Jessica Aguilar vs. Claudia Gadelha: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 190 is a seven-fight main card, and the opening bout is a possible title eliminator at 115 pounds.

No. 1-ranked contender Claudia Gadelha squares off against former No. 1-ranked overall strawweight Jessica Aguilar.

Aguilar has finally made her way to the UFC. The former World Series of Fighting strawweight champion had a good run of fights in Bellator, before the promotion closed down their women's divisions, that included a contentious decision win over Megumi Fujii. After choosing WSOF over Invicta FC and other promotions, Aguilar had trouble finding credible opposition.

Meanwhile, Invicta FC and the UFC moved forward with a solid roster of the rest of the best. Carla Esparza, Gadelha and others either went on The Ultimate Fighter or debuted straight away in the promotion to establish themselves as the elite. Aguilar's debut will show everyone where she truly stands in the hierarchy of the division.

Which fighter has the edge to get the next title shot? Let's look at the head-to-toe breakdown for the opening pay-per-view contest.

Striking

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This will likely be an even fight no matter where it takes place. These two women are two of the very best in the division, and two of the most well-rounded. We will be splitting hairs in each category.

Aguilar's stand-up is not her strongest attribute, but it has improved greatly. She trains out of American Top Team, and she is getting some of the best instruction in the sport. The issue for Aguilar is that she hasn't gotten to show her striking against other quality strikers in years.

Gadelha has. And she looked pretty good.

Gadelha stood and exchanged with Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their close battle. She was dropped once by a vicious uppercut, but aside from that she held her own against the former muay thai world champion. That speaks volumes to her striking ability.

The Brazilian won't outclass Aguilar, but she has proven enough to have the edge on the feet.

Edge: Gadelha

Grappling

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Jessica Aguilar

Both women love taking top position on the mat. Gadelha, according to FightMetric statistics, tries for an average of six takedowns per 15 minutes. She completes more than half of those attempts.

One of the reasons she is able to complete the attempts is her strength. She is one of the strongest women in the division, and she can simply outmuscle her opponents. Sometimes her technique is not all there.

Aguilar is more technical. That's the difference, and that's why she holds the edge.

The ATT product also won't be severely outmuscled by Gadelha. Aguilar is no slouch in the strength department. We will get to see who is the stronger of the two if they hit the fence clinched up, and I believe that will be an even 50-50 battle.

Aguilar holds a small edge due to better overall technique and defense.

Edge: Aguilar

Submissions

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Five of Aguilar's first seven professional victories came by way of submission. Although, one was a questionable verbal submission against Angela Magana. Six of Gadelha's first seven professional wins came via submission.

Since that time Gadelha has not finished a fight by submission, and Aguilar added three more including one in 2014.

Gadelha gets a slight advantage, but this is the most even category. Early in the fight, Gadelha will have the edge, but as the fight draws on, Aguilar will have the better opportunities. Gadelha has a stronger jiu-jitsu background, which gives her more outs against JAG.

A submission finish is unlikely. Both have shown tremendous defense in this area, and both prefer ground-and-pound.

Edge: Gadelha

X-Factors

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Aguilar's X-Factor: Evolution

This is the biggest factor in the fight. Not only how much Aguilar has evolved, but how much has the division evolved.

Aguilar's best wins are over Carla Esparza when she was still very green; Lisa Ellis, who is a natural atomweight; and Megumi Fujii. The first fight against Fujii was a contentious decision, and the rematch saw Aguilar poke Fujii in the eye multiple times, which drastically altered that fight. Those are her signature wins.

Since that time, 115-pound women have evolved greatly. Perhaps none more than Gadelha. How good is Aguilar? We will find out on Saturday.

Gadelha's X-Factor: Cardio

In true Nova Uniao fashion, Gadelha is big for the weight class. She is extremely muscular, and that demands a lot of oxygen.

She has slowed down considerably in the past, and that will be very bad against Aguilar. A tired Gadelha will be more easily taken down, and more easily controlled. It will also open up potential submission opportunities for the ATT fighter.

This is the biggest hole in her game.

Prediction

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This will be a close fight, but the more likely winner is Gadelha.

Gadelha has shown quality stand-up skills against the best striker in the division and has excellent ground abilities as well. Aguilar is getting better in the stand-up, but she is not as loose as the Brazilian. Leg kicks will also play a big role early.

If Aguilar is to win, it will be because Gadelha tires out, and that is a very distinct possibility. Aguilar needs to force grueling positions such as clinching against the fence. She needs to make Gadelha expend a lot of energy in the first round.

Gadelha should take the first two rounds, but she will lose the third when she won't be able to keep up the pace. Aguilar will take it and hope for some questionable judging.

The post-fight stats will show Gadelha won this with a decisive edge with her strikes. It'll be enough, and it will set up Gadelha-Jedrzejczyk II.

Prediction: Gadelha defeats Aguilar by decision