Ashes 2015: England Face Up to Tough Selection Choices Ahead of 3rd Test

After the resounding defeat to Australia in the second Ashes Test, England are facing a dilemma over whether to stick or twist with their team. 

The bowlers will get a reprieve due to the benign nature of the surface at Lord’s, London, even though the tourists managed to pick up 20 wickets on it inside four days. 

But, it is the batting that is England's major area of concern. 

Like a hard-boiled egg, the top is getting knocked off very quickly, exposing the goodness in the middle. That is ideal when it comes to eating breakfast, but it’s not what you want to happen consistently in Test cricket.

England had 29 runs on the scoreboard when they lost their third wicket in the first innings at Lord's. They managed to do slightly better second time around, getting to 42 before Gary Ballance was caught behind.

This is not a new problem: In seven Tests in 2015, they have only passed three figures by the time the third wicket has fallen on two occasions.

However, it must be remembered that the scoreline in this year’s Ashes is still just 1-1.

The loss at Lord’s has quickly buried the memory of England’s triumph in the series opener in Cardiff. There, on another slow, low surface, the hosts were the side who won with a day to spare.

The third match of the series, at Edgbaston in Birmingham, does not start until July 29.

While Australia travel to Derby to play a tour match, England’s selectors must work out the best way forward.

Here are the options they will consider when trying to solve the current top-order malaise.

Make changes

Scott Heppell/Associated Press

The knee-jerk reaction to a heavy defeat is to point the finger of blame. England’s batsmen are rightly in the firing line, and heads could roll.

The issue is, though, it is tough to figure out who stays and who goes.

Adam Lyth was the last man in, but could he be the first one out? The Yorkshire opener has managed 50 runs in four innings so far against Australia, but he did score a century at Headingley in just his second Test appearance.

County colleague Ballance still averages 47.76 in Test action, but that number has been going the wrong way in recent times after he flourished at the start of his international career.

Ian Bell, meanwhile, is like a classic sports car: He still looks good, but reliability is an issue. The right-hander has only passed 50 once in his last 12 Test knocks and has been dismissed for one or less on seven occasions since his 143 in the opening match of the series in the West Indies, back in April.

England’s management team needs to work out if Lyth and Ballance can blossom in the intense heat of an Ashes battle. They also have to figure out if Bell is past his sell-by date, or just currently off the boil.

It’s a matter of opinions, and everyone has one.

Former England captain Bob Willis told Sky Sports: "To my eye, there is no way that Lyth and Ballance are going to get runs against this Australian attack this summer.”

Yet Anthony McGrath, an ex-team-mate of the pair at Yorkshire, feels England should keep the faith, per Sky Sports: “Gary’s done well at three. Like Adam, no need to panic at the moment. Keep him there and I’m sure he’ll come back and score some runs.” 

As for Bell, Dean Wilson in the Mirror wrote on Monday morning: “Ten years ago Ian Bell made six and 21 at Edgbaston in the win that started the ball rolling for England in the greatest series of all. In 10 days’ time, a similar set of scores at the same ground, his home ground, will almost certainly signal the end of his international career." 

England’s selectors are not going to dramatically drop the trio. Likewise, it is a risk to ignore the numbers and stand firm.

There is one player in county cricket who is knocking hard on the door—Yorkshire’s Jonny Bairstow.

On the same day England folded faster than an origami expert at Lord’s, he was making 139 for his county against Worcestershire.

His case for a Test recall is now ridiculously strong: The right-hander has scored 906 runs in the LV= County Championship at an average of 100.66 this summer. Somewhere, somehow, England might decide they need to squeeze him into their lineup.

Shuffle the pack

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

Instead of bringing in fresh faces, England could conceivably just move around the ones they have.

If he retains his place, Lyth stays as captain Alastair Cook’s opening partner. That is his natural position, the one he has filled with great success in county cricket.

Ballance, though, could drop down to five or six in the order. That is the place in the order where he caught the attention of the selectors initially, while playing for Yorkshire.

He looked like the long-term replacement for Jonathan Trott at three when he made a trio of centuries in the summer of 2014, but now his footwork—or lack of it—has become exposed at the highest level.

While Ballance looks stuck in the crease and intent only on survival, his counterpart for Australia, Steven Smith, made 273 runs at Lord’s using a technique that, while a little unorthodox, allowed him to always be positive. 

But, if England wishes to stick with the slow-but-steady Ballance, the solution could be to place him in between Joe Root and Ben Stokes, two players who naturally score quickly, in the order.

That would mean Bell rising to three, a slot he has filled before with mixed success. In 22 Tests in the position he has an average of 39.27.

Although history, and current form for that matter, suggests a promotion would be unwise, the 33-year-old needs to stand up and be counted as one of the squad’s senior men.

If he doesn’t, then his time at the top is done.

Alternatively, the management team could shift Root to bat at three. He, like Bell, has batted there before in Test cricket, stepping in to take the place of Trott during the last Ashes tour before being dropped himself for the last match of the series.

A recall for Bairstow would see him slotted in at five or six, pushing Root—and also maybe Stokes—up.

In the end, however, England might be just be doing their own version of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Keep the faith

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

The most conservative option of the lot, England’s selection panel might just decide to give the team that were soundly beaten at Lord’s an opportunity to put things right.

Lyth scored a century two Tests ago, Ballance and Bell have excellent Test records and there are not a plethora of players, aside from Bairstow, ready to be drafted in from around the counties.

Former skipper Nasser Hussain told Sky Sports in the immediate aftermath of the second Test: “You don’t overreact when you win and say you are going to wallop the Aussies 5-0 and you don’t go the other way when you lose. You make a change when there is someone better.”

Selecting the same faces at Edgbaston would be a gutsy call, considering the top order has been failing as a unit for some time.

It would also say little for county cricket if Bairstow, in the form of his life, did not at least get included in the squad for the next Test.

These are the tough decisions that England must make now.

Forget politics, a week (well, eight days between the end of the first Test and the conclusion of the second) is a long time in international cricket.

All stats used in the article are from ESPN Cricinfo