline when they traded for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Well, since July 31, the club is 22-6 after a sub-.500 season beforehand. 

The Jays are a completely different team now and the Yankees found that out the hard way. This series, in Toronto, will be the ultimate test for New York.

Key Players

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 3B, and Brian McCann, Yankees C

Josh Donaldson is the AL MVP right now and there's no one really close—not even Mike Trout. He leads the majors in RBI (111), runs (104), and total bases (304) and is pretty darn close in just about every other major offensive category. He caught everyone's attention last month when he hit 11 homers with a 1.132 OPS in August. So yeah, he's good.

With Mark Teixeira out indefinitely, the Yankees need their catcher to start turning it on. Brian McCann may lead his team in RBI (83) but he's hitting just .211 since the All-Star break. Pay attention to how well McCann does in this final month—it could decide whether New York wins the East or limps into the Wild Card Game.

Bold Prediction

Blue Jays win AL East

Teixeira's prolonged injury comes at a bad time for the Yankees. The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball with an offense that's scored over 80 more runs than any team in baseball. They aren't cooling off anytime soon and the Yankees aren't the team to stay par with them. 

AL Central

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Contenders

Kansas City Royals (82-52, 1st in AL Central)

Is there no one else? No, there actually isn't. Minnesota is the closest of anyone in the Central to catch the Royals—and it's still 13 games back. 

If not for the Cardinals, Kansas City would have the best record in the majors and a 19-9 record in August offers no sign of regression. Baseball Prospectus has them at a 100 percent chance of making the postseason. So there's that. 

Key Series to Watch

Royals at Twins, Oct. 2-4

Hopefully in a month we'll get some clarity as to how real the Twins are and if the Royals slow down at all. This final series of the regular season could end up being a resting tune-up for Kansas City if they keep their large lead in the division. Or, if the Twins turn it up in the final month as they contend for the AL Wild Card, we could see some competitive baseball. For now, it's wait-and-see.

Key Players

Johnny Cueto, Royals SP, and Lorenzo Cain, Royals OF

Lorenzo Cain is one of the hottest hitters in the game. He's hitting an absurd .395 in his last 11 games to go along with his .367/.424/.667 clip from July. The Royals offense depends on how well their star outfielder does. If the best best record in the AL is any indication, it's going pretty well.

Johnny Cueto, the newly acquired Royal, is having a tough time in the AL. He came to Kansas City as the ideal ace to their struggling staff—and he's been anything but. In his past three starts, Cueto has allowed 16 runs in 17 innings and has lost all three of those decisions. He'll have to turn it around in this final month to show the Royals why they went out to get him in the first place. 

Bold Prediction

Royals win the AL Central by 15 games

Kansas City isn't slowing down and no team in their way over the final month will challenge them. Although the Twins could contend for the Wild Card, they have no chance of catching the Royals this season as the Boys in Blue will push their lead in the division to 15 games by the season's end. 

You can follow Dan on Twitter @dan_servodidio. Feel free to hit him up to talk baseball up to and throughout the postseason.