Scott Kazmir Trade Is Smart, Clear Message Astros Are Going for It in 2015

If you're just now joining us from an extended stay underneath a rock or inside a hypersleep chamber, yes, the Houston Astros really are 53-43 and in the middle of the American League playoff picture. 

That puts them in a position to go for it. And on this particular Thursday, the Astros have made it clear that they're going for it, all right.

Recent weeks have been thick with rumors about the Astros being on the prowl for a starting pitcher, preferably one with talent to spare. Early Thursday afternoon, they sent up the "Mission Accomplished" banner:

Given that reporters like CBS Sports' Jon Heyman and the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich linked the Astros to pitchers such as Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, hearing that they've settled for Scott Kazmir may sound like a letdown.

But don't feel that way. Kazmir may not have much brand-name recognition. But Houston's deal for him is easy to like on two grounds: he's quietly a darn good pitcher, and the Astros got him for cheap.

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Through 18 starts this season, the 31-year-old left-hander is working on a 2.38 ERA that ranked 10th among all qualified starters heading into play Thursday. And this is hardly coming out of left field, as Kazmir owns a 3.22 ERA over the last two calendar years. That checks in among the top 25 among qualified starters, which goes to show that he's been quite good for quite a while now.

Hence why Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow is feeling giddy at the moment. Via Drellich, here are his thoughts:

The idea of the Astros now having "a potentially great rotation" might sound a bit strong. But if Kazmir can hold up his end of the bargain, time could prove Luhnow correct.

When Kazmir was first making a name for himself back in the mid-2000s, he was a classic power left-hander. He got by on a fastball, which sat in the low to mid-90s, and a sharp slider—tools that made him one of the game's elite strikeout pitchers between 2004 and 2007.

If you haven't been keeping up with Kazmir more recently, however, you should know that he's now a completely different pitcher.

At an average of 91.4 miles per hour, Kazmir still gets plenty of zip on his heat. But his game is based much more on deception and location than it is on power.

As Brooks Baseball can vouch, he's gone from being a fastball-slider guy to one who will mix and match a four-seamer, a sinker and a cutter to confuse hitters, and a changeup to get them off balance. He also doesn't throw many good pitches to hit, pitching righties mainly down below the knees and lefties low and away.

This approach results in a lot of easy outs. Kazmir owns a better-than-average 8.29 strikeouts per nine innings, and he's a good contact manager. In addition to a solid 45.9 ground-ball percentage, he owns a hard-hit rate of 22.9 percent that puts him in the top five among qualified starters:

Rank	Player	Team	Hard%
1	Dallas Keuchel	Astros	20.2
2	Sonny Gray	Athletics	21.5
3	Francisco Liriano	Pirates	22.6
4	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	22.8
5	Scott Kazmir	Astros	22.9

As much as anything, this helps explain why Kazmir is getting away with a well-below-average .262 average on balls in play. And he shouldn't have much trouble maintaining that with the Astros, as Baseball Prospectus' figures say he's only taking a slight step down in defensive efficiency in swapping Oakland's defense for Houston's.

As good as all this sounds, there is one concern regarding Kazmir's immediate future with the Astros: Will he be able to stay healthy?

That's something he's had trouble doing throughout his career, and the struggle hasn't quit in 2015. Though neither turned out to be anything serious, Kazmir had scares with his shoulder and arm this season. Neither is a problem now, but both are red flags that could blow up in Houston's face as Kazmir puts more and more innings on his arm in August, September and, hopefully, October.

If Kazmir can stay healthy, though, it's hard not to like what the Astros have in their rotation.

Pat Sullivan/Associated Press

At the top is Cy Young favorite Dallas Keuchel, who leads the AL in ERA, WHIP and innings largely because he is an even better contact manager than Kazmir. He may be the best in the game, as he ranks second in soft-hit percentage in addition to first in hard-hit percentage.

Meanwhile, next to Kazmir, you have Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers Jr. McHugh has overcome a brutal stretch in May and June to settle down to the tune of a 2.85 ERA over his last seven starts. He's also been generally very good in his 45 starts with Houston, beginning in 2014. As for McCullers, he's a bundle of electric stuff whose 2.52 ERA in 11 starts puts him square in the AL Rookie of the Year race.

All told, the Astros now have a pretty good starting foursome. At the least, it will enhance their likelihood of getting into the postseason via a wild-card spot. At best, it'll be the key to their taking first place in the AL West back from the Los Angeles Angels.

So, suffice it to say the Astros are in a pretty good position. And even better, they didn't have to pay too steep a price to get there.

In giving up Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham, the Astros only surrendered their No. 19 and No. 22 prospects, as ranked by MLB.com. And though those rankings look a bit dated now—MiLB.com's Jake Steiner likes what he's seeing from Mengden and Nottingham—it's important that neither of the two is named Mark Appel, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana or Vincent Velasquez. These are Houston's four best and most MLB-ready prospects, and it gave up none of them to get Kazmir.

This is to say this trade dramatically bolsters the Astros' chances to win now without really compromising their chances to keep winning later. Given the kind of trajectory the organization is on, that's exactly the kind of deal it needed to make.

So if you haven't yet come to grips with Houston's winning ways, what the Astros have done on Thursday is send a clear message: Get used to it and stay used to it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.