UFC 190: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC’s exhausting schedule continues this weekend with UFC 190 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card is far from stacked, but the opportunity to witness Ronda Rousey in action is always welcome. The UFC women’s bantamweight champion will take on Bethe Correia in the challenger’s home country. It’s a contest that—depending on how cynical you are toward such narratives—is extremely personal for Rousey.

Before the women collide in the main event, we can look forward to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua taking on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Stefan Struve vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar in the latter’s UFC debut and much more besides.

As always, Bleacher Report MMA’s team of malfunctioning precogs is on hand to offer their thoughts on the weekend’s main card. Read on for the views of Scott Harris, Riley Kontek, Sean Smith, Craig Amos and yours truly, James MacDonald.

2015 Staff Records

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

I’m hanging on by a thread. Near perfection was insufficient at UFC on Fox 16, with my nearest rivals going 4-for-4 on last weekend’s picks. However, I remain in the top spot, narrowly ahead of Riley Kontek in second place and Sean Smith in third.

Craig Amos and Scott Harris continue to battle it out to avoid the wooden spoon, in fourth and fifth place, respectively. The war between these two is more compelling than anything going on at the top of the leaderboard.

Here are the updated staff records:

• James MacDonald: 89-44-0
• Riley Kontek: 87-46-0
• Sean Smith: 85-48-0
• Craig Amos: 78-55-0
• Scott Harris: 76-57-0

Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar

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Kontek

Jessica Aguilar has long been considered the best strawweight in the world, but not anymore. Joanna Jedrzejczyk now holds that distinction. She hasn't faced some of the best fighters that have come along because she was not with Invicta or the UFC until now. Claudia Gadelha is one of those fighters that came along and will show Aguilar what the UFC is like.

Gadelha, Unanimous decision

Smith

This should be a competitive one between two ladies looking to earn a shot at the strawweight belt. With close fights against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza, respectively, Gadelha and Aguilar have both already proved to be elite 115-pounders. I think the difference will be Gadelha's UFC experience, as the nerves will get to Aguilar in her debut.

Gadelha, Unanimous decision

Harris

Before Aguilar reached the UFC, she was "the best strawweight in the sport." Now she hits the big stage, and everyone runs for the hills. Not this guy. So I want you to sound the upset alarms. Let them ring through the favelas and over the white sandy beaches. Aguilar is taking this home.

Aguilar, Unanimous decision

Amos

Aguilar has been considered a top strawweight for a while now, but Gadelha has looked the part of a title contender, pushing champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk to the limit last December. Though Aguilar will fit in near the top of the division, she's going to begin her UFC tenure in disappointing fashion. 

Gadelha, Unanimous decision

MacDonald

I love this fight. Aguilar has long been considered one of the best female fighters outside of the UFC, so it’s a treat to see her against an animal like Gadelha. Will her UFC debut be one to remember? Gadelha is a tough out and arguably bested the division champion last time out—I strategically avoided typing out her name. On that basis, I’ll go with the Brazilian. However, I won’t be at all surprised if Aguilar comes away with the win.

Gadelha, Unanimous decision

Antonio Silva vs. Soa Palelei

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Kontek

"Big Foot" Silva has not looked like a fighter who warrants much confidence lately. Add to that the fact he has been starting slowly and that Palelei thrives in the first couple of minutes, and that's a bad recipe for him here.

Palelei, TKO, Rd. 1

Smith

Although Bigfoot has been slumping badly, he has also been competing against elite heavyweights every time he steps into the Octagon. Palelei is a step down and an opponent who will be getting his first taste of ranked heavyweight competition. Silva may not have it in him to beat the best of the best, but I don't doubt his ability to bounce back against Palelei.

Silva, KO, Rd. 2

Harris

Silva has simply not been the same since the TRT ban. His chin is the biggest vulnerability: He's winless in his last four, with three losses coming by knockout. That does not bode well when you're facing maybe the hardest hitter in MMA.

Palelei, KO, Rd. 1

Amos

Silva hasn't won for a while, but at least he's been taking on some seriously good competition. Palelei's been far more successful, but I don't doubt that Silva would get similar results if they fought the same opponents. Silva takes this one in the second frame after a competitive Round 1. 

Silva, TKO, Rd. 2

MacDonald

This is a true battle of giants. Palelei tends to start with a bang and then gradually fade. On the other side, Silva is notorious for being slow out of the blocks. If the Brazilian can weather the early storm, he might be the favorite. I don’t see it happening, though.

Palelei, TKO, Rd. 1

Stefan Struve vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Kontek

Two heavyweights who have seen better days. Years of wars have worn out Nogueira. Health problems have taken their toll on Struve. So which of the weary warriors will be victorious? Truth be told, your guess is as good as mine. But I will take the height and length of Struve and his stand-up. 

Struve, Unanimous decision

Smith

It's clear that Nogueira is coming down to his last couple of fights. However, he always seems to turn it up a notch when competing in Brazil. With that and Struve's questionable chin, I'm expecting at least one more memorable win out of Nogueira this weekend.

Nogueira, KO, Rd. 1

Harris

Time to unfreeze Big Nog and roll him out for the adoring Brazilian faithful. This is only his sixth fight in the last five years, and four of those were in his home country. But it won't be enough to pull him out of this end-of-career tailspin. Struve uses his reach to take a slugfest.

Struve, TKO, Rd. 2

Amos

Nogueira can win this fight by getting inside on Struve and landing punches from in close. The problem is that he is no longer as quick as he used to be, and lest we forget, he had a habit of taking damage even in his prime. Of course, it could also go to the mat, where things could be interesting. Nevertheless, I'm taking Struve via knockout.

Struve, TKO, Rd. 1

MacDonald

There’s no nostalgia pick here, as both Struve and Nogueira are easy to cheer for—though for different reasons. Despite his health issues, Struve is clearly the fresher fighter. Nogueira often looks like his body is barely holding itself together. Purely on that basis, this should be Struve’s fight.

Struve, TKO, Rd. 2

Reginaldo Vieira vs. Dileno Lopes

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Kontek

I also picked Dileno Lopes to win this season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, so I will stick with him here. Reginaldo Vieira's comeback this season has been astounding, but Lopes is too well-rounded to fail here. It will be close and fun, so be ready to be entertained. 

Lopes, Unanimous decision

Smith

When Giovanni Santos withdrew from TUF Brazil 4, Vieira was given another opportunity despite having already lost, and he made the most of it by reaching the finals. This is where the fun ends for Vieira, though. Lopes beat Matheus Nicolau, who was initially responsible for bouncing Vieira from the competition, so he shouldn't have any problem taking down Vieira at UFC 190.

Lopes, Submission, Rd. 1

Harris

Lopes has been on prospect radars for a while, but as a flyweight. This is a bantamweight bout. So he's a tad undersized, but I think he still has the athleticism and aggression to run down Vieira, stay out of the grind and get the UFC contract.

Lopes, Unanimous decision

Amos

Vieira beat the odds by reaching the finals after losing in the first round of the bantamweight tournament, but he remains a sizable underdog heading into his bout with Lopes. There is a reason for that. Lopes takes this one.

Lopes, TKO, Rd. 2

MacDonald

Unlike the other TUF Brazil contest, this one is pretty simple to call. Vieira is easy to root for, but Lopes has more tools to get the job done. The fairy tale ends here.

Lopes, Unanimous decision

Glaico Franca vs. Fernando Bruno

Kontek

This is going to be a very close bout. That said, I picked Fernando Bruno to win this season of TUF Brazil, so I will stick with that. Glaico Franca has been extremely impressive, so it will be close, but Bruno is well-rounded enough to take this, especially with Nova Uniao in his corner.

Bruno, Unanimous decision

Smith

Submitting his way to the lightweight finals on TUF Brazil 4, Franca is dangerous on the ground. However, he doesn't match up all that well with Bruno, who has never tapped in his MMA career. A Nova Uniao product, Bruno should walk away with the win in this one even if he doesn't have as much upside as Franca, who is nine years younger than his opponent.

Bruno, Unanimous decision

Harris

Battle of the titans, right here. Both of these guys are grapplers, though Bruno probably has more of a propensity for the knockout-power strike. But this should be a ground battle, and Franca is more dynamic there. He'll win the scrambles and rack up the points.

Franca, Unanimous decision

Amos

Franca is the young fighter and has more upside than Bruno. Given that the TUF house tends to accelerate development, he should be better than ever coming into Saturday's matchup. Franca will earn the win, but he won't get the submission as he did in both his contests during the reality show.

Franca, Unanimous decision

MacDonald

This is a tough fight to call. It’s a coin flip for me. Both Bruno and Franca have impressed, but I’m leaning toward the more versatile Bruno. However, I expect this one to go the distance and be very competitive.

Bruno, Unanimous decision

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

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Kontek

Two aged warhorses, one tough decision to make. Rua's lack of success lately and penchant for getting in wars makes him a worrying pick to win here. Nogueira's lack of activity and violent loss to Anthony Johnson are also concerning. Flip a coin, consider mileage and go with Nogueira, I guess.

Nogueira, Unanimous decision

Smith

Rua hasn't looked good recently, but at least he's remained somewhat healthy. Nogueira has only competed once in nearly two-and-a-half years and hasn't stepped into the Octagon in more than a year. I wouldn't be shocked if it goes the other way, but Rua should overwhelm a rusty Nogueira early on.

Rua, TKO, Rd. 1

Harris

I can't help but feel this is a cynical play to a fanbase's nostalgia, both in Brazil and beyond. Rua is much slower these days, but he should still have enough to put away the 39-year-old Lil Nog, especially on the feet.

Rua, TKO, Rd. 2

Amos

Both of these combatants have accomplished a great deal, but not lately. Rua is one for his last five, Nogueira two for his last five. I guess you have to weigh Nogueira's inactivity against the damage Rua's accumulated. 

Rua, TKO, Rd. 1

MacDonald

A few years ago, I’d have picked Rua without a moment’s hesitation. He has more miles on the clock than my dad’s Vauxhall Cavalier, though. He looks much slower, more vulnerable and generally hasn’t evolved his game. The good news for him is that he is facing Nogueira who, despite his inactivity, is equally weary and limited at this point in his career. I’m not sure which man has more left in the tank. My head is undecided, but my heart is steering me toward Rua.

Rua, TKO, Rd. 2

Ronda Rousey (c) vs. Bethe Correia

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Kontek

Not much analysis here from me. Correia talked herself into a title fight. She will make a truckload of money, but a victory is a pipe dream. Rousey strikes for a period of time, earns a takedown and shows world-class grappling en route to a rubber match with Miesha Tate.

Rousey, Submission, Rd. 1

Smith

Until she meets Cristiane Justino, I probably won't even consider picking against Rousey. She's a class, maybe three, above everybody else in the UFC women's bantamweight division right now. Correia has done a good job selling this bout, but she isn't beating the champion, who will probably look to punish the Brazilian by showing off her improved striking.

Rousey, TKO, Rd. 1

Harris

I just wish Rousey had called her shot, Conor McGregor style. Call the finish to the second, you know? I guess I'll have to do it for her. I think she'll punish Correia enough to make a point, but not enough to make Correia the second opponent to make it past the first round. I say it ends at the 4:57 mark.

Rousey, Submission, Rd. 1

Amos

Correia has performed well inside the Octagon, but she hasn't done anything that makes me believe she poses much of a threat to Rousey. This will be a routine outing for the bantamweight champion.

Rousey, Submission, Rd. 1

MacDonald

OK, I’ll respect the prediction process by pretending to consider this one. Correia has decent hands, and if for some reason Rousey chooses to fight at distance, this might be competitive for a few seconds. That won’t happen, though. The champ wins this in almost any fashion that takes her fancy. Armbar? Easy. Knockout? Sure. Decision? That would require extra effort to carry Correia the distance. I’ll go with the standard first-round submission.

Rousey, Submission, Rd. 1