Kansas City Chiefs Desperately Need Dontari Poe at His Best

Dontari Poe is one of the toughest players to replace in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs defender plays a role that is dying in today's pass-heavy NFL. He is a run-stuffing nose tackle who can man multiple gaps. The role is dying because of the growing prevalence of nickel packages that don't rely on nose tackles. Nose tackles are typically too heavy to rush the passer.

While Poe is very heavy, he's also very athletic. That allows him to remain on the field for an unnatural amount of time, acting as an effective pass-rusher in nickel packages.

According to Football Outsiders, Poe played over 1,000 snaps last year. Playing over 1,000 snaps in an NFL season is a phenomenal achievement—which becomes even more impressive when you're playing one of the more physically draining and violent positions in the sport.

In 2014, Poe was one of eight defensive linemen to play over 1,000 snaps. He was the only defensive tackle to achieve that feat, though. How can that achievement be made even more impressive? It was his second successive season surpassing 1,000 snaps.

Poe's usage over the past two years has undoubtedly contributed to his herniated disk. The 24-year-old had surgery on July 15 and is expected to miss all of training camp. Poe may not miss any games, but his availability to start the season isn't assured.

Even if he doesn't miss any games, the impact of missing training camp and the preseason should be significant.

Being 6'3" and 346 pounds of athlete doesn't come easily.

Managing his weight was important for Poe's transition from an underwhelming rookie to an impactful second-year star. Not being able to work out will make it tougher for Poe to keep the weight off, while he will obviously need time to get rid of any rust.

David Chao, a former NFL team physician, spoke to Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star about Poe's rehab process:

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“My guess is, the first month (of rehab) — and I haven’t examined him — is more about pain (control), swelling and edema control and trying to maintain a little bit of baseline fitness,” Chao said. “And the next month is more transitioning into some good, hard rehab. And perhaps the last month, the third month, is (working on) football muscles, football shape, field work.”

“I don’t know him, maybe he’s Superman — and by some reports, I think he’s a pretty special guy,” Chao said. “But if he makes it week one, he should be celebrated for doing a great job.”

Chao said herniated disks are harder on linemen for a couple reasons.

“First, they’re just bigger and they’re carrying a lot more weight, and just because a guy is 350 pounds doesn’t mean the structure of his spine is twice as big as that of a 175-pound guy,” he said. “And second, it’s about core strength. In his case, two guys or more are pushing on you, and it’s hard on your lower back.”

That makes this one of the hardest positions to come back from, Chao said, because of the constant stress placed on the area.

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Andy Reid was optimistic that Poe could return for the early part of the season, suggesting that the chances of him landing on the PUP list are low. Over the first couple of weeks of the season, the Chiefs will need to be resilient against the run.

The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals all project to be strong running teams this season. Each has a cornerstone running back with the ability to run hard between the tackles.

If Poe is healthy, he can consume blockers and take advantage of interior offensive linemen to mitigate the value of those star backs. If he's not, the spine of the Chiefs defense could be in serious trouble.

Although the raw numbers for the Chiefs defense suggest that they managed multiple injuries to key players last season to still be a top defense, advanced analytics suggest otherwise. Football Outsiders' DVOA, which measures efficiency on a snap-by-snap basis, ranked the unit 19th overall.

The disparity between the two numbers is born out of the overly cautious nature of the offense. An offense that doesn't take risks, doesn't give up points or put its defense in shorter field situations. Therefore, the raw stats aren't isolating the work of the defense, whereas Football Outsiders' DVOA metric is.

Most importantly, the Chiefs ranked 26th against the run last year with Poe in the lineup. His presence couldn't compensate for the loss of Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry and Mike DeVito.

Each of those players are back this season, but Johnson and Berry will need to prove that their health concerns won't linger over their performances on the field. Berry, in particular, shouldn't bring any expectations considering he is returning from something so serious as cancer.

Johnson is returning from an Achilles tear, not a significant injury in comparison to cancer but one of the most significant common injuries suffered in football. At 32 years of age, there must be concerns about how soon he can return to the Pro Bowl-caliber player he was before. If he can return, that is.

Josh Mauga will likely start alongside Johnson at inside linebacker. Mauga is an underwhelming player whose production last season wasn't reflective of positive performances.

In Poe's role, he can make Mauga and Johnson's responsibilities against the run easier. Consecutive plays against the Seattle Seahawks last season highlighted Poe's value to his teammates both as a nose tackle in a 3-4 base and when the Chiefs play just two defensive linemen.

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On this play, the Chiefs align in their base 3-4 front. Poe is the nose tackle, lined up directly in front of the center. Although there are two defensive ends on the play, neither is in a position to cover either A-gap on the offensive line. The A-gap is the gap between the center and the guard.

The Seahawks are in a heavy formation with a fullback between Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. This makes it easier for the Seahawks to double Poe.

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Doubling Poe is a requirement rather than an option. He's too explosive and precise to be contained by a single blocker in space. When the ball is snapped, the Seahawks offensive line moves to the left, and the right guard is responsible for doubling Poe with the center.

Poe's reaction at the snap allows him to move with the center. He makes it tougher for the right guard to get to him and pulls him further across the field.

When the right guard eventually attempts to engage him, Poe shows perfect body positioning and extends his right leg away from his body to create leverage. He uses this leverage to withstand the push from both blockers and hold his position on the line of scrimmage.

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How Poe performed against the double-team didn't matter on this occasion. Just by drawing the double-team and pulling the right guard far away from his original starting spot created a wide gap for the left defensive end to run through.

That defensive end is able to meet Lynch in the backfield as the fullback cuts back to pick up the edge defender.

Lynch's cutback appeared to be a designed one. He broke the tackle of the defensive end and continued downfield for a big gain because of poor pursuit angles from the second-level defenders. Even though the Chiefs didn't take advantage of the opportunity Poe created here, his impact could still be seen.

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For the second play, Poe lined up directly over the right guard. The Seahawks alignment is crucial to understand on this play. Running from the shotgun with a tight end to the left and the running back to the right suggests that they are going to leave the edge defender to the right unblocked.

This means that even though Poe has two defenders to his side of the snap against just a center-right guard-right tackle combination, he can still be double-teamed.

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Josh Mauga, No. 90, makes the mistake on this play. When the offensive line double-teams Poe, he steps forward so that he is directly behind Poe. As soon as he saw that happen, he needed to accelerate toward the right A-gap so he was in position to tackle Lynch.

Instead, he gave up gap integrity by staying behind Poe, rendering his ability to stand up to the double-team irrelevant. The two defenders outside and James-Michael Johnson at right inside linebacker all put themselves in position to stop Lynch.

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With Mauga working too close to Poe, the right guard could comfortably peel off of Poe once the double-team was finished to latch onto him. The linebacker gave up a clean running lane into the secondary that Lynch took advantage of. He ran right through the center of the defense for a big gain.

Commanding double-teams with the consistency that Poe does is hugely valuable, but that's not his only value in run defense.

Most nose tackles who dominate between the guards don't offer much when asked to move laterally. Poe can move laterally, but he can also turn and chase running backs in pursuit with surprising speed. This is very valuable in a league that is using outside runs more and more.

Against the Denver Broncos, Poe showed off this ability.

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Comfort using your hands against blockers while moving your feet and maintaining your balance sounds simple, but it's difficult when you weigh more than 300 pounds and measure over 6'0". Poe was able to make the tackle on this play outside of the numbers, limiting the play to a two-yard gain.

In Arian Foster and C.J. Anderson, the Chiefs face two backs who can excel pushing plays outside before cutting back in. Both the Texans and Broncos will force the Chiefs defensive linemen to move laterally in run defense on a regular basis.

The Chiefs offense helps the defense keep points off the board and yardage down by not turning the ball over and holding it for longer drives. It doesn't help the Chiefs win games, though.

Unless Alex Smith reverses the current trajectory of his career, the Chiefs offense will be too cautious to overcome a defense that isn't capable of containing their opponents. Winning shootouts on a regular basis with a limited passing game simply isn't a sustainable strategy.

Poe is one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the NFL. Obviously it's impossible for him to eclipse the better quarterbacks in the league, but it would be fair to compare his loss to that of Earl Thomas or J.J. Watt in terms of impact.

The Chiefs don't have an easy start to the season and they don't appear set to be a team that can afford to lose a couple of games early on before recovering later. They desperately need Poe to be healthy.