49ers: Assessing Jarryd Hayne's Chances of Making the Final Roster in 2015

Does Jarryd Hayne have a realistic chance to make the San Francisco 49ers’ final 53-man roster in 2015?

If you haven’t heard of Hayne, here’s his background: He was the Rugby League Player of the Year in 2009 and 2014, and he is one of the best athletes in the world.

The Niners signed him this offseason to play running back and to return kicks. They gave him a three-year, $1.583 million contract with $108,000 guaranteed, according to Spotrac.

Before they signed him, Hayne (6’2", 226 lbs) ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at a workout in December, according to Nick Shook of NFL.com. If the NFL had invited Hayne to the combine and he had run that same time, it would have one of the fastest among the running backs.

Melvin Gordon, first-round draft pick of the San Diego Chargers and former Wisconsin running back, ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine this year. Gordon and Hayne are in the same class athletically.

But Hayne has never played football. And you can tell he hasn’t when you watch him practice. He runs upright and has what coaches call “poor pad level”—not surprising considering Rugby League players don’t wear pads.

“I let (Jarryd) know there could be a play where you come through there and you’re tree-top tall,” head coach Jim Tomsula said during minicamp, “and 53’s (linebacker NaVorro Bowman) going to hit you in your chest, and I’d like you to listen now before you get the wind knocked out of you. We all know it, one of those is going to happen and we’ll be fine and we’ll get up. It’s just a little reinforcement.”

Hayne still is in the lesson-learning phase of development. He’s an experiment and not the first one the Niners have had.

In 1982, the Niners signed Renaldo Nehemiah, a former world recordholder in the 110-meter hurdles who didn’t play football in college. The Niners made him a wide receiver, and he made just 43 catches in three seasons before returning to track and field.

That experiment failed.

In 2013, the 49ers signed former Olympian Lawrence Okoye as an undrafted free agent, roughly a year after he finished 12th in the discus at the 2012 Summer Olympics.

Okoye (6’6”, 304 lbs) ran a 4.84-second 40-yard dash at a workout before the 2013 draft, per NFLDraftScout.com. Like Hayne, Okoye is one of the best athletes in the world.

Okoye spent his first season on the injured reserve list after injuring his knee against the Minnesota Vikings during the preseason. He spent his second season on the 49ers’ practice squad learning to play defensive end in the Niners’ 3-4 defense.

Okoye most likely will spend 2015 on the practice squad too—he has one year remaining of practice squad eligibility. He needs another year of development. He’s a work in progress.

And he has plenty of time to get better. He’s only 23 years old as opposed to Hayne, who’s 27.

Hayne needs to pick up the sport as soon as possible. He can’t afford to spend three years developing like Okoye. If Hayne takes that long, he’ll be 30 and almost past his prime by the time he plays his first NFL game, which would defeat the purpose of him switching sports.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

But age isn’t Hayne’s biggest obstacle—competition is. Hayne has almost no chance to crack the top three of the 49ers’ running back rotation in 2015. The current top three—Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter—are established veterans with track records of success.

Hayne is fighting for the No. 4 spot on the running back depth chart with rookie Mike Davis, whom the 49ers drafted in Round 4. Teams rarely cut fourth-round picks before they’ve played a single season. Odds are against Hayne.

Even if he plays as well as Davis during the preseason, the Niners probably would keep Davis because they’re more invested him, and he’s five years younger than Hayne.

For Hayne to make the Niners’ final roster in 2015, he would have to dominate during the preseason, and Davis would have to play extremely poorly—fumble three times and average fewer than three yards per carry. That's not likely to happen.

Realistically, Hayne’s best chance to make the 49ers’ roster will come in 2016 if backups Bush and Hunter sign with other teams during free agency. Until then, the former Rugby League Player of the Year probably has to wait his turn on the practice squad.

All quotations and practice observations obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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