Win or Lose, Troy Tulowitzki Makes Blue Jays Must-See TV

It was shaping up to be a quiet Monday evening in the baseball world. There was some decent drama between the lines, but nothing major. Likewise, no momentous trades were on the horizon.

That is, not until the Toronto Blue Jays brewed up a gigantic, fire-breathing monster of a deal. And though it may not make them the team they want to be, it absolutely makes them must-see TV.

As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports first reported, the Blue Jays have acquired All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the Colorado Rockies. Jose Reyes is the main piece going to Colorado in the swap, which looks like this, per Rosenthal:

According to Jon Heyman of CBS and Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, well-regarded right-handers Miguel Castro and Jeff Hoffman are the primary prospects headed to Colorado. Heyman also adds that there's no money involved. Tulo's remaining contract (either $98 million or $109 million after this season) is taking the place of Reyes' remaining contract (either $48 million or $66 million following 2015) in Toronto.

And like that, the Blue Jays and Rockies have pulled off a trade that's going to have us talking well past Friday's non-waiver trade deadline. That's because of the names involved and because of just how suddenly this deal came to be.

As has become customary this time of year, there had been plenty of chatter about Tulowitzki being traded this summer. But as per usual, chatter is all it seemed to be. As Rosenthal reported, the New York Mets checked in on Tulowitzki and got the sense that the Rockies didn't want to move him. And for his part, Tulo had no interest in being moved, either.

"I didn't sign my contract because I wanted to be somewhere else," Tulowitzki told Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com July 22. "I signed my contract because I want to be with the Rockies."

Nonetheless, here we are. Tulowitzki was a Rockie as recently as a handful of hours ago, and now he's a Blue Jay. And though it's indeed possible to be skeptical about what the deal means for Toronto, it's also impossible to not get excited about what it means for the club.

Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

At the least, the Blue Jays have made a substantial offensive upgrade at shortstop. Reyes wasn't having a "bad" year by any stretch, but he wasn't having the kind of season Tulo is.

We can prove as much with a quick glance at some numbers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wRC+
Troy Tulowitzki	351	12	0	.300	.348	.471	.818	108
Jose Reyes	311	4	16	.285	.322	.385	.708	95

The Blue Jays are losing something in the stolen-base department in swapping out Reyes for Tulo. But they're gaining something in homers, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and overall park-adjusted offense (that's wRC+). I'd call that a good swap.

Oh, and there's the reality that Tulo's overall numbers hide how well he's swinging it right now. He went into Monday night's game against the Chicago Cubs with a .341 average and .960 OPS over his last 43 games, making him one of baseball's hottest hitters.

And lest anyone bring up Tulo's road splits away from the ever-hitter-friendly Coors Field as a red flag, ESPN's Dan Shulman points out that there is no such deficiency:

Bottom line: The Blue Jays have taken a position where they weren't getting great offense and upgraded it with a great hitter. On the run-generation side of things, they've pulled off a major coup.

But this leads us, of course, to what you and the rest of the known universe are already thinking: Run generation is not Toronto's problem.

Indeed. The Blue Jays ranked first in MLB in runs scored and OPS before acquiring Tulo. And while those numbers figure to go up now that he's in the fold, you have to wonder whether it'll be enough to account for their issues with preventing runs.

That's where the Blue Jays haven't had it easy, as they rank 12th in the American League in runs allowed. That's in part due to a pitching staff that's been undermanned since Opening Day and in part because they don't have the defense to cover for it. Toronto's defense is good, but it's not good enough to squeeze into the top 10 in defensive efficiency, according to Baseball Prospectus.

To this end, going from Reyes to Tulowitzki might not be the upgrade you'd think. Tulo has the better defensive reputation, but the defensive metrics aren't crazy about what either he or Reyes has done with the leather in 2015:

Player	Inn	DRS	UZR
Jose Reyes	591.1	-8	-2.7
Troy Tulowitzki	677.1	0	-4.1

Mind you, just because the metrics are basically "Eh...I don't know, man" on whether the Blue Jays have upgraded defensively in going from Reyes to Tulo doesn't mean the deal itself is a waste. The offensive upgrade is too big for that.

But this does hint that Tulo's arrival probably won't fix Toronto's biggest weakness as much as it's going to add to its biggest strength. And with that being the case, the Blue Jays could find it difficult to dramatically improve on their current status as a .500 ballclub at 50-50.

And therein lies this deal's bust potential.

If the Blue Jays don't improve, a trade that's clearly designed to push them toward October could very well come up short. Toronto is seven games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East and three games out in the wild-card hunt. To earn a playoff spot, anything less than dramatic improvement may not cut it.

We can, however, end this thing on a positive note by saying this: Even if the Tulowitzki trade doesn't make the Blue Jays that much better, it should make them loads upon loads of fun to watch.

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Obviously, you can't lead the majors in runs and OPS without an explosive lineup. And even before Tulo arrived, "explosive" was the perfect word to describe Toronto's collection of hitters.

With Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin and Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays entered the week in possession of four players with OPS' of at least .780 and at least 14 home runs. Add in Devon Travis and his .844 OPS and Chris Colabello and his .863 OPS, and the Blue Jays were packing a lot of firepower.

And now this lineup has one of the great offensive shortstops in the game. Cue Joel Sherman of the New York Post for what that means:

The one catch, as Sherman notes, is that Toronto's lineup skews heavily to the right side of the plate.

But this shouldn't be too big a problem. Toronto entered Monday tied for fifth in OPS against right-handed pitching (.754). Tulo himself has done just fine against righties, hitting to the tune of a .770 OPS and blasting nine of his 12 home runs against them.

So, you can picture it now. In the season's last two months, there should be game after game after game where the Blue Jays lineup is just unloading on pitchers who are helpless to stop it. 

It'll be especially fun to watch Tulowitzki and Donaldson team up to form the most dangerous left side of the infield in baseball, and then pitchers will have to worry about Bautista, Encarnacion and Martin. Watching the Blue Jays lineup go to work will be like watching an Expendables film, minus the wrinkles.

Sure, maybe it'll all be for naught, thanks to Toronto's inability to prevent runs as well as it generates them. But between now and season's end, the Blue Jays should be a hell of a show. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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