Ranking the Top Defensive Rookie of the Year Candidates for 2015
As there is no clear-cut favorite to win the award, there are many first-year players who have the potential—if they can establish themselves as core defenders on their teams—to be the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year.
While last week's rankings of the top Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates were led by some clear front-runners, the Defensive Rookie of the Year race projects to be more wide open. That is in part because a player who would have been among the top candidates, Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Dante Fowler Jr.—the only defensive player selected in the top five picks of the 2015 NFL draft—is already out for the season with a torn ACL.
Unlike the offensive trophy, which has only been given to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in its 48-year history of being awarded by the Associated Press, the Defensive Rookie of the Year has been given to defensive ends, defensive tackles, linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties.
As the defensive award tends to have less direct correlation to any specific statistics, its voting tends to be more varied and based on broader criteria. Nonetheless, there have been some evident trends.
Following the past 15 seasons, the award has been won 11 times by a linebacker. And the award has not been won by any defensive back since Oakland Raiders cornerback Charles Woodson took home the hardware following the 1998 season.
Since 1980, there have only been five years in which the award was won by a player not selected within the first round. The award has not been won by a player selected in the third round or later since New York Jets safety Erik McMillan was the recipient following the 1988 season.
Taking those trends into consideration, the following list is weighted toward defensive front-seven players and toward players who were selected within the first two rounds of the draft, although all defensive players who have a chance to make noteworthy impacts for their teams in 2015 were considered for inclusion.
Long Shots
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20. Trae Waynes, CB, Minnesota Vikings
The fastest cornerback at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine and the first one drafted, with the No. 11 overall selection, Trae Waynes has the length, speed and ball skills to potentially emerge as a star cornerback. That said, he is not projected to be a starter for the Minnesota Vikings this season and needs to become more polished from a technical standpoint in order to make good on his upside.
19. Byron Jones, CB/S, Dallas Cowboys
Like Waynes, Dallas Cowboys first-round pick Byron Jones is not currently expected to be a starter in his team’s secondary this season. Nonetheless, the big, explosive defensive back should have some opportunities to get on the field and make impact plays in subpackages, as he has been working at both cornerback and safety early in training camp, according to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News.
18. Eric Rowe, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Although the Philadelphia Eagles have opened training camp with Nolan Carroll working as their No. 2 starting cornerback opposite Byron Maxwell, coach Chip Kelly has said that second-round pick Eric Rowe is “right in that mix, too,” according to Zach Berman of Philly.com. Long, fast and physical, Rowe has the talent to potentially end up superseding Carroll on the depth chart. Either way, he is likely to experience growing pains in his rookie season, given that he only played one year of cornerback at Utah after starting his career with three seasons at safety.
17. Markus Golden, OLB, Arizona Cardinals
On an Arizona Cardinals defense that lacks a premier pass-rusher, second-round pick Markus Golden should get plenty of opportunities to go after the quarterback in the team’s 3-4 defense this year. Golden has taken “a good number of reps with the first-team defense” already in Cardinals training camp, according to Adam Green of ArizonaSports.com, and is a high-effort player who is relentless in pursuit. Subpar measurables limit his upside, but he is a player who will work hard to make the most of his skills and potentially make a significant impact in his first campaign.
16. Malcom Brown, NT, New England Patriots
Tabbed to be Vince Wilfork’s replacement in the middle of the New England Patriots defensive line, Malcom Brown has the size and strength to be a great run-stuffer and the athleticism to be more than just a big body. To win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, though, Brown would need to make a similar level of impact to that which Wilfork made for the Patriots in his prime. Expected to be rotated in and out of the lineup in 2015, Brown probably won’t do that right off the bat.
Dark Horses
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15. Mario Edwards Jr., DE/DT, Oakland Raiders
Working at both defensive end and defensive tackle in Oakland Raiders training camp, according to Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle, Mario Edwards Jr. should have opportunities to play multiple roles along the team’s defensive line this season. But while the second-round pick is a physically gifted player with a great combination of size, burst and power, he has raw technique and is unlikely to maximize his potential, especially as a pass-rusher, in his rookie year.
14. Randy Gregory, DE, Dallas Cowboys
An explosively athletic and heavy-handed edge defender, Randy Gregory has huge upside as a pass-rusher. But given that Gregory is an unpolished player who needs to bulk up to be regularly effective against the run, his playing time for 2015 will likely be limited in a Dallas Cowboys defensive end rotation that is led by Demarcus Lawrence, Jeremy Mincey and Greg Hardy.
13. Shane Ray, OLB, Denver Broncos
An explosive edge defender who ranked third in the NCAA’s Football Bowl Subdivision last season with 14.5 sacks at Missouri, Shane Ray could be a serious Defensive Rookie of the Year contender if he continues to put consistent pressure on the quarterback in his first NFL season. The converting defensive end faces a tough transition to outside linebacker in the Denver Broncos’ new 3-4 defense, however, and projects to only see limited playing time behind the team’s two starters at the position, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
12. Bud Dupree, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the most physically gifted players in the 2015 draft class, Bud Dupree offers much-needed explosiveness that should bring an immediate boost to the Pittsburgh Steelers pass rush off the edge. Although he is still a work in progress as a pass-rusher from a technical standpoint, he has enough talent to be a difference-maker as a rookie if he gets consistent playing time. But he might not necessarily get that with the Steelers, who are notoriously stingy about giving starting spots to rookie defenders.
11. Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Houston Texans
Playing behind a loaded Houston Texans defensive line, Benardrick McKinney is a big, athletic linebacker who could have the opportunity to accumulate a high tackling total in 2015. To have a shot at winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, he will need to exhibit more consistent playmaking ability than he did at Mississippi State. First of all, though, McKinney will need to seize the starting job away from incumbent Mike Mohamed, who is reportedly standing out early in training camp, according to John Harris of HoustonTexans.com.
10. Kevin Johnson, CB, Houston Texans
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Given that the Houston Texans signed both Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph to contract extensions this offseason, Kevin Johnson does not project to be one of the team’s full-time starting cornerbacks anytime soon. But if the Texans thought that would prohibit Johnson from making a quick and noteworthy impact, they wouldn’t have drafted the talented Wake Forest product with the No. 16 overall pick.
A fluid athlete with great ability to move laterally and good length, Johnson has the tools to play as both an outside cornerback and in the slot. That makes him a great fit to be the Texans’ No. 3 cornerback, which can allow the Texans to kick Jackson inside and put Johnson in the game outside, or vice versa, whenever they go into their nickel defense.
Perhaps the most NFL-ready cornerback in the rookie class, Johnson should provide an upgrade in coverage right off the bat over A.J. Bouye, who held down the No. 3 cornerback role last season. To garner serious consideration for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, however, Johnson will need to be more than just reliable in coverage. He will need to make big plays on the ball that capture voters’ attention.
Having recorded seven interceptions and 33 additional pass breakups during his collegiate career, Johnson has a demonstrated ability to do just that.
It’s likely that a rookie who plays a greater percentage of his team’s defensive snaps than Johnson will end up winning the award, but the Texans' first-round pick has the talent to legitimize himself as one of the league’s top first-year players in 2015.
Texans coach Bill O’Brien said this past weekend that Johnson “has gotten off to a good start” in training camp, per Deepi Sidhu of HoustonTexans.com.
“He is an aggressive kid, very smart, and very respectful of the game,” O’Brien said.
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9. Danny Shelton, NT, Cleveland Browns
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In terms of both literal size and figurative impact, few defensive rookies project to be bigger for their new teams in 2015 than Cleveland Browns first-round pick Danny Shelton.
At 6’2” and 339 pounds, Shelton has the size and strength to be a stout anchor in the middle of the Browns defensive line. Able to both occupy blockers at the line of scrimmage and break his way through them, Shelton will be as important as any Browns player in bolstering a run defense that allowed more yards than any other in the NFL last season.
What hurts Shelton’s chances of winning the award is that even if he plays up to expectations this year, he still probably won’t put up big numbers. Even the best nose tackles in the NFL typically do not record impressive statistics, as they typically free up teammates to make tackles much more often than they make tackles on their own.
It’s also likely that Shelton will not be an every-down player for the Cleveland defense, at least for his rookie season. The Browns typically substituted their nose tackle out of the game whenever they switched out of their base defense in 2014, their first season under head coach Mike Pettine and defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil.
With a more talented player at the position this year in Shelton, the Browns might be more inclined to keep him on the field in subpackages, but it is nonetheless likely that Shelton will rotate in and out of the game for the 2015 season.
All of that said, it only takes one look at Shelton’s statistics from his senior season at Washington—in which he accumulated otherworldly numbers for a nose tackle with 93 total tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks—to know he has the tools to be more than just a one-dimensional role player.
While Shelton will be unable to play with the same range in the NFL that he did at Washington, he is a noticeably quick player for his size who can move along the line to make plays. So while Shelton is not necessarily a likely candidate to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, he has the talent to put together an outstanding season that could give him a chance.
8. Marcus Peters, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
5 of 12If a cornerback is going to end the 16-year drought on players at the position winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, the strongest candidate to do so should be Kansas City Chiefs first-round pick Marcus Peters.
A fluid, physical and instinctive cornerback at 6’0” and 197 pounds, Peters demonstrated excellent man-coverage ability and ball skills when he was on the field during his collegiate career at Washington.
Having recorded 11 interceptions and 24 additional pass breakups in less than three full collegiate seasons, Peters has a track record of making the big plays he will need to make in order to be an award recipient at the end of the year. On Monday, the Chiefs’ third day of training camp, he began flashing those skills by posting three interceptions and four pass breakups in a single practice session, according to BJ Kissel of KCChiefs.com.
The No. 18 overall pick in this year’s draft, Peters likely would have been selected even higher had he not been dismissed from Washington’s football team during the 2014 season after multiple altercations with coaches. So far in Kansas City, there have been no reports of any problems with Peters, and so long as none develop, the Chiefs could end up having a steal.
As ESPN’s Adam Teicher noted, Peters is not currently positioned to be a starter, as he is behind Sean Smith and Phillip Gaines on the Chiefs depth chart. Even so, he should still have ample opportunities to play. Smith is suspended for the first three games of the year due to a substance-abuse policy violation, which will open up a spot in the starting lineup. As long as Peters performs well in Smith’s absence, he should be no worse than the No. 3 cornerback on the team’s depth chart when Smith returns.
Rookie cornerbacks, even those who are highly touted draft picks, tend to struggle out of the gates more often than not. That is one reason why no cornerback has won Defensive Rookie of the Year for over 15 years.
Peters, who is skilled enough to step in and provide quality coverage right off the bat, will have to avoid those struggles to win the award. If he can do so consistently while making big plays and not giving them up, he could end up being a surprise winner of the trophy.
7. Landon Collins, SS, New York Giants
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If these rankings were solely based on how many snaps each player is likely to see this season, Landon Collins would be at the top of the list. On a New York Giants defense that has a severe lack of talent and experience at the safety position, Collins—whom the Giants traded up to draft with the No. 33 overall pick—will be immediately expected to be an every-down staple in the team’s secondary.
While Giants secondary coach Dave Merritt has stated that the team has yet to commit to Collins starting as a rookie, according to NJ.com’s Jordan Raanan, it would be a huge surprise if he does not eventually win the team’s first-team strong safety job. Simply put, Collins is the most talented player on the team’s safety depth chart, which is largely composed of Day 3 draft picks who have little or no more game experience than the rookie from Alabama.
Given that Collins is likely to be on the field for the vast majority of the Giants’ defensive snaps this year and his nose for the ball, he has a real shot at winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
In three seasons at Alabama, Collins recorded 188 total tackles, five interceptions, 13 additional pass breakups and three forced fumbles. A rangy safety who is built like a linebacker at 6’0” and 228 pounds, Collins is a strong run defender in the box who also has demonstrated ball skills when dropping into coverage.
The biggest question with Collins—especially considering that the Giants do not have an experienced, reliable veteran to line up alongside him and help take pressure off him—is whether he can be consistent in coverage. He had some issues with giving up passing plays on the back end last season at Alabama, and he could struggle if he is regularly thrust into deep-coverage responsibilities.
Ultimately, whether or not Collins is a contender for the award will depend on whether he is able to establish himself as a difference-maker and make impact plays of his own without getting exposed and giving up big plays the other way.
If Collins wins the trophy, he would be the first safety to take it home since Mark Carrier of the Chicago Bears in 1990.
6. Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB/DE, New Orleans Saints
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After releasing Junior Galette less than a week prior to the start of their training camp, the New Orleans Saints are looking for another edge defender to emerge as a pass-rushing threat opposite Cameron Jordan. Hau’oli Kikaha, the team’s second-round pick, is the primary candidate to take advantage.
Rookies selected outside the first round typically don’t begin camp running with the first-team defense, but Kikaha has been, according to Joel A. Erickson of the Advocate. While the Saints likely expected Kikaha to be a situational player as a rookie when they drafted him, the decision to release Galette after multiple off-field transgressions has opened the door for Kikaha to take on a starting role and become a leading contributor on the defense right away.
The leader in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 19 sacks last season, Kikaha is a skilled pass-rusher who wins with technique rather than physical ability. Unlike most of the aforementioned pass-rushers on this list, who have top-notch measurables but need time to develop their fundamentals, Kikaha should be able to play up to his potential quickly because of his consistent effort and ability to win with his hands.
Having played as an edge-rushing outside linebacker at Washington last season, the same role he is expected to play primarily in the Saints’ hybrid defense, Kikaha should not face a particularly difficult transition from a positional standpoint.
The big question with Kikaha, to which an answer will not be clear until the games begin, is whether his collegiate success can translate to success against NFL competition. A 6’2”, 253-pound edge defender who ran a 4.93-second 40-yard dash at Washington’s pro day, according to NFLDraftScout.com, Kikaha has poor length and speed for an NFL edge player, which could make him overly reliant on his technique and leave him physically overmatched.
Despite those concerns, Kikaha’s combination of a constantly running motor and a diverse array of pass-rushing skills should enable him to at least have moderate success in going after the quarterback in 2015. He is a better edge-setting run defender than he gets credit for, and he is unlikely to be asked to drop back into coverage regularly in his rookie season.
If Kikaha ends up being a regular starter and can accumulate a significant sack total this year, he could win Defensive Rookie of the Year and quickly make Galette a forgotten man in New Orleans.
5. Leonard Williams, DE, New York Jets
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Leonard Williams’ chances of being the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year could be contingent on how much the 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sheldon Richardson, ends up playing for the New York Jets this year.
The highest draft pick among defensive rookies who are not already sidelined for the season, Williams has more than enough talent to follow in Richardson’s footsteps and win the award.
Considered by many draft analysts to be the most talented prospect in the 2015 class, the No. 6 overall selection has a combination of power, explosiveness, agility and technical skill that could make him an immediate force as both an interior pass-rusher and run defender.
The biggest obstacle to the award in Williams’ path might not be any deficiency in his game, but whether he gets enough playing time over the course of the season to remain a serious contender. The Jets already have two star players at his position—defensive end in their 3-4 front—in Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson.
Williams does project to be a starter for at least the first four games of the season, as Richardson will be suspended for those games due to a substance abuse policy violation. It’s also possible that Richardson could face further discipline, which could lead to him missing even more time, after he was charged “with resisting arrest and various traffic violations stemming from a high-speed, late-night road race” last month, per Mark Schlinkmann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Even if Richardson returns to start the final 12 games of the Jets regular season, Williams should still get worked into the lineup in a rotational capacity. That could be enough for him to make a Defensive Rookie of the Year run if he is consistent when he is on the field and racks up tackles for loss. The uncertainty around his playing time, however, keeps him from being higher on this list.
4. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Carolina Panthers
9 of 12Shaq Thompson put his athleticism and playmaking ability on full display in his final season at Washington by scoring four defensive touchdowns—three on fumble returns, one on an interception—despite seeing more playing time at running back than linebacker in multiple games.
If Thompson can continue to find his way into the end zone on multiple occasions in his NFL rookie season, now that he is set to play entirely on defense for the Carolina Panthers, he will be a prime candidate to achieve Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
An exceptionally versatile player, Thompson has the range to make plays all over the field. A solid tackler who is also highly skillful in dropping back into coverage, Thompson has the tools to be regularly productive and make plays on the ball in 2015.
One needs to have a presence on the highlight reels to win a Defensive Rookie of the Year award, and Thompson’s proven ability to make game-changing plays can get him there. His chances of actually winning the award, however, could be diminished by the fact that he is unlikely to be an every-down player this upcoming season.
Thompson should be able to move ahead of A.J. Klein for the team’s starting weak-side linebacker job, and his past experience playing defensive back should give the Panthers confidence in keeping him on the field in passing situations. Even so, Thompson probably won’t see much playing time in defensive subpackages because the Panthers already have two outstanding linebackers, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, who rarely ever leave the field.
Few defensive rookies come to their teams with more potential to be instant difference-makers than Thompson, who could play a multitude of positions on the back seven of the Panthers defense while also contributing on special teams. He’ll have to truly make the most of his playing time, though, to earn end-of-season hardware.
3. Stephone Anthony, ILB, New Orleans Saints
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Already garnering consistent praise from coaches, teammates and New Orleans Saints beat writers early in training camp, No. 31 overall pick Stephone Anthony appears well on his way to playing a big role in the Saints defense and, if so, likely being one of the NFL’s most productive defensive rookies in 2015.
With veteran Dannell Ellerbe sidelined due to injury, Anthony began camp working as the Saints’ first-team middle linebacker, according to Joel A. Erickson of the Advocate. Per Erickson, “Anthony has taken charge, making calls and checks like a seasoned veteran.”
Veteran edge defender Parys Haralson is among the Saints teammates who has already offered praise of Anthony, per Erickson.
“I think right now he’s one of those guys that you look at and know in a couple years is going to be one of those elite linebackers,” Haralson said. “He’s smart. He’s fast, he’s physical and he works hard. He’s got a bright future.”
The Saints have a solid pair of more experienced inside linebackers in Ellerbe and David Hawthorne who could end up starting ahead of Anthony if healthy. But considering that the first-round pick offers much more upside than either of them, and that he is already making a big impression on his teammates and has the ability to be a defensive signal-caller, signs point to Anthony ultimately seizing one of their spots in the lineup by Week 1.
An explosive downhill run-stopper at 6’3” and 243 pounds, Anthony has “a physical presence to him when he’s out there,” as Saints coach Sean Payton said, per Mike Triplett of ESPN.com. That said, he is also a very good athlete who has the range to make plays from sideline to sideline and to drop back into coverage.
With Anthony apparently already catching up to the speed of the NFL game, it should be only a matter of time before he establishes himself as a three-down player and a leader in production on the Saints defense. If he can do so this fall, he’ll be a top candidate to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
2. Eric Kendricks, MLB, Minnesota Vikings
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There is no surer way to be a contender for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award than to be a tackling machine at the linebacker position. Eric Kendricks knows all about being one of those, having won the Butkus Award as college football’s best linebacker last year after a 149-tackle senior season at UCLA.
A fundamentally sound tackler who is quick to diagnose plays and has the speed and change-of-direction quickness to chase down runs all over the field, Kendricks has the tools to continue being a tackling machine for the Minnesota Vikings, who selected him in the second round of this year’s NFL draft.
Small for a middle linebacker at 6’0” and 232 pounds, Kendricks might not be a player who frequently makes tackles for loss around the line of scrimmage, but he should excel in space. If Kendricks starts at middle linebacker for the Vikings this year, he should make a run toward accumulating triple-digit total tackles, while he is also skilled with dropping back into pass coverage.
Kendricks still has to earn his way into the starting lineup; according to ESPN.com’s Ben Goessling, he is currently behind Audie Cole on Minnesota’s depth chart at middle linebacker. That said, Kendricks has been working with the first-team defense in nickel packages—a nod to his coverage ability—and still has plenty of time, with five preseason games ahead, to supplant Cole and start in the base defense.
Per John Holler of VikingUpdate.com, Kendricks acknowledged last week that he has to keep getting better in order to reach expectations.
“I’m still making a lot of rookie mistakes,” Kendricks said. “My alignments are showing a little improvement every day, but I’ve still got a lot of work to do.”
Even if Kendricks beats out Cole for the starting job, which is likely to happen in a matter of time, he will still have to compete to be an every-down player, as Anthony Barr, Chad Greenway and Gerald Hodges should all factor into the regular rotation at linebacker as well.
Those questions about playing time are the biggest reasons Kendricks does not hold the No. 1 spot in these rankings. Once the season begins, however, it is likely that Kendricks will quickly establish himself as one of the most productive players on the Vikings defense and end up becoming a mainstay of the unit.
1. Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Atlanta Falcons
12 of 12An elite athlete and skilled pass-rusher drafted by a team that recorded just 22 total sacks in 2014, No. 8 overall pick Vic Beasley has the most potential of any defensive rookie to emerge as a centerpiece for his respective team this upcoming season.
Fresh off an outstanding career at Clemson in which he recorded 33 sacks among 52.5 tackles for loss in his final three seasons, Beasley has all the tools to be the premier pass-rusher the Atlanta Falcons sorely lacked last season and a player that new Falcons coach Dan Quinn can build his hybrid defense around.
Voters love to see proof of impact through statistical production, so Beasley’s sack total—regardless of how truly indicative it is of his overall pass-rushing success—will be pivotal to his Defensive Rookie of the Year candidacy.
That said, Beasley’s versatile pass-rushing repertoire—which combines all-world burst and agility with skillful use of hands and a surprising ability to bull rush with power—could enable him to approach a double-digit sack total in 2015.
While the Falcons added a number of additional pass-rushing options to their team this offseason in veteran free agents Brooks Reed, Adrian Clayborn and O’Brien Schofield, there is little question that Beasley will immediately take on a starring role in pursuit of the quarterback.
Whether Beasley will play a regular role in run defense is less certain. Likely to start out as a situational pass-rusher, Beasley could lose viability as a top candidate for the award if he fails to establish himself as an every-down player at some point during his rookie season.
There is reason to believe in his ability to do so. Despite being undersized for a defensive end at 6’3” and 246 pounds, Beasley has demonstrated adequacy as a run defender on tape. And even if the Falcons are concerned about his ability to hold up initially against offensive tackles, that does not necessarily have to keep him off the field, as his athleticism and tackling ability allow him to play in space as a linebacker.
Versatility is one of Beasley’s greatest strengths, and it should ultimately help him emerge as the star of the Falcons defense in short order. If he can make a clear and immediate impact as a pass-rusher while being a mainstay on the field without being a liability, Beasley will be the favorite to take home a trophy at the end of the year.
All measurables courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise noted.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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