PGA Championship 2015: Dark Horses, Long Shots Who Could Win Wanamaker Trophy
We know who the favorites for the 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits are: Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Justin Rose.
Jordan Spieth's pair of major triumphs and Zach Johnson's win at St. Andrews may suggest that you needn't look beyond the favorites to pick a winner. However, looking to recent history, three of the last five PGA Championship winners were unexpected: Jason Dufner in 2013, Keegan Bradley in 2011 and Martin Kaymer in 2010.
More to the point, Kaymer's win in 2010 came at Whistling Straits. He wasn't among the pre-tournament favorites. Conversely, however, Vijay Singh's 2004 triumph at the Wisconsin course came in a season in which he took over the top spot in the Official World Golf Ranking.
With all of that said, who, far removed from oddsmakers' darling status, could contend, even win, at Whistling Straits?
To determine that, we'll look at odds (via Odds Shark), Official World Golf Ranking, recent form, key stats and performances in the past two PGA Championships at Whistling Straits (2004, 2010).
Here is a list of dark-horse candidates and even a few long shots, whose games will give them a chance to compete this weekend.
Robert Streb
1 of 8
Odds: 80/1
OWGR: 40
Last three finishes: T14, T18, 5
Key stats: Greens in regulation: 11th: 70.06%; Strokes gained: total: 12th: 1.17; Scoring average: 23rd: 70.15; Par 4 scoring: 10th: 3.99
Why he's a dark horse: Robert Streb has had no problem racking up top-25 finishes this season. Plus, he's a proven winner in the 2014-2015 campaign (The McGladrey Classic). Streb tied for 18th at the British Open (the major most similar in nature to the PGA Championship). Plus, he did well his last time out, finishing fifth. Streb is a greens in regulation machine, which will set him up with plenty of opportunities at the ballstriker's course.
Justin Thomas
2 of 8
Odds: 90/1
OWGR: 82
Last three finishes: T54, T5, T4
Key stats: Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 23rd: .866; birdie average: 8: 4.17
Why he's a dark horse: While not particularly adept with the flatstick, Justin Thomas averages more than 300 yards per drive, which will be critical at 7,500-plus yard Whistling Straits. He's also a birdie machine and is in form with top-10 finishes his last two times out. Thomas is also second on tour in par-five performance, and as a tour rookie with seven top-10 finishes, he has a proven aptitude for tackling courses he's never seen before.
Bill Haas
3 of 8
Odds: 100/1
OWGR: 29
Last three finishes: Cut, T4, T25
Key stats: Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 25th: .804; Putting inside 10': 11th: 89.38%
Why he's a dark horse: Bill Haas missed the cut at Whistling Straits in 2010, but we're placing value on the experience here. Has has 10 top-25 finishes in 19 starts this season, so he's been consistently good. Haas is 36th on tour in greens in regulation and has top-30 finishes in three of the last four PGA Championships. If his notoriously cold putter warms up, he has the all-around game and experience to make a run at the Wanamaker.
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Francesco Molinari
4 of 8
Odds: 125/1
OWGR: 46
Last three finishes: T25, T40, T61
Key stats: Driving accuracy: 1st: 77.03%; Greens in regulation: 7th: 70.86%; Strokes gained tee-to-green: 28th: .761
Why he's a dark horse: True, Francesco Molinari lacks distance off the tee. However, as the tour leader in driving accuracy, he won't be routinely playing from the long grass at Whistling Straits, which can derail a round quickly. Molinari displayed some aptitude for the track in 2010, finishing tied for 33rd. He's never missed the cut at a PGA Championship.
Ryan Palmer
5 of 8
Odds: 125/1
OWGR: 34
Last three finishes: T30, T41, T70
Key stats: Driving distance: 12th: 305.8; Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 30th: .854; Scoring average: 18th: 70.05; Approaches from 175-200: 19th: 30'0''
Why he's a dark horse: Ryan Palmer was a contender at Valhalla last year. He bombs the ball off the tee and is adept with approach shots from distance. He tied for 33rd at Whistling Straits in 2010 and hasn't missed a cut in his last six starts. And he's a better putter than many of the golfers on this list (55th in strokes gained: putting). He's a solid dark-horse choice.
Kevin Na
6 of 8
Odds: 150/1
OWGR: 32
Last three finishes: T32, T58, T15
Key stats: Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 22nd: .872; Birdie average: 21st: 3.96; Scoring average: 20th: 70.10; Par 4 scoring: 31st: 4.01
Why he's a dark horse: Kevin Na made the cut at the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits. While he's not particularly long or accurate off the tee or into greens, Na knows how to get the job done, as indicated by his position in the strokes gained: tee-to-green ranking. He makes birdies and scrambles well. In other words, he takes advantage of opportunities and can hang around. He's exactly the type of guy who could win at a tournament where four rounds of 69 should get the job done.
Russell Knox
7 of 8
Odds: 200/1
OWGR: 78
Last three finishes: T8, Cut, T39
Key stats: Greens in regulation: 6th: 71.18%; Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 20th: .895; Total driving: 21st: 64; Par 4 scoring: 6th: 3.98
Why he's a dark horse: A very good player from tee to green, Russell Knox could struggle with Whistling Straits length. However, he's more than capable from the critical 175-200 yards range (35th on tour), so don't expect the ballstriker to be eaten up by the Wisconsin track. Also, as a native Scot, he should be comfortable with the links-style appearance of the course.
Brendan Steele
8 of 8
Odds: 200/1
OWGR: 97
Last three finishes: T25, T30, T7
Key stats: Driving distance: 15th: 303.4; Strokes gained: tee-to-green: 16th: 1.004; Birdie average: 11th: 4.06; Ball striking: 14th: 49
Why he's a dark horse: Brendan Steele hits the ball a long way, makes a ton of birdies and is one of the best ballstrikers on tour. He's made 17 of 20 cuts this season and is sixth on tour in par-four performance. With only two PGA Championship starts in his career, Steele is given short shrift by the oddsmakers. The man is better than 200/1 odds. The idea that there are 70 golfers in the field better than this guy? Ridiculous.
All stats are via PGATour.com.
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