Updated NASCAR Chase Odds: Who'll Round Out the Field of 16?

This week is like the proverbial calm before the storm.

With the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series enjoying its final off-weekend of the season, drivers and teams are enjoying a little “me” time.

But come next Monday, it will be back to serious business as more than a dozen drivers vie to win one of the last two races in the regular season: Sept. 6 at Darlington or Sept. 12 at Richmond.

If a driver who has been winless thus far in 2015 wins one of those races, even if he’s ranked 30th, he or she will earn an invitation to be part of NASCAR’s yearly premier event, the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

In theory, while virtually everyone has a chance to win a race and make the Chase, in reality, only a select few have the likelihood of doing so.

That’s where this story comes in, as we evaluate the eight drivers we believe are most likely to defy the odds and make the Chase.

Drivers that are likely too little, too late to make the Chase include Aric Almirola (25-1), Kyle Larson (30-1), AJ Allmendinger (45-1), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Danica Patrick (50-1).

Jamie McMurray 3-1

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

Jamie McMurray is the highest-ranked winless driver with two races remaining in the regular season.

With a 41-point edge over Clint Bowyer, the final driver on the Chase grid bubble, McMurray is pretty safely ensconced to make the Chase—for the first time in his career.

It’s about time, Jamie Mac!

Interestingly, McMurray has just two top-five and seven top-10 finishes in the first 24 races. But he’s made those finishes count, and that’s why he’ll make the Chase.

Will be able to get past the first round? That’s a question we can only answer with “TBA.”

Ryan Newman 4-1

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Ryan Newman is making 2015 look a lot like 2014. While he still hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race since the 2013 Brickyard 400, Newman is riding consistency into this year’s Chase, just like he did last season.

And how did that turn out? Had Kevin Harvick bobbled in last year’s season-ending race at Homestead, Newman potentially would have been the Sprint Cup champion.

I especially like how Newman is doing just enough to keep his consistency string going. He’s not taking unnecessary chances, is careful not to get caught up in the wrecks of others and will likely make the Chase with ease.

And even though it’s been over two years since he last won a race, don’t rule Newman out of winning at least one in the 12 remaining events of 2015, including the 10-race Chase.

He has the potential to do what Tony Stewart did in 2011: Go through the 26-race regular season without a win or much fanfare, and then explode to win several races in the Chase (Stewart won five in that season’s Chase and ultimately captured his third Sprint Cup championship).

Paul Menard 5-1

Bob Brodbeck/Associated Press

Paul Menard is in kind of the same boat as Jamie McMurray: He’s on the verge of making the Chase for the first time in his Sprint Cup career.

The last thing he wants to do is mess up and miss out again.

So watch for Menard to drive extra carefully at Darlington and Richmond. The last thing he wants to do is be like Clint Bowyer last season.

Bowyer appeared to be a lock to make the Chase, but when the dust settled after the final pre-Chase qualifier at Richmond, he fell short and missed the playoffs.

Menard has to avoid that same situation, and if he does, he’ll make the Chase and become the second Richard Childress Racing driver to do so (in addition to teammate Ryan Newman).

Jeff Gordon 6-1

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Now we’re starting to get into shaky ground. Jeff Gordon is not having the kind of Victory Tour he expected in his final season as a Sprint Cup driver.

And now that it’s crunch time, Gordon is not in the best of places. He’s ranked 13th in the Sprint Cup standings, but he’s 15th on the Chase grid, just 17 points in front of Clint Bowyer.

If Gordon has a bad run at either Darlington or Richmond (God forbid if he does at both), he could find himself failing to make the Chase in his swan-song season.

Gordon has had just about every bit of bad luck a driver can have in a season (okay, maybe not quite as bad as Tony Stewart this season); he’s suffered through crashes that weren’t of his doing, mechanical failures, pit road mistakes and more.

If Gordon can get out of Darlington with a decent finish—the operative word is “if”—his entire season will come down to what and how he does at Richmond.

Given the fact he’s won twice at Richmond, along with 18 top-five and 29 top-10 finishes in 45 starts, the odds seem to be with Gordon that he will make the Chase.

And where he goes from there will be left up to fate. I don’t know why, but I keep harkening back to Tony Stewart in 2011, much like I mentioned in my discussion about Ryan Newman a few slides earlier.

Gordon is in the same kind of position. If he can make it to the Chase, it’s a whole new season. And, who knows, maybe after insufferable bad luck in the first two-thirds of the season, he can potentially make everyone forget about all that with a totally unforgettable performance in the Chase.

Remember, Gordon still has just as good of a chance of winning a championship in his final season—and what would be the fifth of his career—and go out on top.

Clint Bowyer 15-1

Bob Brodbeck/Associated Press

Clint Bowyer is THE man on the bubble right now with two races remaining before the Chase.

He’s last in the 16-driver Chase grid and is in the most precarious position of any driver as of this writing.

Bowyer surely remembers how last season’s race to the Chase played out, and how he ultimately came up short.

Plus, no one has to remind Bowyer that this is his final season with Michael Waltrip Racing, which will close operations at season’s end. What better way to put a nice ribbon on his time at MWR than to make the Chase and potentially go at least a few rounds in the playoffs.

But Bowyer has to maintain his spot on the grid in the next two races, and that’s not going to be easy. In addition, he has a good record at Richmond, and he may need to win that final Chase qualifying race just to make it into the field.

Now that would be pressure, indeed.

Kasey Kahne 15-1

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Kasey Kahne is arguably Clint Bowyer’s worst nightmare right now.

Of all the drivers still Chase-eligible but without any wins, Kahne is the most likely candidate to pull a proverbial rabbit out of a hat and make the Chase.

But the only way he’ll likely be able to do it is to win a race. And if it comes down to his having to go head-to-head against Bowyer at Richmond, my money is on Kahne to pull the upset.

Kahne was in a similar situation last season. With two races left to go, he was outside the Chase grid.

But after winning at Atlanta (which has been replaced on this season’s schedule with Darlington), Kahne made it into the Chase.

Can you say “deja vu”?

Tony Stewart 25-1

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Call me crazy, but I’m still not giving up on Tony Stewart.

Sure, he’s had the worst season of his entire Sprint Cup career to date, but let’s not forget one very important thing: Tony Stewart is a three-time Sprint Cup champ.

Even though he’s endured an extremely tough season—actually, it’s been a tough nearly three seasons, since he hasn’t won a race since 2013—Stewart has not forgotten how to drive.

And he definitely has not forgotten how to win or how to be a champion.

If Stewart wins at either Darlington or Richmond and makes the Chase, lightning could potentially strike twice and he could go on the kind of run he did in 2011.

Don’t give up on Smoke. I know I haven’t.

Greg Biffle 30-1

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Last but not least, we have Greg Biffle, who has had one of the worst seasons of his Sprint Cup career.

But it’s not entirely Biffle’s fault.

The entire Roush Fenway Racing organization has floundered in the Sprint Cup series this season.

While Team Penske has dominated most, if not all, of the success for Ford in the Cup series this season, RFR has been adrift like a leaky row boat in the middle of an ocean.

Sure, teammates Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Trevor Bayne still have a shot at the Chase—if they win one of the last two races.

But given the way their own seasons have gone, the odds of either driver doing that are more astronomical than Biffle’s 30-1 odds.

Biffle is a savvy driver who knows how to win championships (he won both a Truck and Xfinity title before moving to Sprint Cup).

Without question, Biffle is going to have to have the two best races of his season—if not, potentially, of his career—at Darlington and Richmond, if he hopes to make the Chase.

He can race with some form of calculated abandon, not having to worry about points. Biffle needs to adopt a line from Al Davis, the late owner of the Oakland Raiders, and “just win, baby, just win” in the next two races.

Follow @JerryBonkowski