College Football: Ranking the Top 10 Heisman Candidates in 2015
Running backs figure to make up most of the Heisman Trophy contenders in 2015.
College football is set to have its best crop of running backs in recent memory due to players like Georgia’s Nick Chubb, Pittsburgh’s James Conner and Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott all returning to school.
A quarterback has won the award nine times in the last 10 years, but with many of the nation’s top signal-callers from last season gone, it is a definite possibility the award could go elsewhere.
Here is a look at the top 10 candidates to win college football’s most prestigious honor. The rankings will be based individually off the players' projected statistics. The players will also be judged on projected team success and national exposure because, whether it is fair or not, players on winning teams play in bigger games, and the award historically favors this aspect.
Honorable Mentions
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These players almost made the cut, but they have some things working against them.
Royce Freeman should again be one of the Pac-12’s best running backs after experiencing a breakout freshman season for the Ducks. He plays in a high-powered offense, but Oregon has some uncertainty on that side of the ball. The team must replace three starters on the offensive line, and the quarterback situation is still unsettled. He could struggle to match his 2014 numbers.
Jeremy Johnson spent the last two years as a backup, but he is primed to have a huge year. He plays in head coach Gus Malzahn’s explosive Auburn offense, and the team returns a strong offensive line and a plethora of playmakers, including star receiver D’haquille Williams. It would be no surprise to see Johnson contending for the award, but it is too early to put him in the top 10 with no real starting experience.
Samaje Perine broke out with a huge freshman season that finished with 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns rushing for the Oklahoma Sooners. He ran behind a strong offensive line that must replace three starters from a year ago. His situation is similar to Freeman’s, except Oregon will likely be a better team.
As the only real defensive player with a shot at winning the Heisman, Scooby Wright nearly makes this list. He was a monster in 2014, racking up 163 tackles, 29 for a loss, and 14 sacks. The last defensive player to contend for the award was Manti Te’o, but Notre Dame was about to play for a national title. Arizona will be good this year, but not good enough for Wright to win.
10. Paul Perkins, UCLA
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UCLA is set to return 18 starters from a team that finished 10-3 last season. Paul Perkins will be the star of the Bruins, but there is one question that is holding him back from being higher in these rankings.
Who will be the quarterback?
Jerry Neuheisel, Josh Rosen and Asiantii Woulard are competing to replace Brett Hundley behind center. Had Hundley returned for his senior season, UCLA would be a national title contender.
The effectiveness of the quarterback will have a huge impact on whether Perkins can challenge for the Heisman. Hundley was one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, which really helped Perkins rush for 1,575 yards and nine touchdowns while also catching 26 balls and two scores.
The good news is the offensive line returns all five starters, which will really boost Perkins’ chances. If UCLA finds an answer at quarterback, defenses will have to respect the pass, and Perkins’ numbers will definitely improve from last year, even if he still loses some goal-line touchdowns to Myles Jack.
Perkins also has the benefit of playing in some big-time games against highly ranked teams like Oregon and USC. Big performances in those contests will land Perkins higher in the Heisman discussion, but the QB issue puts him here for now.
9. James Conner, Pittsburgh
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Conner was an absolute monster in 2014, and he should be in position for a repeat performance.
He rushed for 1,765 yards and an absurd 26 touchdowns to lead Pitt to a 6-7 record. The team should be improved, with nine starters returning on offense.
A big part of Conner’s Heisman chances depend on his teammates. The team returns four starters on the offensive line, but the loss of tackle T.J. Clemmings will hurt, as Conner frequently ran behind him. Quarterback Chad Voytik and star receiver Tyler Boyd also return, so opposing defenses cannot sell out to stop the run, which will benefit Conner.
The strength of Conner’s Heisman campaign will depend on Pitt’s season. If the team can find its way into the top 20, it will tremendously help the junior’s chances. Pitt also has numerous nationally televised games that will come against Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame, which Conner must excel in.
Conner will have plenty of highlight reel plays with his trucking ability at 6’2” and 240 pounds. He is a running back, though, which puts him at a slight disadvantage. If he played on a higher-profile team and the award was not so heavily swayed toward quarterbacks, Conner would certainly be higher on this list.
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8. Cody Kessler, USC
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Cody Kessler returns to USC for his senior season after being one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in 2014.
The California native threw for 3,826 yards with 39 touchdowns and only five picks, but the Trojans have some holes to fill on offense that could hurt Kessler’s numbers in 2015 and thus damage his Heisman chances.
Receiver Nelson Agholor and running back Buck Allen are gone to the NFL, which leaves Kessler without his two most lethal playmakers on offense, as the two combined for 145 receptions last season.
USC has depth at running back, and second-leading receiver JuJu Smith returns, which will help Kessler. It will be imperative, though, that players like receiver Darreus Rogers and running back Justin Davis step up to help Kessler.
Kessler has the benefit of being a quarterback and also playing on a team just named No. 10 on the preseason coaches poll. This puts him ahead of Conner and Perkins at the moment, but USC must find some playmakers on offense for Kessler to seriously contend for the Heisman.
7. Derrick Henry, Alabama
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Of all the players on this list, Derrick Henry has the most potential to jump up and win this award.
Technically a backup in 2014, Henry led Alabama in rushing with 990 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also made the most of his chances in the pass game as he racked up 133 yards and two scores on only five catches. With T.J. Yeldon off to the NFL, Amari Cooper as well, Henry is the undisputed focal point of the Crimson Tide’s offense.
That is a scary proposition for fellow SEC defenses. At 6’3” and 240 pounds, Henry is just as powerful as Connor, but he is faster and quicker.
Alabama will be a top-five team all season and will be involved in numerous big games playing in the vaunted SEC West. However, the team is unsettled at quarterback, which could negatively impact Henry’s performance. If not for that, Henry would be near the top of these rankings.
6. Leonard Fournette, LSU
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Much of what was said about Henry also applies to Leonard Fournette.
Fournette answered the hype surrounding his freshman season in 2014 by rushing for 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns while getting better every week. Like Henry will be for Alabama, Fournette will be the focal point of LSU’s offense.
Fournette will also have no problem finding big stages to shine on in front of the entire country. He will need to stand out more than Henry since LSU is not expected to be as strong as Alabama.
Fournette is ahead of Henry on this list since he has slightly accomplished more in his first season as the starter, and LSU will have an advantage at offensive line over Alabama with more returning starters. The Tigers also are dealing with uncertainty at quarterback, which is why Fournette is not ranked higher.
5. J.T. Barrett or Cardale Jones
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The biggest question for Ohio State is not if they will get great quarterback play, but rather who will be providing it.
J.T. Barrett was phenomenal in 2014, throwing for 2,834 yards and 34 touchdowns while also rushing for 938 yards and 11 scores. Cardale Jones took over for the injured Barret the last three games and led the Buckeyes to a national championship.
Barrett should have the edge to start as a more proven player, but Jones has an equally great chance to win the Heisman. Ohio State is a major program that will be televised every week as the defending champs, and, given the team’s schedule, there is a high likelihood of an undefeated regular season.
The reason the Ohio State quarterback is not higher is due to the current unknowns surrounding who will actually be the starter. Until that is known, one cannot definitively evaluate each player’s chances against the rest of the field.
In addition, the focus of the Buckeyes’ offense will be Elliott, which takes away from either quarterback.
4. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
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Mississippi State surprised a lot of people by fielding one of the best teams in the country in 2014, and Dak Prescott was the main reason why.
He established himself as the nation’s premier dual-threat quarterback with his Cam Newton-like size and speed and strong throwing ability. Prescott was also the leading candidate to win the Heisman for a large part of last season.
Prescott’s numbers are comparable to Barrett’s. The senior threw for 3,449 yards and 27 touchdowns while running for 986 yards and 14 scores. What sets Prescott apart from the Ohio State quarterbacks is the level of competition.
Playing in the SEC West is a huge factor for solidifying Prescott’s play and case to win the Heisman. The division has five teams in the coaches poll, and Mississippi State and Texas A&M were the next highest vote receivers.
The reason Prescott is not at the top of the list is because the Bulldogs are not as strong as they were last season. Prescott also loses running back Josh Robinson to the NFL, which puts more of a burden on the quarterback. Thus, Prescott may struggle to match last year’s numbers.
3. Nick Chubb, Georgia
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Georgia’s starting running back last season was a Heisman favorite, and even with Todd Gurley gone, this year is no different.
Gurley missed about half of 2014 with injuries, which put the burden on Chubb, only a freshman, to perform. He certainly came through by finishing with 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns rushing and 213 yards and two scores receiving in only eight full games.
If Chubb put up those kinds of numbers in only half of a season, imagine what he will do in a full year. The Georgia native could easily top 2,000 yards rushing this season with upward of 20 touchdowns. He will have the support up front to do it, as the Bulldogs return four starters on the offensive line.
Playing in the SEC both helps and hurts Chubb’s Heisman chances. He will get plenty of exposure to showcase himself, but Georgia also has a high possibility of losing a few games, which the two players above him on this list do not.
Chubb’s projected statistics put him in serious contention to win the Heisman. He could suffer a similar fate as Melvin Gordon did last year by being a contender due to stats but ultimately losing out due to team record and not being a quarterback.
2. Trevone Boykin, TCU
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Trevone Boykin broke out in 2014 and nearly landed the Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff as a result.
TCU’s offense should be even better than the one that finished sixth in total yards and won a share of the Big 12 Championship. Boykin will have his top three receivers back from last season in addition to leading rusher Aaron Green and four starters on the offensive line.
Boykin threw for 3,901 yards and 33 touchdowns while rushing for 707 yards and eight scores. His numbers this season project to be even higher in a conference that does not exactly emphasize defense.
TCU is No. 2 in the coaches poll, so Boykin will definitely have the benefit of playing on a contending team. In order to win, TCU will have to go undefeated. The team has some tough road games at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in addition to closing out the year with Baylor, so that could make or break Boykin’s Heisman chances.
The margin is slim, but Boykin is not the Heisman front-runner at this point. He has the benefit of playing quarterback, but he does not play on a team with the same prestige as the leader on this list, and the odds of ending up undefeated are not as strong, either.
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
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It is not a slam-dunk choice, but Elliott is the current Heisman favorite.
Elliott is arguably the best running back in the nation, which he proved in 2014 by rushing for 1,878 yards and 18 touchdowns, including four in the national title game against Oregon.
Those numbers will most certainly improve this season. Ohio State returns four starters on the offensive line and a plethora of other weapons on offense for defenses to focus on. The Buckeyes also have a favorable schedule and will likely finish the regular season undefeated. No other player on this list can say the same, other than Elliott’s teammates.
Elliott also plays for the No. 1 team in the country, which will stand as the season goes along. He will also be featured heavily on television throughout the year.
As a player expected to put up huge numbers on the country’s top team, Elliott fits all the criteria of this list and the formula for winning the Heisman Trophy. The award is his to lose entering the 2015 season.
All statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com.
All information relating to returning starters comes from Phil Steele's projections.
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