Holloway vs. Oliveira: A Complete Guide to Full UFC Fight Night 74 Card
They should really call this UFC Saskatoon: Night of 1,000 Cult Faves.
Because that's really what UFC Fight Night 74 is. The card, airing Sunday from Saskatchewan, Canada, is not great. But it could be far worse, thanks in large part to its heavy emphasis on fighters who get the hardcore fan's blood bubbling.
In the main event, you have a compelling matchup between two exciting young featherweights in Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. The winner of this one will surely join the contender conversation moving forward.
But hold the phone right there. There are crowd pleasers and personalities all up and down this card, from Patrick Cote to Sam Stout, from Chris Beal to Nikita Krylov. This card has "fun fights" and "fun night on Twitter" written all over it.
Fun stuff. And seriously, what else are you doing on a Sunday evening, especially now that Game of Thrones and True Detective are over? So sit back, relax, fire up that Sunday pot roast and enjoy our complete guide to UFC Fight Night 74, including information capsules, predictions and viewing coordinates for every contest on the slate.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Daniel Jolly
1 of 12Division: Light heavyweight
Records: Misha Cirkunov (9-2), Daniel Jolly (5-0)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
The UFC needs new blood at light heavyweight. Needs it like a vampire victim. When Rafael Cavalcante is on your official rankings, you're in some dire straits, my friend.
Here comes Cirkunov to save the day. Is he the hero we need or want or what not? I don't know, but I do know he's a hot prospect who is making his UFC debut out of Latvia.
He's a bit of a grappling specialist, but he's pretty darn good at it. That might be enough in this division, and it's certainly enough to put away Jolly, a late injury replacement who is filling in for Sean O'Connell.
Prediction: Cirkunov, submission, Round 1
Shane Campbell vs. Elias Silverio
2 of 12Division: Lightweight
Records: Shane Campbell (11-3), Elias Silverio (11-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass
You see what I'm saying about the cult figures? We're not even out of the Fight Pass prelims, and we already have our first sighting.
That's right: It's Hadouken guy.
Campbell made an impression with his Ryu impression. He'll have to work a little harder to impress against Silverio, though. Still, Campbell has a chance, given that he should have the edge standing in this striker vs. grappler affair. But Silverio will get this to the ground for a less-than-pyrotechnical decision win.
Prediction: Silverio, unanimous decision
Chris Kelades vs. Chris Beal
3 of 12
Division: Flyweight
Records: Chris Beal (10-1), Chris Kelades (8-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
For these two Chrises, this is basically a battle to see which version of each fighter is real.
Kelades shocked everyone when he shocked Paddy Holohan last year. He lost his follow-up bout to Ray Borg by submission, and now here he is.
Beal electrified Baltimore at UFC 172, landing a flying knee on Patrick Williams. He won another one at bantamweight and then dropped down to 125 pounds, where he lost his debut.
Both Chrises are tough and want to come forward. Beal should be the more powerful man, but his only professional loss came when Neil Seery outlasted him. The steep and relatively unfamiliar weight cut may not do wonders for Beal's gas tank. If it's the same as last time, this new flyweight iteration may not be the one Beal wants to stick with.
Expect Beal to bring the kitchen sink early. The tough-chinned Kelades will weather the storm and pull out a W. Sound the upset alarms.
Prediction: Kelades, unanimous decision
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Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs. Nikita Krylov
4 of 12
Division: Light heavyweight
Records: Nikita Krylov (18-4), Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-2-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
I love Joe Rogan's face in this photo. How dare somebody act strangely?! That's not what Joe Rogan-hosted events are all about!
I'm sure it was just captured out of context, but still, it made me chuckle.
Can anyone, anyone at all, emerge at light heavyweight? Plenty of people are hoping it's the latest in our cult-hero parade, Mr. Al Capone, as Krylov calls himself. He certainly riles up the fans with his charismatic walkouts and gangster costumes (not anymore—thanks, Reebok!), bruising striking power and nose for the finish (all 18 of his wins have come that way).
Krylov has a lot of, shall we say, freedom in his swinging. He hits hard, but it's not hard to hit him back. Lima can capitalize on such things, what with his 10 career knockout wins and all.
This one is not going to the ground. Lima's last four victories came by knockout. There's every reason to think his power and better technical polish will keep him standing long enough to find Krylov's chin with extreme prejudice. Sorry, fanboys.
Prediction: Lima, TKO, Round 1
Yves Jabouin vs. Felipe Arantes
5 of 12
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Yves Jabouin (20-10), Felipe Arantes (16-7-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Arantes has lost two of his last three fights. Jabouin has dropped three of his last five. And none of it's consecutive. We can't even confidently call this a loser-leaves-town match.
Dash it all. Despite its no-stakes status, this could be an interesting scrap. Jabouin is a rock-solid kickboxer with sharp combinations. That's trouble for Arantes. But what's even bigger trouble is Jabouin's takedown defense; he stuffs 81 percent of all attempts, according to FightMetric.
Arantes relies on takedowns to set up the rest of his game. Jabouin could be ready to stonewall that strategy. Sound the alarms for the veteran.
Prediction: Jabouin, unanimous decision
Sam Stout vs. Frankie Perez
6 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Records: Sam Stout (20-11-1), Frankie Perez (9-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Who doesn't like them some Stout? I like some Stout. Unfortunately, he's here in the prelim headliner, in front of his countrymen and probably fighting for his UFC job.
The years are showing on the hard-hitting Ontario native, who has been knocked out in his last two contests. Those slugfests, they do take their toll.
Perez is respectable everywhere, particularly as a grappler. He lost his UFC debut on short notice and should obviously want to rebound here. While he lacks the size or strength to keep Stout down, the Canadian just hasn't shown much lately. I have to go with the young buck, who will stay away from the big left hand, chip away at Stout from the perimeter and hunt submissions if the action hits the ground.
Prediction: Perez, unanimous decision
Maryna Moroz vs. Valerie Letourneau
7 of 12
Division: Women's strawweight
Records: Maryna Moroz (6-0), Valerie Letourneau (7-3)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Give it up for The Iron Woman. Not to be confused with The Iron Lady, who is Germaine de Randamie. Or The Old Grey Lady, which is a newspaper. Or The Old Gray Mare, which ain't what she used to be.
Moroz is her own fighter, as evidenced by her shocking, but convincing, defeat of Joanne Calderwood earlier this year. The 23-year-old knows her way around a submission, as compared to the 32-year-old slugger, Letourneau.
With three UFC fights between them, it's hard to get a solid read on the matchup. I'll go with Moroz, who showed against Calderwood that she can whip a little leather herself.
Prediction: Moroz, submission, Round 1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Tony Sims
8 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Records: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1), Tony Sims (12-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
If I'm not mistaken, I've seen a few upset picks for Sims in various areas. Don't count me among the dog hunters in this match, though.
I'm going with Canadian, Tristar trainee, cult fave and bringer of muffins Aubin-Mercier, who has notched slick submissions in his past two bouts. This one will end the same way, bringing his career total to, you know, every single one of his wins.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier, submission, Round 2
Chad Laprise vs. Francisco Trinaldo
9 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Records: Chad Laprise (10-0), Francisco Trinaldo (17-4)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Now give it up for the only man to defeat Aubin-Mercier, The Ultimate Fighter winner Laprise.
Laprise earns his living on the perimeter, keeping up a good pace, keeping his nose (or face, rather) clean (of strikes) and keeping opponents guessing for 15 minutes.
The knock on Laprise is his finishing power, which doesn't exist. Trinaldo, ergo, could try to turn this into a brawl. I don't think it works. The Canadians make it two in a row on the main card, thanks to Laprise's smart, sharp striking.
Prediction: Laprise, unanimous decision
Patrick Cote vs. Josh Burkman
10 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Records: Patrick Cote (21-9), Josh Burkman (27-11)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
If there's a bigger Canadian favorite this side of Georges St-Pierre, I don't know who it is if it's not Patrick Cote.
Cote is not quite the marauder he used to be, but the 35-year-old heartthrob still knows how to throw 'em up and let someone else sort 'em out. At his core, he'll always be the sort of tough-headed, move-forward kind of guy he's always been.
The same goes for Burkman, aka The People's Warrior. It feels like 20 years have passed since he was in the World Series of Fighting. He's had a few years shaved off the old odometer, perhaps, since re-entering the UFC, what with the pounding he took from a roided-up Hector Lombard and then Dong Hyun Kim.
Grappling should carry the day here, and though Cote is underrated in this area, Burkman has the edge. This is a close fight to call, but I'll ride with the guy who really needs the W.
Prediction: Burkman, unanimous decision
Neil Magny vs. Erick Silva
11 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Records: Neil Magny (15-4), Erick Silva (18-5)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
I've always suspected that the emperor wears no clothes. By which I mean, "Erick Silva is not an elite UFC fighter."
After all, wins over Mike Rhodes and an over-the-hill Josh Koscheck do not a co-main eventer create. At least not unless you're in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, in the dead of August, and your name is Erick Silva.
Hey, maybe I'm wrong. Let's see what the stats say about how Silva stacks up to Neil Magny, the late replacement you might remember from, you know, that fight two weeks ago that he lost to Demian Maia.
It turns out Magny leads Silva in strikes landed per minute (3.68 to 2.64), striking defense (63 percent to 40 percent), takedowns per 15 minutes (2.78 to 0.93) and takedown defense (68 percent to 60 percent).
The only significant statistic edge that Silva holds is in submission attempts per 15 minutes, 2.5 to Magny's 0.1. Magny is not a subs guy.
Oh, and Magny has a three-inch height advantage (6'3" to 6'0") and a six-inch reach advantage (80" to 74").
As Mike Goldberg would say, everything else is virtually identical.
If Magny had taken major damage, of the non-psychological variety, in the Maia defeat, I'd be more concerned about his quick turnaround. Magny should be able to work his jab, withstand Silva's early berserking and outlast the bigger name.
Sound the mild upset alarms that really shouldn't be upset alarms.
Prediction: Magny, unanimous decision
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
12 of 12
Division: Featherweight
Records: Max Holloway (13-3), Charles Oliveira (20-4)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Don't point at me like that, Oliveira. I want to sound the alarms. I believe you to be a live dog, as the gambling element likes to say. But I just can't do it.
Do Bronx is a lot like Silva in the fight below his: a talented, physically gifted guy who can't seem to put it all together. The difference is that Oliveira may be figuring it out, after ripping off four straight wins (three of them submissions) over fairly solid competition.
He's fairly well-rounded, but his strength is on the ground, and he's better there than Holloway. But the Hawaiian knows how to stuff takedowns, as evidenced by his career 78 percent defense rate, per FightMetric. He's also deceptively good with his defense while on the feet.
I wouldn't go so far as to call this a striker vs. grappler matchup. Both men can do both, but both men also have advantages. Holloway is an active striker and blends all eight points of attack into his combinations. He'll back Oliveira into the fence and tenderize him there. It will be a lot for Oliveira to handle over five rounds.
Talk about guys putting it all together. Move aside, contenders, and let Holloway past that velvet rope.
Prediction: Holloway, unanimous decision
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter.
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