Colts 2015 Preview: Complete Indianapolis Guide for Preseason, Season
Football is back.
As the Indianapolis Colts' 2015 training camp begins, it's natural to look ahead to the NFL preseason, with the regular season following just behind.
The Colts are one of the league's favorites to make a deep playoff run, but preseason expectations don't mean a whole lot once the games are being played. Just ask the 2012 Colts.
Training camp is fun and a good way to ease back into football, but everybody knows what the main event is.
So let's set the stage for the Colts' preseason and regular season, looking ahead to some of the key factors in this year's competition.
Key Additions
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Key Free Agents: Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Trent Cole, Kendall Langford, Todd Herremans, Dwight Lowery
The Colts had one of the most high-profile free-agent classes of the league in 2015, signing three former Pro Bowlers in Gore, Johnson and Cole and another well-known starting veteran in Herremans.
The age factor will play a role here, with Lowery and Langford being the only players younger than 32. The age of each of the other four players has been the primary criticism of the Colts' offseason, but each of the veterans were a clear upgrade over his 2014 counterpart, with Gore replacing Trent Richardson, Johnson replacing Reggie Wayne and Trent Cole giving a boost over Bjoern Werner.
As long as they can stay healthy, Gore and Johnson should give the Colts a significant boost on offense, both players bringing a toughness and level of experience the team desperately needs. While the Colts' bread and butter is vertical passing, both vets add an ability to work the middle of the field at times.
Langford and Cole both add some pass-rushing to the front seven, although the best scenario for the Colts would be that both players end up surpassed by younger players (Henry Anderson and Jonathan Newsome).
Herremans is a bigger question mark, with age and lingering injuries hampering him severely last season. At the very least, he'll provide some leadership on the line.
Key Rookies: Phillip Dorsett, D'Joun Smith, Henry Anderson, Clayton Geathers, David Parry, Josh Robinson
Who will be a key rookie in 2015? Nobody really knows. We haven't seen any of them play a down yet.
But Dorsett could be an X-factor with his ability to stretch the field and make big plays at any given time. Spending a first-round pick on him hints that the Colts are high on his ability. He's also made an impact throughout the offseason.
Smith, Anderson and Geathers were the Colts' biggest attempts to bolster the youth on defense, where the team has little long-term potential. Still, Geathers could have a big role this year as a nickel defender, and Anderson could be a penetrating force in the defensive line rotation as well.
Initially it seemed like Robinson would push for the second running back role in Indianapolis, but with Dan Herron having a strong hold on the job for now, Robinson may be limited to short-yardage carries and rotational play.
What to Watch in the Preseason
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The Center Battle
The Colts head into camp with questions at center for the fourth consecutive year, as the team has struggled to fill the position since allowing Jeff Saturday to walk.
First, Andrew Luck had to deal with Samson Satele for two years. Last year, it was a combination of A.Q. Shipley (who played the best of the three, in my opinion), Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison.
Heading into 2015, it seems like Holmes and Harrison will once again compete for the spot. For now, we'll give the edge to Holmes, simply because he finished last season as the starter. But the preseason will give us our first glimpse into the battle for 2015.
Center is an odd position, one that often isn't seen as the most important on the line but also handles the ball on every down. A great center won't necessarily make an offensive line, but a bad one who's not sufficiently helped by his guards can derail it quickly.
The Colts don't need Harrison and Holmes to be Pro Bowlers, but they do need at least one of them to approach competence.
Rookie Standouts
A rookie or two will have a big year for Indianapolis, but which one remains a mystery.
Will it be Phillip Dorsett, adding another dimension of speed to the offense? Will it be Henry Anderson as a disruptive force on the defensive line? Will Clayton Geathers or D'Joun Smith boost the secondary?
Keep an eye on Dorsett and Geathers in the preseason. Training camp is one thing, with limited contact, but with Dorsett's impact on the offense and Geathers potentially taking on a nickel linebacker role, live games will be a big test.
Offensive Identity
Pep Hamilton's biggest test this offseason has been to figure out the offensive identity of a team that was one of the league's best vertical offenses in 2014 but was shut down by teams that knew how to take away T.Y. Hilton (Hello, Mr. Belichick).
The Colts don't want to be completely one-dimensional, but they also know what their best attributes are. The team is in the best position to win when Luck is able to let it rip down the field, but adding Frank Gore gives them a threat on the ground that's impossible to ignore.
The presence of Andre Johnson as a possession receiver and Donte Moncrief's and Dorsett's abilities after the catch means there could be more quick throws as well. In the end, stretching the field with speed and Luck's downfield throwing ability are the Colts' best offensive strategies.
But the other stuff will get mixed in and should help the team be more efficient. The key is finding the right recipe.
Chemistry on the Offensive Line
While the center battle, as well as the one at left guard, will likely rage on through camp, the biggest key for any offensive line is chemistry and continuity. The Colts have had little in recent years, although there were good stretches last season.
Unfortunately, the line has been shuffled quite a bit since last season, with Jack Mewhort moving to right tackle, Todd Herremans added and a new left guard starter needed to replace Mewhort.
No matter who is starting come the first preseason game, keep an eye out for the communication on the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo and Mewhort worked well together on the left side last year, but are separated now, and it'll be interesting to see how that affects both players.
Schematic Changes for 2015
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Return of the Run?
Replacing Trent Richardson with Frank Gore almost forces an offensive coordinator to run the ball more, doesn't it?
Richardson was one of the least efficient backs in the league over the last two seasons, dragging down the running game at an abnormal rate. The rest of the Colts backs have been pretty successful during that time, but Richardson simply never got it. Gore gets it and should benefit greatly for light boxes in Indianapolis.
But does a more efficient running game mean that the offense will start running it more?
Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 249 carries last year, while Gore had 255 carries. It's hard to imagine him getting more carries; in fact, the Colts might want to scale him back just a bit, especially if he'll be contributing on third down as well.
Perhaps Dan Herron will get more carries than his 78 attempts last season. But Carlos Hyde, Gore's backup in San Francisco, only had 83 carries, so it's not like Gore was receiving abnormally low carries last season.
The Colts run a lot of plays and are ahead quite a bit. There will be plenty of carries available for Gore and Herron late in games without shifting focus away from the passing game too quickly. So while the Colts offense will change a bit with a more efficient run game, it shouldn't affect them as drastically as some may think.
Stretching the Field
The Colts stretched the field last season. It's hard not to when you have Andrew Luck throwing to T.Y. Hilton.
The team finished with the most plays of 20 yards or more in the league last season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, and Luck threw for more than 2,200 yards and 17 touchdowns on such plays. But this year's team could test defenses even more.
With Phillip Dorsett and an ascending Donte Moncrief on the field with Hilton, the Colts would have three legitimate burners and a quarterback who can hit them. Throw in Coby Fleener's downfield ability, and you have an offense that is built to exploit defenses with the deep ball.
Now, what does that mean for play-calling? We'll see. Hamilton has a lot of options on how to use this to his advantage, both in running the ball against light boxes, exploiting the underneath and middle coverages or simply letting Luck fling the ball.
Nickel Sub-Packages
The Colts have had just a few days of training camp so far, but one of the most important revelations to come out has been this tweet from The Indy Star's Stephen Holder:
Jackson was abysmal in pass coverage last season, and the Colts' defense suffered because of it. Tight ends and running backs abused the Colts through the air last season, as the team finished 26th and 31st in defensive DVOA against those positions, according to Football Outsiders.
The biggest value Jackson provides is in the run game, but he's a liability through the air. Geathers' ability to sub in and play physically in the box gives the Colts much-needed flexibility on third downs, something that could prove to be invaluable as the season progresses.
Top 10 Most Important Colts for 2015
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1. Andrew Luck
As Luck goes, so go the Colts.
2. Vontae Davis
Without Davis, the Colts' secondary is toast. Just watch the loss in Pittsburgh last season for evidence.
3. Robert Mathis/Trent Cole
It's unlikely that both players can rush the passer at a significantly high level. The Colts don't need both of them to do so, either. They do, however, need at least one of them to pan out in order for the pass rush to get to acceptable levels for a Super Bowl contender.
4. Anthony Castonzo
He's the rock of the offensive line. Without him, the line has no established starters. Plus, the tackle depth is virtually nonexistent.
5. Arthur Jones
The Colts' big free agent from 2014 didn't make much of an impact, hampered by injuries for much of the year. The team needs him to live up to his five-year, $35 million contract in 2015.
6. T.Y. Hilton
If it wasn't for the depth at wide receiver, Hilton would be much higher on this list. His presence does so much for the offense, and that's even before we get into his ridiculous levels of production over the last two seasons.
7. Jonathan Newsome
If the Colts need one second- or third-year player to break out this season, it's Newsome. He is the lone pass-rusher on the team who has displayed positive signs for the future.
8. Jerrell Freeman
Freeman was hurt for much of last year, which showed in his inconsistent play. With D'Qwell Jackson slowing down with age, Freeman's return to the levels he was playing at in 2013, or his potential improvement, would be a big boost for the defense.
9. Frank Gore
"Frank the Tank" could prove to be a huge boost to the offense's efficiency in 2015 and brings a toughness element to the Colts run game that has been missing since the days of Edgerrin James. His presence gives the Colts a true workhorse back, even if they don't have to use him in that manner.
10. Andre Johnson
Watching clips from last season is very difficult, simply because of how poorly Reggie Wayne played for much of the year. Wayne's drop-off was sudden after his ACL tear in 2013, and the lack of a possession receiver for Luck to go back to in the middle of the field hurt the offense at times. Johnson could be a big help in that regard.
Honorable Mention: Dwayne Allen, Phillip Dorsett, Henry Anderson, Mike Adams
X-Factors
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Jack Mewhort
While the Colts offensive line likely won't be the deciding factor in whether the offense is good or not in 2015 (it will be regardless), it will be the biggest determinant of just how good the offense can be.
The Colts could simply be above average, or they could reach historically prolific levels. The offensive line's ability or lack thereof will likely determine where on that scale the offense lands.
And on that line, second-year player Jack Mewhort is probably the biggest determining factor. We know Anthony Castonzo is good on the left side. We know the middle is probably going to be a mess. We don't really know what Mewhort will be.
Will he and Castonzo prove to be dependable bookends, or will separating the solid left-side duo from 2014 come back to haunt the Colts?
Phillip Dorsett
The Colts shocked the world when they selected Dorsett out of Miami in the first round of the 2015 draft. The team had significantly bigger needs at other positions, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Remember, the AFC Championship Game loss in New England was still fresh in people's minds.
But Dorsett can still have a big impact on the offense. The Colts ground to a halt offensively when teams took T.Y. Hilton out of the game last season, and having another deep threat should keep that a bit more honest.
Dwayne Allen
From a talent and potential standpoint, Allen has been one of the Colts' top players going into each of the last few seasons.
Like the offensive line, Allen isn't indispensable, but he could have a huge effect on just how good the offense is in 2015. His ability to affect both the passing game and the running game should not be overlooked.
It's also a big year for Allen as an individual, as a big, healthy year could put him in prime position for a big payday next offseason. Of course, if he does not have a good year or gets hurt, those chances will go out the window.
Regular Season Schedule Preview
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Week 1 at Buffalo: Colts 22, Bills 10
Week 2 vs. New York Jets: Colts 27, Jets 17
Week 3 at Tennessee: Colts 42, Titans 24
Week 4 vs. Jacksonville: Colts 45, Jaguars 17
Week 5 at Houston: Colts 24, Texans 13
Week 6 vs. New England: Patriots 41, Colts 35
Week 7 vs. New Orleans: Colts 38, Saints 35
Week 8 at Carolina: Panthers 24, Colts 23
Week 9 vs. Broncos: Colts 27, Broncos 24
Week 10- BYE WEEK
Week 11 at Atlanta: Colts 42, Falcons 35
Week 12 at Tampa Bay: Colts 49, Buccaneers 21
Week 13 at Pittsburgh: Steelers 35, Colts 34
Week 14 at Jacksonville: Colts 27, Jaguars 21
Week 15 vs. Houston: Colts 31, Texans 10
Week 16 at Miami: Colts 30, Dolphins 24
Week 17 vs. Tennessee: Colts 28, Titans 17
FINAL: 13-3, AFC South Champion, No. 2 seed
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